US Logistics Update [Oct 25, 2025]-English

Due to the U.S. federal government shutdown, the release of the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate, originally scheduled for October 15, was delayed until October 24. (originally scheduled for release on October 15th) showed the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rebounded to 3% in September. However, the core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, also rose 3%, slightly down from the previous month's 3.2%. Furthermore, all indicators released that day fell short of expert forecasts, leading to a sense of relief in the market. The release of the CPI data provides the Federal Reserve (Fed) with key inflation statistics ahead of the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on the 28th and 29th. However, the nonfarm payrolls report, one of the key statistics calculated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics alongside the CPI, is currently delayed. According to the CME Group's FedWatch tool, the interest rate futures market is pricing in a 98.9% probability that the Fed will cut the benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points at the October FOMC meeting. Experts note that while U.S. inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target due to factors like the Trump administration's tariff policies, the Fed is likely to prioritize the weakening labor market for the time being.

According to data released by the U.S. Treasury Department on the 22nd, the national debt surged by $1 trillion in just two months, surpassing $38 trillion to reach a record high. The U.S. national debt stood at $34 trillion in January 2024, surpassed $35 trillion six months later in July of the same year, and then rose to $36 trillion four months after that in November. According to analysis by the Senate Joint Economic Committee (JEC), the debt has been increasing at a rate of $71,253.9 per second over the past year. The U.S. has recorded a fiscal deficit every year since 2001. This rapid debt growth poses a significant risk of harming the U.S. economy. Kent Smetters, a professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton School, warned, “If debt continues to rise, it will ultimately exacerbate inflation and reduce the nation's purchasing power.”

The global economy is showing robust growth despite trade wars and fears over AI, reports The Economist. Concerns about a recession arose after President Trump's declaration of a trade war, but the world economy is recovering quickly. Lower tariffs than previously anticipated and expansionary fiscal policies are contributing to this recovery. For example, in the US, companies across both industrial goods and consumer goods sectors—including GE, GM, 3M, Philip Morris, and Coca-Cola—are now projecting higher earnings than initially forecast. Financial markets are also performing at record highs. Analysts suggest that if 1) instability in private lending markets like mortgages eases, 2) tariffs do not cause an economic downturn, and 3) the artificial intelligence boom continues, the economy will avoid a recession and enter a sustained boom.

U.S.-China Tariff War Update
President Trump confirmed at a press conference on October 21 that if the U.S. and China fail to reach a trade agreement by November 1, tariffs on Chinese goods could increase to 155% on November 1. President Trump initially declared a 100% tariff increase in a Truth Social post on October 10. Currently, under the tariff truce, the total tariff rate on China stands at 55%. This consists of a 10% IEEPA reciprocal tariff, a 20% IEEPA “fentanyl” tariff, and the 25% Section 301 tariff implemented during President Trump's first term and still in effect. The world is watching to see if a US-China tariff agreement will be reached during the APEC summit in South Korea.

Green Shipping Plan (imposing carbon taxes on ships) delayed by the United States
Efforts to impose carbon emission fees on ships have been delayed by one year due to U.S. opposition. The U.S. succeeded in delaying the plan by threatening retaliatory measures, including sanctions and port fees, against nations supporting the International Maritime Organization's (IMO) so-called Net Zero Plan. The industry anticipates the U.S. will use this one-year delay to ultimately neutralize climate change measures and IMO actions, while some view it as a victory for the LNG-using faction.

TPEB Market Update: November Outlook & Rate Trends
TPEB (Trans Pacific East Bound) market capacity supply rebounded to 84-86% in November, showing a clear recovery compared to October when it fell to 60-70% due to supply reductions during China's National Day holiday period. Rates saw a successful implementation of the GRI on October 15th. The Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) rose 31.9% for US West Coast (USWC) and 16.4% for US East Coast (USEC) routes, aligning with the GRI effect. Carriers have already announced plans for an additional GRI effective November 1. However, the Peak Season Surcharge (PSS), typically imposed in October, has been postponed to November. The industry remains skeptical about whether freight rates will continue to rise, given the significant imbalance between supply and demand.

Air Cargo Market Trends from Asia
Amid robust demand centered on e-commerce and IT cargo, air cargo supply from Asia is tightening further, driving sustained freight rate increases. North and South China maintain momentum for both North America and Europe routes, with rates remaining firm. Vietnam sees increasing volumes toward month-end, particularly facing severe supply shortages for West Coast US routes. South Korea remains generally stable. Malaysia and Thailand face supply shortages. India anticipates a short-term volume dip due to the Diwali holiday. Bangladesh has largely normalized operations following the terminal fire. The industry recommends early booking as supply remains generally tight.