US Logistics Update [May 2, 2026]-English

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 30th that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for March rose 3.5% year-over-year. This marks the largest increase in 2 years and 10 months, since May 2023. It also rose 0.7% month-over-month, recording the largest monthly increase since June 2022. Energy prices, including gasoline, surged 20.9% month-over-month, driving the overall price increase. The core PCE price index, excluding energy and food, rose 3.2% year-over-year, reaching its highest level since November 2023. It increased 0.3% month-over-month. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on the 29th. This marks the third consecutive rate freeze this year, a move seen as a response to growing inflation concerns stemming from the surge in international oil prices due to the war in Iran, and it aligns exactly with market expectations. Meanwhile, Kevin Warsh, the nominee for the Federal Reserve, passed the Senate Banking Committee on the 29th and is expected to be sworn in on the 15th. Regarding the much-discussed question of whether current Chair Powell would remain as a Federal Reserve Board member, it was decided that he would stay on. Powell’s term as a Board member, which is separate from his term as Chair, runs until January 2028.

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 30th that U.S. national debt has surpassed a threshold once unimaginable, exceeding 100% of GDP. According to the report, as of March 31, the U.S. public debt stood at $31.265 trillion, while GDP for the past year was $31.216 trillion. Consequently, the debt-to-GDP ratio rose from 99.5% at the end of the previous fiscal year (September 30) to 100.2%, exceeding 100%. Excluding a temporary spike during the pandemic in the second quarter of 2020, this is the first time the ratio has surpassed 100% since immediately after World War II (see graph below). With the federal government running an annual deficit of nearly 6% of GDP, government debt is expected to increase further in the future.

The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 30th that the U.S. GDP growth rate (flash estimate) for the first quarter of this year was 2.0% (annualized, quarter-over-quarter), indicating that the U.S. economy has regained a steady growth trajectory. A surge in large-scale investments, particularly in the artificial intelligence (AI) sector, offset the slowdown in consumer spending, with the private investment sector contributing 1.48 percentage points to overall growth. Previously, in the fourth quarter of last year, the U.S. economy saw its growth rate slow to 0.5% due to the impact of the federal government shutdown, amid a slowdown in consumer spending, which is the backbone of the U.S. economy.

According to a poll released on the 28th by Reuters, which surveyed 1,014 U.S. adults over four days from the 24th to the 27th (margin of error ±3 percentage points), only 34% of respondents said they approve of President Trump’s handling of the country’s affairs, a significant drop from the 47% recorded when he took office in January of last year. Reuters reported, “Americans are growing increasingly dissatisfied with President Trump’s handling of the cost of living and the ‘unpopular war’ with Iran.” Meanwhile, as the war between the U.S. and Iran marked two months on the 28th, experts have assessed that it was an unnecessary war from the outset. They cite reasons such as the shift in the war’s primary objective from regime change to “permanently depriving Iran of its nuclear weapons capability,” the emergence of an even more hardline Iranian regime than before the war, the catastrophic crisis caused by the war’s impact on the entire globe, and, in particular, the fact that the blockade of the Strait of Hormuz served as a powerful bargaining chip for Iran.

Top 30 US Ports by 2025 Import volume

    * Source :  Descartes Datamyne

CAPE Tariff Refund Trends

With CAPE Phase 1—introduced by U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) for IEEPA tariff refunds—officially taking effect on April 20, it has been reported that a significant number of filings were rejected during the verification process in the first week, so caution is advised. As of April 26, only 63% of CAPE filings passed the initial file validation. Of the 13.3 million entries included in the validated filings, approximately 2.1 million—or nearly 16%—were subsequently rejected during the entry-by-entry verification process. Consequently, importers must pre-check the eligibility of each entry, ACE data, clearance status, HTS codes, and applicability of IEEPA duties before requesting a refund through CAPE. In particular, since unprocessed entries rejected by CAPE can be included in a CAPE filing again after being corrected via Post Summary Correction (PSC), early review and correction are expected to be key procedures for reducing refund delays. Meanwhile, in an update submitted to the Court of International Trade (CIT) on April 28, CBP anticipates that the first CAPE refunds will be issued around May 11. Currently, approximately 21% of all entries have been approved for IEEPA duty removal through CAPE, and about 3% are understood to have cleared and entered the refund stage. Refunds are scheduled to be paid via ACH direct deposit to the Importer of Record (IOR) or designated payee. However, for entries that have not yet been cleared or were cleared within the last 80 days, it may take approximately 60 to 90 days from CAPE approval to receipt of the refund. For entries that are on hold, extended, under review, or in bonded warehouses, the refund process will proceed after the entry is finally cleared. Additionally, CBP has not yet issued specific guidelines for entries that have passed 80 days since final clearance but are still within the 180-day protest period; this is expected to be addressed in CAPE Phase 2. Importers should continue to monitor protest deadlines and the possibility of a PSC, as additional denials or error notifications may arise during the CBP review process even after CAPE filing.

ZIM Shareholders Overwhelmingly Approve Hapag-Lloyd Acquisition Proposal… Global Shipping Industry Restructuring

The JOC reported that shareholders of Israeli shipping company ZIM have overwhelmingly approved a takeover proposal from Germany’s Hapag-Lloyd. With the proposal passing smoothly at the shareholders’ meeting, ZIM is now highly likely to become a wholly owned subsidiary of Hapag-Lloyd. Industry observers expect that the integration of the two companies’ fleets, routes, and terminal networks will lead to the full-scale adjustment of overlapping routes, cost reductions, and capacity optimization. They also forecast that this acquisition will further solidify the “five-power system” comprising MSC, Maersk, CMA CGM, COSCO, and Hapag-Lloyd. On the other hand, concerns have been raised that freight rates may rise as the independent competitiveness of mid-sized carriers weakens, while economies of scale centered on major carriers strengthen.

U.S. Air Cargo Market: Freight Rates Continue to Soar Amid Strong Import Demand (by WorldACD)

Demand for cargo bound for the U.S. remained strong in the final week of April. In particular, air freight from China to the U.S. continues to face supply shortages as demand for AI servers, e-commerce shipments, ocean-to-air cargo (shipments shifting from sea to air), and general cargo all increased simultaneously. Consequently, air freight rates from China to the U.S. remain high at $7–8 per kg. Freight rates from the Middle East and South Asia also rose by approximately 64% year-over-year as of April 20–26. In particular, freight rates from India to the U.S. averaged $7.15 per kg, a 60% increase year-over-year, while rates from Dubai to the U.S. exceeded $9 per kg, surging by more than 160% year-over-year. This is analyzed as a result of a combination of tensions in the Middle East, disruptions in air cargo supply, and rising jet fuel prices. Cargo volumes from Latin America to North America also increased significantly due to seasonal factors. Specifically, as flower exports from major producing regions such as Colombia and Ecuador were concentrated to the U.S. and Canada ahead of Mother’s Day in May, cargo volumes from Latin America increased by 19% compared to the previous week. In contrast, air cargo volumes originating from the U.S. (i.e., North America) showed a slight decline, with North American outbound volumes decreasing by 2% compared to the previous week. However, in terms of freight rates, the North American market is also maintaining high levels due to the impact of fuel surcharges, currently recording $2.65 per kg—a 60% increase compared to the same period last year.