US Logistics Update [May 23, 2026]-English

Amid rising inflation driven by high oil prices resulting from the war in Iran, concerns over fiscal deterioration in major developed nations, including the United States, have pushed the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasuries above the psychological threshold of 5% and the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries above the critical level of 4.5%, heightening anxiety about the global economy. While U.S. financial markets are not currently experiencing a major shock due to the growing possibility of an end to the Iran conflict, underlying sources of anxiety remain. Goldman Sachs points out that the war in Iran is not yet completely over, oil prices remain high, and risks persist, yet the market is becoming complacent too quickly. The firm warns that if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, it could lead to soaring oil prices → rising interest rates → an economic slowdown, but the market is taking this risk too lightly (Click Shortages Global Market Review). Furthermore, the key terms driving the market right now are “shortages”—specifically, memory shortages, power shortages, and energy shortages. These three factors are the core drivers of global capital flows, and analysts predict that AI, semiconductor, and energy-related assets are likely to remain strong until these supply issues are resolved.

Meanwhile, the minutes of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) released on the 20th noted that the Fed “emphasized that a significant number of participants believed that a certain degree of monetary policy tightening would likely become appropriate if inflation continued to run persistently above the 2% target.” With Kevin Warsh, who is facing pressure from President Trump to cut interest rates, taking office as Fed chairman on the 22nd, U.S. economic experts are increasingly expecting that the Fed will not proceed with further rate cuts and will instead begin raising rates as early as this year to combat inflation. In fact, Morgan Stanley expects rate cuts to resume in January of next year, while Barclays and Bank of America anticipate them in March and July, respectively. Conversely, JPMorgan forecasts that the Fed will raise rates once this year or next, bringing the terminal rate to 4.00%.

President Trump Takes Harshest Measures Yet on Immigration Enforcement… Green Card Process Returns to 1940s Model

The Trump administration has announced new guidelines shifting green card applications from adjustment of status within the U.S. to applications filed in the applicant’s home country. This move is expected to have significant repercussions, as it will largely block the practice of individuals who, after staying on short-term visas such as student or tourist visas, adjust their status through marriage or employment to apply for permanent residency. U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) reaffirmed that “non-immigrant visas are intended for short-term visits” and that applications within the U.S. are not permitted except in exceptional circumstances. As a result, more than half of the 1.4 million annual green card applicants—approximately 820,000 people—are now subject to adjustment of status within the U.S., meaning they must all return to their home countries to apply for permanent residency. This is expected to cause massive chaos, including consular backlogs, family separations, and the risk of being unable to re-enter the U.S. after returning home. Experts have described this measure as a “return to the 1940s” and predict it will bring significant changes to the process of obtaining U.S. permanent residency.

North American Vessel Dwell Times   

Rising diesel prices accelerate shift to rail… Double-digit growth in cargo volume on the East Coast route… but frequent service disruptions

The U.S. rail-based domestic intermodal market is showing a clear rebound, driven by a combination of recent sharp increases in diesel prices, a shortage of trucks, and expectations of stabilized rail service, with cargo east of the Mississippi River experiencing unexpectedly strong growth. According to data from the International Association of North American Railways (IANA), U.S. container freight volume increased by 9% year-over-year in March and April, with major eastern routes—particularly Northeast to Southeast (17.7%) and Midwest to Northeast (17.6%)—posting notable growth. The industry is paying close attention to the possibility that this trend is not merely a short-term rebound but an early sign of structural change. Railroad companies are also responding to these changes. CSX stated that the expansion of the Howard Street Tunnel in Baltimore has allowed for increased double-stack transport, giving it a competitive edge over Norfolk Southern (NS). J.B. Hunt also assessed that the cost savings of trucking compared to rail in the Eastern region have increased from 15% to 20%. However, NS warned that this rebound could be a temporary phenomenon driven by rising diesel prices, cautioning that cargo may shift back to trucking once oil prices stabilize. While analysts suggest that future growth in rail market share depends on maintaining service quality, service disruptions are occurring frequently on the ground as service capacity struggles to keep pace with the rapid increase in cargo volume.

