US Logistics Update [Oct 31, 2026]-English
The Federal Reserve (Fed) announced that it decided to keep the benchmark interest rate at the current range of 3.75% to 4.00% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on the 27th and 28th. At this FOMC meeting—held one month after the unanimous decision last month to raise the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points—the Fed maintained the current interest rate level without an additional increase. However, unlike the previous unanimous decision, the vote was 10 to 2, indicating a divergence of opinion among Fed board members. In its statement, the Fed assessed that “economic activity is expanding at a strong pace,” upgrading its economic assessment from “solid” in September to “strong.” This decision to hold rates steady ahead of the midterm elections was in line with market expectations; however, regarding inflation, the Fed noted that “inflation remains elevated,” suggesting that monetary tightening will resume in December following the midterm elections. The September Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, released the day after the FOMC meeting, rose 3.6% year-over-year, supporting the Fed’s concerns. The core PCE price index rose 3.1% year-over-year. Interestingly, Chairman Kevin Warsh noted that AI investments are also beginning to feel the impact of high interest rates; if even the AI sector—which had been able to avoid rate hikes thanks to massive cash reserves—begins to react to high rates, the Fed could cool the economy without having to raise rates significantly. On the other hand, if growth spreads across the broader economy, pressure for additional rate hikes will increase; the market is currently anticipating a rate hike this coming December.
The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 29th that third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth was 3.4 percent on an annualized basis compared to the previous quarter. This figure significantly exceeded market expectations of 3.1%; it was 1.2 percentage points higher than the second-quarter growth rate (2.2%) and marked the highest growth rate in a year, since the third quarter of last year (3.9%). Experts attribute this growth to increased investment by AI-related companies and robust consumer spending, which supported economic growth despite the shock of high oil prices caused by the war in the Middle East.
As of September 30 of this year, the U.S. national debt for fiscal year 2026 totaled $32.2 trillion, reaching 100.03% of GDP and surpassing the 100% mark. This is the highest level since 1946, immediately following World War II, and experts describe it as an unusual situation in which massive deficits continue despite the absence of an economic crisis. The annual budget deficit—one of the United States’ two major problems—also approached $2 trillion, accounting for 6.2% of GDP.
North American Vessel Dwell Times
Waiting times for rail transport at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—the largest import gateways in the U.S.—show no signs of decreasing. As shown in the table above, the average rail dwell time exceeds 10 days. The volume of import containers arriving at the LA/LB ports that are awaiting rail transport (intermodal rail) has increased significantly, and as port dwell times lengthen, freight shipments bound for inland re
gions (such as Chicago, Dallas, and Memphis) are being delayed. Consequently, retailers are concerned that their product delivery schedules may be disrupted ahead of the year-end sales season. Amid this situation, CSX, a major U.S. railroad company, has suspended freight interchange operations with other major railroads due to an IT outage, further exacerbating disruptions in intermodal (rail-truck) transportation. The company stated that some systems are being restored sequentially, but operational restrictions remain in place. The outage occurred on October 27; while the company confirmed it was not caused by a cyberattack or data breach, it is currently unable to estimate when operations will return to normal.
Calls to Strengthen Shipping Lines’ Responsibility for Empty Container Returns at NY/NJ Ports
The trucking industry in the New York and New Jersey ports has requested that the U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) enact new regulations to address unreasonable costs and operational issues arising from the return of empty containers. Trucking companies point out that there are repeated instances where, even when attempting to return empty containers to terminals or depots designated by shipping lines, they are refused due to a lack of reservations, sudden changes in return locations, or designated locations already being full. They highlight that this process results in additional trips, driver wait times, fuel costs, tolls, chassis and storage costs; they also raised concerns that late fees are being imposed even in situations where a normal return was not possible. The key improvements requested by the trucking industry are as follows:
Shipping lines must designate an empty container return location at least two days before the start of the free time period
Shipping lines must verify that the designated terminal or depot is actually capable of receiving empty containers
If additional costs are incurred due to an inability to return the container, compensation must be provided for driver time, mileage, storage, and chassis costs
When late fees are imposed, the burden of proof should be shifted from the trucking company—which must prove return was impossible—to the carrier, which must demonstrate that return was actually possible
If these demands lead to the enactment of actual FMC regulations, importers are expected to see a reduction in disputes related to the burden of unnecessary empty return trips, waiting times, and chassis and storage costs arising from circumstances attributable to carriers or terminals. However, this is currently at the stage of a Rulemaking Petition submitted by the trucking industry to the FMC and is not yet a finalized regulation.
AI Equipment Theft Surges; 92% Involve “Fraud”
According to supply chain security firm Overhaul, thefts of AI-related cargo—such as data center equipment and semiconductors—have increased by 34% since 2024, while the value of stolen cargo has surged by more than 110%. Confirmed losses related to AI equipment have exceeded $150 million to date. Notably, 92% of thefts involving high-value technology cargo are carried out through fraud rather than physical theft. Criminal organizations use tactics such as fake carrier identities, double brokering, forged emails and communications, and false shipping documents to pose as legitimate carriers before taking possession of the cargo. It is estimated that 60–70% of cargo stolen in the U.S. is smuggled overseas, underscoring the growing importance of verifying carrier identities and conducting thorough pre-shipment checks when transporting high-value cargo.
LA and Long Beach Port Security Union Warns of Sunday Strike
ILWU Local 26, which represents approximately 250 port security guards (watchmen) working at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach—the largest container gateways in the U.S.—has warned that it may go on strike starting Sunday (November 1) if labor-management negotiations break down. This dispute relates to separate collective bargaining negotiations for ILWU Local 26 (port watchmen and security personnel), rather than the overall ILWU contract. The union has been negotiating with the Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), the employer, since 2025 but has not reached an agreement; negotiations are currently continuing under the mediation of a federal conciliation agency. Although security personnel account for only about 2% of the total ILWU workforce, the terminals where they work handle approximately 85% of Long Beach’s cargo volume and about 33% of Los Angeles’s cargo volume, so their impact is considered significant. Employers are concerned that operations—including ships, yards, and gates—could come to a halt. In particular, the LA/LB ports are currently experiencing high cargo volumes and rail congestion; if a strike were to occur, it could have ripple effects across the entire North American import supply chain. However, according to news reports last Friday, the strike notice has been postponed to November 4.
Air Freight Market Trends (WorldAcd)
As the year-end peak season begins, global air freight rates continue their upward trend. (October 19–25) The weekly global average spot rate rose 5% from the previous week and was 38% higher than the same period last year. In particular, spot rates from the Asia-Pacific region to the U.S. rose 7% week-over-week to an average of $7.43/kg, marking a 41% increase year-over-year. Among these, rate increases were particularly pronounced in South Korea (+55%), Japan (+59%), Thailand (+47%), and Singapore (+46%). Air cargo volume from the Asia-Pacific region to the U.S. increased by 9% year-over-year. Amid ongoing flight disruptions in the Middle East and high fuel costs, the air cargo market is entering its peak season ahead of Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Christmas, and freight rates are expected to continue rising.