US Logistics Update [Nov 7, 2026]-English

With the Democratic Party securing an unexpected landslide victory in the U.S. midterm elections, market attention is focused on the possibility of future changes in economic policy. However, economic experts analyze that, since the Trump administration’s major policies are being driven primarily by the executive branch, the election results are unlikely to bring about changes significant enough to alter the overall direction of the U.S. economy. This is because key policies that drive inflation—such as tariff hikes, the sharp rise in energy prices caused by the war with Iran, and the distribution of various subsidies—are being implemented through the president’s executive authority without going through Congress. Currently, the U.S. economy is maintaining strong growth, with a third-quarter GDP growth rate of 3.4%, an unemployment rate of 4.1%, and a 3.8% increase in personal consumption; however, despite these positive macroeconomic indicators, the economic situation as experienced by the public remains challenging. Amid persistent inflationary pressures, real wages—adjusted for inflation—are on a downward trend, and with the U.S. national debt reaching $40.5 trillion, concerns about fiscal soundness continue to mount. Compounded by high government deficits and geopolitical uncertainty stemming from the war in Iran, these factors are being identified as potential risks to the U.S. economy. Consequently, experts anticipate some policy shifts in the areas of tariffs and welfare. Specifically, while the Democratic Party is expected to maintain its strategic stance of containing China, it is likely to call for a relaxation or adjustment of the broad tariff policies pursued by the Trump administration. The market views upcoming debt ceiling negotiations as another key variable; Goldman Sachs analyzes that the Democrats may leverage their influence in Congress to use tariff policy adjustments and expanded welfare budgets as bargaining chips. Consequently, the market appears to be focusing more on the upcoming fiscal negotiation process and the extent of policy changes than on the election results themselves. Ultimately, while this election has increased the likelihood of some adjustments to U.S. economic policy, key variables in the U.S. economy—such as the AI-investment-driven growth trend, inflation, and the national debt burden—are expected to persist for the time being. This suggests that economic fundamentals and policy implementation will have a greater impact on the market than short-term political changes. (Below are the results of the elections for both chambers of Congress.)

According to a report released yesterday, Friday the 6th, by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. nonfarm payrolls increased by 165,000 in October, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.1%. This employment growth was widespread across various industries, including professional and business services, healthcare, and manufacturing; in particular, the pace of private-sector job growth was the strongest since last March. The labor force participation rate also rose to 61.9%, its highest level since March. The fact that job growth exceeded market expectations and the unemployment rate fell demonstrates the strength of the labor market. Following this announcement, the probability of an interest rate hike in December rose to 78%. Meanwhile, the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) announced that the U.S. Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for October stood at 55.5, marking the 10th consecutive month of expansion (see graph on the below). The production index also reached its highest level since November 2021, with the machinery, computer and electronics, transportation equipment, and chemical sectors leading the growth. However, business sentiment deteriorated for the third consecutive month due to concerns over price volatility.

North American Vessel Dwell Times  

[U.S. West Coast Port Labor Negotiations] LA & Long Beach Port Security Contract Extended... Strike Temporarily Paused

The Pacific Maritime Association (PMA), a shipping industry group, announced today, Saturday, that it has agreed with the union, ILWU Local 26, to extend the negotiation deadline until November 20, thereby postponing—for now—a strike by security officers at the Ports of Los Angeles (LA) and Long Beach, the largest ports on the U.S. West Coast. This extension comes as both sides continue negotiations to reach a new collective bargaining agreement; it marks the third extension of the deadline. The union had initially hinted at the possibility of going on strike on November 1, but postponed it to November 4, then to November 7, and has now extended the negotiation deadline once again to November 20.

Vincent Thomas Bridge Near the Port of Los Angeles to Close for 16 Months Starting November 7… Concerns Over Port Transportation Disruptions

The Vincent Thomas Bridge, which connects the Port of Los Angeles to Terminal Island, will be completely closed for approximately 16 months starting November 7 for major repairs. This bridge is a key logistics artery used by approximately 8% of the truck traffic at the Ports of Los Angeles and Long Beach. During the closure, increased transit times and higher logistics costs are expected due to severe traffic congestion caused by detours. Shippers and carriers need to manage terminal bookings and container pickup schedules with greater flexibility. (Photo courtesy of Getty Images below)

 Shipping Lines Expand Service Cuts Amid Slowing Demand on U.S. Routes... Downward Pressure on Freight Rates

With demand for maritime imports from Asia to the U.S. expected to decline by about 11% in November—indicating a clear slowdown—shipping lines are expanding blank sailings to respond to the drop in demand; the number of blank sailings is projected to rise to 8% as of the week of November 30. Meanwhile, according to Xeneta, one of the major spot freight rate indices, rates to the U.S. West Coast fell 6% and rates to the East Coast dropped 5% last week, indicating growing downward pressure on freight rates.

