US Logistics Update [Nov 8, 2025]-English

The U.S. Supreme Court held its first oral arguments on November 5 regarding the legality of various tariffs imposed by President Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). While Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expressed optimism about the outcome, major media outlets generally assessed that the Court appeared skeptical of the tariffs. Justices focused their questioning on whether tariffs fall under the authority to “regulate” imports granted to the President under IEEPA, and whether the President can unilaterally make decisions with significant economic impact when Congress has not explicitly delegated tariff authority. While many experts initially anticipated the tariff war would continue due to the Court's pro-Trump leanings and efforts to circumvent IEEPA, the case has now highlighted issues that could shake the foundations of the U.S. Constitution, such as the executive's taxation authority and the principle of separation of powers. This has significantly increased the likelihood of President Trump losing. Consequently, the industry is pinning high hopes on the possibility of tariff refunds (the graph below shows tariff revenue by country through September).

Meanwhile, this lawsuit concerns the legality of the Trump administration's IEEPA-based ‘fentanyl

tariffs’ and ‘reciprocal tariffs,’ and does not cover Section 232 and 301 measures, the 40% tariff

imposed on Brazil, or the 25% crude oil tariff on India. A ruling is expected to take several months. If

the tariffs are found unlawful, CBP is expected to immediately halt collection and initiate refund

procedures (though the scope and discretion regarding refund eligibility and methods remain

uncertain). The administration could attempt to reintroduce tariffs under other statutes like

301/232/122, but the scope for imposing tariffs would be limited.

The U.S. government shutdown, caused by the failure to pass a temporary budget due to Republican and Democratic disagreements over extending Obamacare subsidies, reached a record 36 days on November 5, the longest in history, causing various adverse effects on the U.S. economy. Hundreds of thousands of federal employees have been working without pay or forced to take unpaid leave for an extended period, leading to extreme dissatisfaction among them. Disruptions in air transportation are also occurring, posing a high risk of major flight chaos ahead of Thanksgiving and the year-end holiday season. Particularly concerning is the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP, commonly known as food stamps), which provides food assistance to 42 million vulnerable individuals. While a court order has mandated its continuation using federal emergency funds, these funds amount to only half of the program's $9 billion annual operating costs, raising significant alarm. In other words, halting SNAP is not merely a welfare cutback but directly threatens the ‘right to survival’ of the poor, potentially becoming a key factor in drastically escalating social discontent and anger (riots, unrest, etc.).

Maersk Achieves 90% On-Time Performance with ‘Gemini’... Premium Rate Review Begins in Earnest
Maersk CEO Vincent Clerc stated that the Gemini network with Hapag-Lloyd has fully stabilized on the East-West routes, significantly reducing unit costs and achieving approximately 90% on-time performance in Q3. He mentioned that discussions on introducing premium rates have begun, based on this high on-time rate. He stated that while it is necessary to maintain the unit cost advantage over competitors for another one to two quarters, he is confident that the Gemini network effect will widen the gap. However, he elaborated that the implementation of premium charges will only occur after observing several quarters to verify reliability in punctuality and confirming actual cost savings, such as shippers reducing safety stock. Clerc stated that if buffer stock held to prepare for delays is reduced due to Gemini's on-time performance, leading to cost savings, a portion of those savings could be recovered through premium rates.

U.S. Retail Sector Reduces Inventory Restocking... Monthly Imports Expected Below 2 Million TEUs Through March Next Year
According to the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates' ‘Global Port Tracker,’ U.S. container imports are projected to continue double-digit declines through year-end as companies scale back inventory replenishment, with growth stagnating into early 2026. U.S. container imports this year increased +3.7% year-over-year in the first half due to frontloading effects, but are projected to close the year at -2.3% compared to 2024 due to declines in the second half. NRF forecasts that imports in November and December this year will sharply decline by –14.4% and –19.9% respectively, with the retail inventory-to-sales ratio remaining at 1.28–1.32, maintaining a ‘Slim inventory’ trend. This strategy is expected to continue through 2026, with GPT forecasting imports to decrease to 1.98 million TEU in January and 1.85 million TEU in February next year.

FAA to Reduce Air Traffic by 10% at 40 Major Airports During Shutdown... Starting Friday Indefinitely
Due to the prolonged federal government shutdown, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) announced it will reduce air traffic by 10% in 40 ‘high-density’ areas nationwide starting Friday morning, November 7. FAA Administrator Bryan Bedford stated this was an “unprecedented measure in my 35-year career,” calling it an unavoidable step to ensure the safety of approximately 44,000 daily passenger, cargo, and private aircraft operations. He noted the measure could continue indefinitely if necessary. Currently, air traffic controllers and Transportation Security Administration (TSA) employees have worked for weeks without pay due to the shutdown and are either absent or performing other duties. Remaining employees are working six days a week with mandatory overtime, leading to accumulated fatigue and delays already occurring at some airports. Airlines began adjusting their own routes starting Friday, stating international flights would not be affected. However, industry insiders anticipate inevitable disruptions, such as delays lasting several hours in some areas, due to the nature of the U.S. hub network system. The cargo sector also faces unavoidable schedule disruptions, given its structure heavily reliant on nighttime operations and connecting transshipments.

Air cargo from Asia to the U.S. faces “traditional peak season conditions”... expected to persist until at least mid-November
Combined indicators from various Asian regions indicate the U.S.-bound air cargo market has entered its traditional peak season. Peak season effects are sustaining strong demand, supply shortages, and rising freight rates. Particularly challenging is securing supply due to Black Friday demand centered on shipments from South China, Southeast Asia, India, and Korea, coupled with IT product shipments. This necessitates routing flexibility, such as booking 1-2 weeks in advance and utilizing transit routes. This peak season trend is expected to persist at least until mid-November.