US Logistics Update [Sep 26, 2026]-English

The White House announced the outcomes of the summit in a fact sheet titled “President Trump Advances a Fair and Mutually Beneficial Relationship with China Through a Historic State Visit,” published on its website on the 25th. First, the two leaders agreed to use the term “superintelligence (SI)” instead of “artificial intelligence (AI),” agreed to establish a bilateral communication channel to enable immediate contact in the event of an SI-related incident, and decided to continue follow-up exchanges through November 2026. It was also announced that President Xi officially invited President Trump to the APEC Summit to be held in Shenzhen, China, in November. Furthermore, the two countries concurred that imposing tolls on international waterways is unacceptable and reaffirmed their shared stance to counter Iran, which claims control over the Strait of Hormuz. In the economic sphere, they agreed to reduce tariffs on $30 billion worth of non-sensitive goods from both sides, focusing on consumer goods such as agricultural products, seafood, and medical devices (from the U.S.) and small appliances, toys, and car seats (from China). The trade war truce was also extended until January 10, 2027. Regarding the results of the summit, U.S. media generally emphasized that while the achievements were limited, the meeting was significant for maintaining dialogue and the truce. The Wall Street Journal assessed that “substantial achievements were few relative to the scale of the event, and major disagreements remain in the areas of trade and technology,” while Axios viewed the tariff negotiations on $30 billion worth of goods as a signal of easing trade tensions but noted that the announcement regarding rare earth metals—a key issue—lacked specificity. While there were no expectations that the summit would stabilize U.S.-China relations, short-term uncertainty has been significantly reduced by preventing the trade conflict from escalating further.

 Goldman Sachs forecasts that AI infrastructure spending by the five major U.S. Big Tech companies will surge by more than 50% next year, reaching $1.2 trillion. Goldman Sachs expects the growth rate of capital expenditures by Big Tech companies to gradually slow from nearly 100% this year to 54% next year and 12% in 2028, resulting in a soft landing, and estimates that total investment will reach $1.4 trillion by 2028. JP Morgan Chairman Jamie Dimon forecasts that Big Tech companies’ AI investments could rise from approximately $700 billion this year to $1 trillion next year. He noted that such massive investments could add to inflationary pressures in the short term, making it difficult to bring inflation under control, and emphasized the need to maintain a cautious stance on inflation. Meanwhile, according to an analysis by the Brookings Institution, total investment in AI-related infrastructure from 2025 to 2032 is projected to reach $10.3 trillion, which represents 3.6% of U.S. GDP. The report noted that the U.S. economy has never before invested this much in a single industry, and that U.S. investment in AI data centers and infrastructure is emerging as the largest investment in history, surpassing past investments in railroads and highway networks and representing the largest capital inflow since the railroad boom of the late 19th century.

Bloomberg reported that as government bond yields surge globally, the era of low interest rates is coming to an end and high interest rates are becoming the new normal. The yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note has surpassed 5%, and the average global government bond yield has reached 4%. The reasons investors are shunning long-term bonds and demanding higher yields include: 1) an oversupply of bonds due to soaring fiscal deficits in various countries, and 2) rising energy costs stemming from trade wars and conflicts in the Middle East are fueling inflation, and 3) on top of this, Big Tech companies are issuing massive amounts of bonds to build AI infrastructure, pushing government bonds to the sidelines in the competition for investors. With these structural headwinds converging, the trend of high government bond yields is expected to persist for the long term.

North American Vessel Dwell Times 

CBP Strengthens Oversight of Importer Registration Information (Form 5106)… Expands Potential Penalties for Inaccurate Information

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has announced a policy to strengthen oversight and enforcement regarding importer registration information (Form 5106). In a notice sent to CTPAT member companies on September 17, CBP reiterated that the registration information for the Importer of Record (IOR) must be accurate and kept up to date. The agency advised that if information is found to be inaccurate or incomplete, enforcement actions—such as the revocation of the Importer of Record (IOR) number—may be taken. Form 5106 is a mandatory document used to register the importer’s identity and business information during the U.S. import clearance process. It includes key details such as the company name, business address, EIN (Tax ID), and contact information. If the registration information does not match the actual business status, there is a possibility of additional verification, clearance delays, or other administrative actions during the clearance process. Particular caution is required when existing information has not been updated despite changes such as a business location move, a change in corporate name, a change in EIN, or a change in the designated contact person. CBP recommends that importers and customs brokers collaborate to review existing registration information and promptly reflect any necessary corrections. Meanwhile, registration information updates are processed through the Automated Commercial Environment (ACE) and are generally handled by customs brokers submitting an “Update Transaction” via the Automated Broker Interface (ABI). CBP requires the submission of accurate information that includes all mandatory data fields. The fact that CBP sent a separate alert to all CTPAT members on September 17 can be interpreted not merely as a program update but as a signal foreshadowing full-scale verification and enforcement activities in the future. Therefore, although the actual scope and intensity of enforcement have not yet been confirmed, importers need to proactively review their Form 5106 registration information.