U.S. CBP Significantly Tightens Regulations for Foreign Importers of Record (IOR)… CTPAT Validation Mandatory Starting in 2027

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) plans to significantly tighten customs clearance requirements for Foreign Importers of Record (IOR). Specifically, starting January 5, 2027, foreign companies must complete CTPAT (Customs-Trade Partnership Against Terrorism) validation in order to clear customs directly as the Importer of Record in the United States. Under the new regulations, foreign importers who have not undergone CTPAT validation will not be able to file import declarations in their own name and must instead complete customs clearance through a U.S. customs broker who has completed CTPAT validation. In particular, CBP has clearly distinguished between simple enrollment or certification and actual validation. Validation is a process in which a CBP examiner visits the business premises in person to verify submitted documents and operational status. Since it is highly unlikely that a CBP examiner would travel overseas for validation purposes, the use of a customs broker who has completed CTPAT validation is mandatory. Consequently, it appears that a high level of security and regulatory compliance requirements will need to be met. This regulation also newly codifies the definition of a U.S. importer of record (IOR), recognizing as such only companies that are effectively controlled by U.S. citizens or permanent residents holding at least 51 percent of the ownership, or that hold a certain threshold of unsecured real property within the United States. Furthermore, the regulation defines any person holding at least a 25% equity stake or exercising actual management control as a “Beneficial Owner,” with the aim of preventing imports conducted through nominee or shell companies. The responsibilities of customs brokers have also been significantly expanded; brokers must review relevant documents, such as articles of incorporation and financial statements, to verify a client’s eligibility as a U.S. importer and must retain these records for at least five years. In principle, brokers will no longer be permitted to handle customs clearance for clients who do not meet the eligibility requirements. Penalties for violations will also be strengthened; in addition to existing penalties related to customs broker licenses, CBP plans to expand penalty provisions to allow for direct sanctions against brokers under 19 U.S.C. §1592 of the Tariff Act. The industry anticipates that these measures will have a significant impact on overseas e-commerce sellers, DDP exporters, and companies whose overseas headquarters directly import products into the United States. CBP plans to fully implement the regulations on May 6 of next year, following a grace period of approximately six months.

U.S. Launches Full-Scale National Security Investigation into Imports of Robots and Industrial Machinery

The U.S. government has begun follow-up measures to review its reliance on foreign sources for robots, industrial machinery, and related parts from a national security perspective. Recently, the Trump administration ordered negotiations with major trading partners under Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act and is currently conducting a review to determine whether to impose import restrictions in the future. While this measure does not include the immediate imposition of tariffs, the administration announced that after receiving a report on the progress of negotiations within 180 days, it may consider additional measures—such as tariffs, quotas (import volume limits), and fees—if necessary. The U.S. government pointed out that the country currently relies on foreign imports for most of its robots, industrial machinery, and key components, and noted that the volume of such imports has steadily increased over the past decade, citing the difficulty of fully meeting demand with domestic production capacity alone as a problem. In particular, this review covers not only industrial robots but also manufacturing equipment in general, classifying advanced robotics technologies—such as autonomous mobile robots (AMRs), humanoids, quadrupedal robots, and autonomous ground vehicles—as strategic technologies that can be linked to defense, surveillance, reconnaissance, and hazardous material handling. While the industry expects the short-term impact to be limited, concerns have been raised about the potential for supply chain restructuring should the U.S. classify robotics and automation equipment as strategic industries similar to semiconductors in the future; follow-up measures are highly likely to be announced within the next 180 days.  

North American Robot Orders Rise 24.8%… Automation Investment Expands, Led by Semiconductor and Electronics Sectors (See graph above)

According to data released by the Automation 3 Association (A3), robot orders in North America for the third quarter of 2026 totaled 10,989 units ($723.5 million), marking a 24.8% increase in volume and a 26.1% increase in value compared to the same period last year—the strongest quarterly performance so far this year. Cumulative robot orders from January through September 2026 totaled 28,984 units (approximately $1.89 billion), representing a year-over-year increase of 9.6% in volume and 13.3% in value. Of particular note is the expansion of automation investment beyond the automotive industry into various sectors such as semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and biotechnology. Looking at the growth rates by major industry: Semiconductors, Electronics, and Photonics: +97.6%; automotive parts: +90.4%; plastics and rubber: +67.7%; pharmaceuticals, biotechnology, and life sciences: +38.7%; and metal processing: +37.0%. Demand for collaborative robots (cobots) also rose significantly; third-quarter cobot orders totaled 1,831 units ($63.8 million), a 56% increase year-over-year, accounting for 16.7% of total robot orders.

Strong Demand for Air Freight to the U.S.; Freight Rates Rise Further Ahead of the Year-End Peak Season (WorldAcd)

While the global air freight market grew by 6% year-over-year in October, demand for air freight from Asia to the U.S. continues to show a steady upward trend. Freight volume from China and Hong Kong to the U.S. increased by 8% compared to the same month last year, while volume from mainland China rose by 9%. In particular, cargo volume from Asia to the U.S. in the last week of October increased by approximately 10% year-over-year. By major country, Taiwan recorded a 26% increase, Thailand 20%, South Korea 18%, and Japan 15%, showing balanced growth across key markets in Northeast and Southeast Asia. Along with rising demand, freight rates are also increasing; the average freight rate from China to the U.S. was $6.47/kg in October, up 7% from the previous month and 30% year-over-year. Spot rates from the Asia-Pacific region to the U.S. have also risen by more than 15% over the past three weeks, averaging $7.67/kg, with rates from South Korea reaching $8.55/kg and from Japan reaching $8.23/kg. Coinciding with airlines’ transition to their winter schedules, global passenger aircraft belly capacity has decreased by 3% since November. Meanwhile, peak-season demand ahead of Black Friday and Thanksgiving, coupled with high fuel surcharges, is impacting freight rates, and high freight rates are expected to persist for the time being.