US Logistics Update [Sep 20, 2025]-English

The Federal Reserve (Fed) finally cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at its Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 17th, lowering it from the previous range of 4.25–4.50% to 4.00–4.25%. This marks the first rate cut in nine months, following five consecutive meetings where rates were held steady after the 0.25 percentage point cut in December last year. It is also the first rate cut since the start of President Trump's second term. However, the ‘big cut’ (a substantial reduction of 0.50 percentage points or more) strongly demanded by President Trump and anticipated by some market participants did not materialize. The Fed projected a median benchmark rate of 3.6% by year-end, signaling two more 0.25 percentage point cuts this year.

Chairman Powell stated, “We face a challenging situation regarding future actions, and risks

cannot be ruled out,” expressing the view that despite interest rate cuts due to labor market

weakness, inflation concerns stemming from Trump's tariffs cannot be dismissed. The day after the

Fed cut its benchmark rate by 0.25 percentage points, all three major New York stock indices

closed at record highs.

U.S. retail sales rise for third consecutive month... Strong performance continues despite tariffs
The U.S. Commerce Department announced on the 16th that U.S. retail sales in August reached $732 billion, a 0.6% increase from the previous month. This figure exceeded the 0.3% forecast by experts. U.S. retail sales had declined month-on-month in April and May due to concerns over economic impacts from the Trump administration's tariff policies, but have shown an upward trend since June. The monthly retail sales indicator is a flash estimate primarily tracking goods sales performance within total consumption, serving as a gauge for changes in consumption, the backbone of the U.S. economy.

President Trump signed an executive order raising the H-1B visa application fee to $100,000—100 times the current $1,000—prompting many U.S. companies to enter emergency mode. The H-1B visa is a nonimmigrant work visa (typically 3+3 years, annual quota of 85,000, lottery system, eligible for green card application) that allows U.S. employers to temporarily hire foreign nationals for ‘specialty occupations’ requiring bachelor's degree-level expertise. Many companies utilize it as a hiring tool, with the IT sector accounting for 65% of its usage. Meanwhile, the MAGA camp, President Trump's staunch supporters, has long argued that U.S. companies use H-1B visas to bring in cheaper foreign labor, taking jobs away from Americans. The new fee regulation is scheduled to take effect at 12:01 AM on September 21 and applies only to new applicants.

Service Fees Imposed on Chinese Vessels…Effective October 14 (No Pass-Through to Customers Expected)
Pursuant to the policy announced this year by the U.S. Trade Representative (USTR), service fees will be imposed on maritime transportation services and carriers utilizing vessels built in China starting October 14. However, shipping lines are expected to implement measures to avoid the fees, such as adjusting routes and redeploying vessels, so the fees are not expected to be immediately passed on to shippers at this time. China's largest shipping line, COSCO, announced that this measure will not impact its U.S. market services and that it will not impose surcharges to cover the fees. MSC, CMA CGM, and others have also announced positions similar to COSCO regarding the fees.

Insufficient Recovery of Asia-Origin Demand Despite Apple NPI (WorldAcd)
Although a sharp increase in demand was anticipated due to pre-holiday rushes for China's National Day and Korea's Chuseok holidays, coupled with Apple's New Product Introduction (NPI), the actual demand has fallen short of expectations. Apple charter supply is also partially underutilized. Cargo volume from China and Hong Kong to the US decreased by 8% year-on-year, with freight rates averaging $4.58/kg, a 14% decline compared to last year. Conversely, cargo volumes from China and Hong Kong to Europe increased by 8%. Cargo volumes from India to the US, which had emerged as an alternative to China, had been steadily increasing year-on-year over recent months. However, following the tariff bomb on India, volumes in September decreased by over 10% compared to the same period last year.