US Logistics Update [Nov 29, 2025]-English

On November 28, as Black Friday sales—accounting for half of U.S. retail sales—kicked off simultaneously, experts analyzed that overall Black Friday sales could decline by up to 2.5% due to various economic uncertainties, including a sluggish job market and persistent inflation. This reflects expectations that consumers will reduce purchases of major items heavily impacted by tariffs—such as automobiles, electronics, and clothing—and instead spend more on cheaper goods. Mirroring this trend, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for November recorded 88.7, marking its sharpest decline in seven months. Notably, the Consumer Expectations Index, which indicates consumers' outlook for the near future, plunged 8.6 points month-over-month to 63.2 in November. An Expectations Index below 80 is generally seen as signaling an impending recession. The index has now remained below 80 for ten consecutive months through November (see graph below).

The Federal Reserve (Fed) stated in its November Economic Conditions Report (Beige Book) released on the 26th that “employment declined slightly, and about half of the districts mentioned a weakening in labor demand.” The Fed made this assessment of the labor market situation in this report, released two weeks ahead of its December 9-10 Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting where it will decide on the benchmark interest rate. The report explained, “Despite an increase in announced layoffs, more regions reported that businesses and other respondents were limiting staffing levels by filling vacancies only or through attrition, rather than through layoffs.” It highlighted that some firms reported AI replacing entry-level positions or boosting existing employees' productivity to the point where new hires were unnecessary. Regarding broader economic trends, it assessed that overall conditions had changed little since the previous October report. Meanwhile, the CME FedWatch tool, known for its Fed rate forecasts, indicates an 86.4% probability of a 0.25 percentage point rate cut in December.

Major Wall Street investment banks have released their forecasts for the stock market in 2026, drawing attention with their highly positive outlook for next year's market. JP Morgan, a leading Wall Street investment bank, projects the S&P 500 index will rise to 7,500 next year (currently around 6,800) and predicts it could climb to 8,000 if the Federal Reserve cuts interest rates. HSBC also forecasts the S&P 500 at 7,500 for 2026. Deutsche Bank predicts “robust earnings growth and high equity valuations will persist in 2026,” analyzing that the sustained strong performance and robust capital inflows will be key drivers of returns.

Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) Trends
Carrier supply for December is expected to increase to 80-90% of normal levels. However, demand shows no signs of a sharp surge or peak season activity, as shippers maintain a wait-and-see stance due to tariff uncertainties. November ocean freight rates remained weak as the effect of the previous GRI (General Rate Increase) faded, but carriers have announced a GRI effective December 1st. The actual implementation of the GRI will likely be determined by future demand trends, but the outlook is currently very negative. PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) has also been deferred until December 15th.

FMC Imposes Fines on Violating Carriers and NVOCCs... A Wake-up Call for Regulatory Violations
The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) recently imposed fines of $1.35 million and $50,000 on South Korea's Hyundai Glovis (VOCC) and U.S.-based Olympiad Line, respectively, for regulatory violations, prompting industry caution. The fines were imposed for violating FMC Tariff filing regulations and failing to comply with the companies' own established tariffs. The FMC mandates that all rates, fees, and regulations for shipments to the U.S. via ocean and intermodal transport must be pre-published in a publicly accessible Tariff system. VOCCs (Vessel Operating Common Carriers) and NVOCCs (Non-Vessel Operating Common Carriers) must ensure that the actual rates presented to customers match the Tariff/ NRA/NSA filed with the FMC. When rates change, they must be updated before cargo is transported. The FMC regularly monitors and audits rate databases and documentation, imposing substantial fines for violations. Undocumented deals, such as verbal discounts or unofficial “special rates,” are considered highly risky practices under the FMC system. Ultimately, all shippers, forwarders, and NVOCCs handling cargo destined for the U.S. must operate under the fundamental premise that “the freight rate must be documented in official records” as per FMC regulations.

LA Port Container Ship Fire: Terminal Operations Resume
Four terminals at the Port of Los Angeles, which had suspended operations due to a large container ship fire on November 21, resumed operations on the 22nd after the fire was extinguished. While this fire caused a temporary halt in terminal operations, it did not lead to major logistics disruptions. Since early this year, there have been various terminal issues, including sudden surges in cargo volume, but none have caused major logistics disruptions. It is believed U.S. ports are identifying and implementing solutions to address port bottlenecks.

Year-end shopping season shows signs of overheating in air cargo market
Ahead of Black Friday, surging online shopping demand in the U.S. has significantly driven up air freight rates for shipments originating from Asia. JOC reports that the trend of supply chain diversification is becoming increasingly evident, particularly with a sharp increase in electronics and semiconductor shipments departing from Vietnam and Thailand. Air freight rates are currently reaching up to $7.50/kg from Southeast Asia to the U.S. West Coast and $8.50/kg to the East Coast. Freight from China also remains strong, with rates to New York JFK at $7.00–$7.20/kg and to Los Angeles LAX at around $6.20/kg. According to the Freightos Air Index, the average China-US freight rate hit a record high this year at $6.60/kg. An industry insider stated, “E-commerce demand remains robust, driving fierce competition among airlines, including securing charter flights,” “However, the current situation is difficult to view as a ‘super peak’.” Nevertheless, many experts analyze that this phenomenon reflects structural changes beyond simple seasonal factors, such as reducing dependence on China and diversifying supply chains to Vietnam and Thailand. They forecast that demand pressure, expected to continue through the year-end Christmas season, will further heat up the air cargo market.