US Logistics Update [Oct 18, 2025]-English

Fed Chair Powell suggested the possibility of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting starting October 28, noting the current slow pace of job growth and the potential for this trend to lead to higher unemployment. Board Member Christopher Waller and Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson also emphasized the need for a cautious approach to avoid mistakes, suggesting a 0.25% cut followed by monitoring the situation. However, Board Member Stephen Miran, a Trump administration appointee who recently joined the Fed, argued for a larger cut, stating that heightened US-China tensions are increasing downside risks to the US economy and necessitate swift implementation of accommodative monetary policy. With a rate cut now widely expected, the New York stock market rallied. Meanwhile, the Federal government shutdown, which has halted the release of key economic indicators, is expected to make the Fed's decision even more challenging.

The Wall Street Journal reports that food prices continue to rise despite the federal government shutdown preventing the release of the Labor Department's September inflation data. Over the past 12 months through August this year, coffee prices rose over 40%, beef 12.6%, and bananas 6.6%, with milk, fruits, vegetables, and cereal also increasing. As a result, consumers are actively responding by cutting back on grocery purchases, seeking out discount stores, and stockpiling certain items. The problem is that prices are continuing to rise further on top of the significant increases already seen since the pandemic.

GM (General Motors) announced a $1.6 billion loss due to restructuring its electric vehicle investments, anticipating sluggish EV sales following President Trump's termination of the electric vehicle tax credit. GM stated that $1.2 billion of the loss stems from realigning EV production capacity with consumer demand, while the remaining $400 million relates to contract terminations with various vendor companies involved in EV investments. GM stated, “We anticipate the pace of electric vehicle adoption will slow as incentives for purchasing electric vehicles end and emissions regulations are relaxed following recent U.S. government policy changes.” Accordingly, it plans to suspend operations at its Tennessee plant and reduce shifts from two to one from January to May next year.

LA Port Sees Import Volume Decline for Second Consecutive Month in Sept... Yet Third-Quarter Total Cargo Volume Hits Record High
Despite being peak season, the Port of Los Angeles saw its import cargo volume decline for the second consecutive month in September, following August. However, the total cargo volume handled in the third quarter reached 2.9 million TEUs, surpassing the previous record for the same period last year. September's total throughput at the Port of LA was 883,000 TEUs. Within this, imports were 460,000 TEUs, an 8% decrease compared to the same month last year. Exports remained relatively stable at 114,700 TEUs. However, empty containers decreased by approximately 10% to about 308,000 TEUs, supporting the outlook for weaker future import volumes. The National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates forecast further declines in U.S.-bound container imports through December, with January 2026 volumes expected to drop 16% year-over-year. (See graph below)

Global Port Tracker projects imports for October–December to decline by –12.3%/–19.2%/ and –

19.4% respectively, and are projected to remain below 2025 levels until at least February. However,

some shipping lines and industry experts anticipate a rebound in Q1 next year, citing robust U.S.

consumption, inventory/sales ratios of 1.28–1.32 indicating no excess inventory relative to demand,

and signs of a rebound in warehouse demand. (PIERS, Journal of Commerce)

Strong IT and e-commerce demand, coupled with tariff variables, leads to Asian supply shortages and rising freight rates
The Asian air cargo market is expected to maintain robust demand and supply shortages through late October, driven by surging IT/e-commerce demand and overlapping US-China tariff uncertainties. Supply normalized after China's National Day and Korea's Chuseok holidays, but IT demand (e.g., Apple new products) and e-commerce shipments increased, causing supply shortages and rising freight rates. Particularly, the possibility of additional U.S. tariffs on China (expected implementation date: November 1) is stimulating preemptive shipments, further boosting short-term demand. Contrary to expectations of a temporary slowdown after the holidays, the market is projected to see robust demand growth throughout October, keeping both supply and freight rates tight.