US Logistics Update [Sep 6, 2025]-English

The U.S. August employment increase, a top concern for the business community, came in at just 22,000, significantly below market expectations (75,000), while the unemployment rate surged to 4.3%, the highest since 2021, fueling widespread concerns that the labor market is rapidly weakening. By sector, only healthcare saw job growth, while major industries like manufacturing, IT, finance, and services all experienced job losses. Analysts note that corporate layoff announcements have reached their highest level since 2020, signaling the labor market is entering a phase of “low employment and low income.” This makes a Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate cut (0.25 percentage points) at its September 16-17 meeting almost certain. (See Reuters survey graph below)

President Trump requested a “prompt ruling” from the Supreme Court on the federal appeals court decision that ruled tariffs under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) illegal. The tariffs affected by the ruling include the “fentanyl” tariffs on Canada, Mexico, and China, as well as reciprocal tariffs on the rest of the world. However, non-IEEPA tariffs, such as those on steel and aluminum, remain unaffected. Despite this ruling, the tariffs will remain in place on a provisional basis until October 14th. Legal and market experts assess that the likelihood of tariff removal remains low going forward. This is because President Trump has made tariffs a core tool of his trade and security policy, as well as an election strategy card, making it highly probable he will continue to maintain or impose tariffs in some form. Therefore, it is more realistic for companies to prepare for scenarios of long-term maintenance or even strengthening of tariffs rather than expecting their removal.

U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) announced on the 4th that it conducted a large-scale immigration raid at the Hyundai Motor battery plant under construction in Ellabell, Georgia, arresting 475 individuals. This is described as the largest single-site raid since ICE's establishment, targeting illegal entrants, workers exploiting the visa waiver program, or those who overstayed their authorized stay. Experts pointed out that this crackdown targets not only local workforce management but also the practice of entering on ESTA or tourist visas to perform long-term business assignments, emphasizing that companies need to exercise greater caution in managing workforce deployments.

Premier Alliance halts PS5 service... U.S.-bound container demand clearly slowing
Premier Alliance members ONE, HMM, and Yang Ming suspended the Pacific South 5 (PS5) service to the U.S. West Coast just four months after its launch, with the final departure being the NYK Constellation on September 1. This suspension stems from reduced cargo volumes from Asia to the U.S., with JOC assessing it as symbolic of the recent slump in demand on Pacific routes. According to Vision and D&B data, bookings from China to the U.S. at the end of August were down 33% year-on-year, and carriers are canceling over 15% of their capacity in September. While some carriers aim to maintain the General Rate Increase (GRI) implemented on September 1st, the market has already seen reductions of $100 to $200. Although rates from Shanghai to the U.S. West Coast have risen 33% over the past two weeks to around $2,189 per FEU, special rates around $1,600 are emerging among forwarders. Carriers anticipate demand recovery based on last-minute volume increases before China's National Day holiday and expanding durable goods consumption in the US. However, forwarders forecast, “Significant volume growth for the remainder of this year is unlikely.”

Gemini Sets New Standard in Shipping Services with ‘90% Reliability Achieved’
Gemini alliance between Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd, has achieved its 90% vessel schedule punctuality target just five months after launch. This breakthrough resolves the chronic delays and uncertainty long plaguing the global container shipping industry, setting a new benchmark for shipping services. Gemini's achievement represents a transformative change beyond mere schedule adherence improvement. For shippers, reduced shipment schedule volatility opens opportunities to lower inventory levels and costs. Carriers gain the potential to share in some of the cost savings realized by shippers through premium freight rates. Whether Gemini's success proves a one-off or establishes a new service standard across the shipping industry is a highly anticipated development.

Vietnamese Air Cargo Exports Surge
JOC reports that air cargo shipments from Vietnam are surging as manufacturers diversify production bases to Vietnam amid the fallout from U.S. tariffs on China. According to Rotate data, high-value electronics exports from Vietnam to the U.S. surged 91% in the first half of this year. Computer exports jumped 113%, while earphones and headphones grew 318%. Notably, laptop shipments reached 71,000 tons. Meanwhile, while the U.S. imposed a 20% tariff on Vietnamese exports starting in July—lower than the high rates (over 40%) applied to Chinese goods—it threatened to crack down on transshipments of Chinese goods via Vietnam. However, no actual cases have been reported. The surge in exports from Vietnam is assessed not as a short-term phenomenon but as aligned with the broader trend of global supply chain restructuring, and is expected to persist long-term.