Asia–U.S. Spot Rates Soar…Signs of an ‘Early Peak Season’ on the Trans-Pacific Route

The JOC reports that spot rates for shipments from Asia to the U.S. have surged to their highest levels this year since mid-May, suggesting that the peak season on the Trans-Pacific route may begin earlier than expected. According to industry sources, rates for 40-foot containers (FEU) from North Asia to the U.S. West Coast have surpassed $3,000, strongly reflecting the General Rate Increase (GRI) that took effect on May 15. The rate hike is attributed to a combination of factors, including increased fuel surcharges, supply adjustments by carriers during the process of signing new annual contracts that took effect on May 1, and shippers rushing to ship cargo before contract price increases. In fact, as cost pressures mount due to poor first-quarter earnings and a sharp rise in bunker fuel prices caused by geopolitical risks, carriers are reacting more sensitively to reducing supply and withdrawing capacity to prevent losses. According to the Global Port Tracker forecast released last week, U.S. imports in July and August are expected to decline by 8% and 5% year-over-year, respectively, leading to assessments that demand itself has not surged dramatically. However, the industry forecasts that as carriers maintain these supply strategies for the time being, high booking pressure and strong freight rates are likely to persist through early summer.

U.S. Trucking Industry Faces Double Pressure from Strengthened Identity Verification and Declining Supply Capacity

With cargo theft and identity fraud surging across the United States, strengthening identity verification for drivers and trucking companies has emerged as a key challenge for the logistics industry. The U.S. Congress and Supreme Court have recently tightened relevant regulations, requiring truck brokers and shippers to assume a higher level of verification responsibility. The CORCA bill, recently passed by the U.S. House of Representatives, has made it easier to prosecute cargo crimes, and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is pushing to establish a “Supply Chain Crime Response Center.” Furthermore, the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned its previous stance by ruling that truck brokers are liable if they hire dangerous carriers, significantly expanding the legal liability of truck brokers and freight forwarders. Consequently, major carriers such as Knight-Swift are excluding a large number of companies with safety concerns, thereby reducing their pool of truckers. This, combined with the trend toward stricter background checks, is resulting in a decrease in available capacity within the market. The industry is concerned that the combination of stricter background checks and reduced capacity will lead to rising freight rates and service disruptions.

U.S. Heavy-Lift Industry Officially Requests USTR to “Exempt Cranes and Trailers from Tariffs”

The Specialized Carriers & Equipment Association (SC&RA), which represents the U.S. heavy-lift transportation industry, has officially requested the federal government to exclude cranes and trailers manufactured in the EU, Canada, and Japan from Section 301 tariffs. While acknowledging China’s overproduction issues, the SC&RA argues that the EU, Canada, and Japan are “reliable allies” unconnected to dumping, forced labor, or industrial overproduction, and thus there is no basis for imposing retaliatory tariffs on equipment from these countries. SC&RA emphasized that approximately 80% of the cranes used on U.S. construction sites are imported, that U.S.-made all-terrain cranes account for less than 3% of the global market, and that there is no domestic production of tower cranes. Furthermore, it points out that establishing a new domestic manufacturing base would take 5 to 7 years, making a short-term replacement impossible, and that there is a shortage of ultra-high-strength steel—essential for manufacturing cranes and trailers—within the U.S., necessitating an exemption from tariffs on the steel itself. SC&RA requested the USTR to: ▲Exempt equipment from the EU, Canada, and Japan from Section 301 tariffs ▲A 24-month grace period if new tariffs are imposed ▲Imposition of “proportionate and reasonable” tariffs on Chinese equipment ▲Prohibition of the double imposition of Section 301 and existing Section 232 steel tariffs. The industry is appealing that the current overlap between Section 232 steel tariffs (25%) and equipment tariffs is causing crane prices to rise by hundreds of thousands of dollars, leading to a series of project delays and suspended equipment purchases. The logistics industry is also facing pressure from rising equipment rental costs and service disruptions.

U.S. Air Freight Volume Declines…Rates Rise

According to WorldACD’s weekly data compiled from May 11 to 17, 2026, air freight volume originating from North America decreased by 5% week-over-week (-5% WoW), but rates actually rose. Specifically, freight rates in North America rose by 3% week-over-week (+3% WoW), causing the global average air freight rate to increase by 1% to $3.23 per kg compared to the previous week. The global average spot rate for the week was $3.67 per kg, showing little change from the previous week but remaining 48% higher than the same period last year. In terms of supply, while there were no major fluctuations in most regions, supply in the Middle East and South Asia (MESA) region remains approximately 32% lower than pre-war levels, with the Gulf region in particular recording a 49% decrease. On the cost side, jet fuel prices are trending downward, currently standing at approximately $162 per barrel—more than 20% lower than the level of about $209 recorded in early April. However, this is still about 80% higher than the level from the same period last year.