U.S. Gasoline and Diesel Prices Continue to Rise

U.S. gasoline prices have risen by an additional 5 cents this week, and the average price of diesel in the U.S. has hit another all-time high of $6.529 per gallon. Diesel prices have risen for 11 consecutive weeks, climbing by about $1.73 compared to mid-July. Rising gasoline and diesel prices are putting increasing pressure on households and businesses to cover fuel costs. However, crude oil prices have been falling this week as threats to the Strait of Hormuz have eased.

 Review of Union Pacific-Norfolk Southern Merger Continues

The U.S. Surface Transportation Board (STB) has denied a “Motion for Summary Denial” regarding the merger application filed by Union Pacific (UP) and Norfolk Southern (NS). As a result, the regulatory review process will continue. However, this does not imply that the merger will be approved; the final decision will be determined based on the outcome of the ongoing review. This merger between the two companies is a major consolidation in the railroad industry, valued at approximately $85 billion. Competitors such as BNSF Railway and CSX, as well as major shipper groups, submitted comments to the STB in August 2026 requesting that the merger application be denied. The STB decided to continue the review, stating that “this transaction is a matter of significant importance with few precedents and requires additional evidence and discussion.” Currently, opposing shipper groups are objecting, arguing that UP and NS have failed to provide sufficient evidence that the merger is in the public interest. In particular, they contend that the companies have not adequately explained how the merger will promote rail competition, improve service, or mitigate any adverse effects resulting from the merger.

U.S. Truck Freight Volume Continues to Decline in August

According to the American Trucking Associations (ATA), U.S. trucking tonnage in August 2026 fell 0.5% from the previous month, marking the second consecutive month of decline following July. The seasonally adjusted trucking tonnage index stood at 112.7, down from 113.3 the previous month. Year-over-year, the figure fell by 1.6%, with the rate of decline widening compared to July (-0.7%). In contrast, cumulative tonnage since the beginning of the year remained 1% higher than the previous year; the ATA attributed this to robust growth in tonnage from February through April, which supported the cumulative performance. ATA Chief Economist Bob Costello assessed that the recent improvement in trucking market conditions is attributable more to a reduction in transportation capacity than to increased demand. He explained that freight volume has declined in four of the last five months and remains 4.3% below the March peak. The market views freight rates as remaining relatively firm as the contraction in transportation capacity continues, even as the recovery in freight demand remains limited.

Air Cargo Market Trends from Asia to the U.S. (September 14–20, WorldACD)

Air cargo demand from the Asia-Pacific region to the U.S. (Asia-Pacific → USA) increased by 13% year-over-year, and strong demand continues. Countries with significant growth include South Korea: +54%, Japan: +47%, China: +14%, Indonesia: +19%, Thailand: +12%, and Singapore: +10%. The spot rate for the Asia→USA route remained nearly unchanged from the previous week at $6.75 per kg but remains approximately 40% higher year-over-year. In particular, rates from Japan rose by 50% and those from Singapore by 62%. WorldACD forecasts that market activity on trans-Pacific routes (Asia→USA) is likely to intensify further over the next few days due to the impact of China’s National Day holiday.

FedEx Announces Average 5.9% Increase in U.S. Domestic Shipping Rates for 2027

FedEx, a U.S.-based express and logistics company, announced plans for new rate increases effective January 4, 2027. Rates for domestic U.S. and import/export express services are set to rise by an average of 5.9%. According to logistics consulting firm Loop, the rate increase for five out of seven major services is projected to exceed 5.9%; in particular, the Ground service is expected to see an increase of approximately 6.1% depending on the route. Various surcharges, such as the Additional Handling Surcharge and the Delivery Area Surcharge (DAS), are also set to increase significantly. Within the U.S., the Additional Handling Surcharge is scheduled to rise from the current range of $29.50 to $40.75 to $31.75 to $43.75, depending on the delivery zone. Oversize surcharges are also included in the rate increases, though industry experts note that the actual impact on shipping costs may vary significantly depending on the characteristics of each shipper’s cargo. In particular, they analyze that shippers with a high proportion of lightweight cargo, long-distance Ground services, cargo subject to additional handling fees, or deliveries to outlying areas may face cost burdens higher than the average rate of increase.