U.S. Economy
Global sales of electric vehicles rose about 30 percent in September, despite some concerns of a “chasm” (stagnant demand), Reuters reported. This was driven by Chinese electric vehicles, but the U.S., the world's largest auto market, also saw an increase in sales. According to automotive research firm Kelley Blue Book (KBB), U.S. sales of automotive EVs in the third quarter rose 11% year-over-year to a record high of more than 346,000 units, up 5% from the same period a year earlier. In addition, the share of EVs in total EVs accounted for 8.9 percent of all vehicle sales in the third quarter, up from 7.8 percent a year earlier, also a record high.
The Federal Department of Commerce reported that retail sales rose 0.4% month-over-month and 1.7% year-over-year in September. The monthly retail sales indicator is a preliminary statistic that primarily captures the performance of goods sales as a share of total consumption. As a gauge of changes in consumption, the backbone of the U.S. economy, September's retail sales figures suggest that despite fears of a slowdown, U.S. spending is not slowing as much as experts feared.
The U.S. election is heating up as early voting begins for the Nov. 5 presidential election. While national polls still show Harris with a lead, seven battleground states are either ahead of Trump or in a dead heat, making it unclear who will become president. The current system, in which the president is determined by the votes of the seven battleground states, is being questioned, but most are skeptical that it will lead to an actual constitutional amendment to change the system.
Maritime Cargo Market Trends
ㅇ North America Vessel, Rail Dwell time (Week 42 / Flexport)
Market trend
[FEWB – Far East West Bound]
Demand is slow to recover after the end of the Chinese National Day holiday. However, carriers are preparing for the November GRI by utilizing the reduced supply situation such as blank sailing. Supply is tight as some shippers have increased bookings for weeks 43 and 44 in anticipation of price increases. (3 alliances announced blank sailing in November to maintain adequate supply through supply and demand control)
Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) fell by $210/TEU after the Chinese National Day holiday, but many experts expect the November carriers' GRI to be successfully established.
Containers, chassis, etc. are in good supply and demand.
[TPEB – Trans Pacific East Bound]
Demand returns to normal levels after the Chinese National Day holiday. However, carriers' GRI has been canceled and current rates will continue to apply until the end of October. Supply and demand is strong on both the West Coast and East Coast and all surcharges due to the ILA strike have been waived. However, the Peak Season Surcharge is still in effect.
Port of Montreal, Canada
Following a three-day strike in late September/early October, the overtime strike is ongoing. The Canadian government is intervening to resolve the situation by appointing a mediator. Meanwhile, the port of Montreal handles mainly cargo originating in Europe, and cargo originating in Asia mainly uses the port of Halifax, so there is no significant impact on cargo originating in Asia.
Air Cargo Market Trends
Airfreight Price Trends (From US)
Resumption of charter cargo flights from Asia following the end of the Chinese National Day holiday significantly increased supply, returning to oversupply conditions and causing spot prices to plummet. However, Regular consolidated cargo prices, which are important to maintain service quality such as on-time performance and stable supply, remain unchanged.