US Logistics Update [Mar 7, 2026]-English

As the U.S.-Iran standoff enters its ninth day, the Middle East crisis centered on the Strait of Hormuz is unfolding thousands of miles away, yet American consumers are also feeling the financial strain. Market volatility has increased since the Middle East tensions began, and rising mortgage rates and gasoline prices are heightening the risk of deteriorating consumer sentiment. War benefits defense contractors but imposes heavy burdens on ordinary consumers. The average U.S. gasoline price rose 27 cents per gallon over the past week to $3.25, a surge comparable to the early days of Russia's 2022 invasion of Ukraine. The 30-year fixed mortgage rate also climbed above 6.1% from below 6%. On the 6th Eastern Time, April delivery West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $90.90, surging 12.21% from the previous session. This marks a 52-week high and the highest level since September 2023. On a weekly basis, WTI's 35.63% gain this week is the largest since records began in 1983. Bloomberg and Goldman Sachs warned that international oil prices could exceed $100 per barrel if the destruction of Middle Eastern energy facilities and the strait blockade persist long-term.

The U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) ordered the Trump administration on the 4th to begin the process of refunding tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA). It also ordered that IEEPA tariffs not be collected on goods currently undergoing the duty liquidation process. If the final duty amount has been determined, refund applications can be filed within 180 days from the date the duty amount was finalized. According to the Wall Street Journal (WSJ), at least 1,800 companies have filed lawsuits to date seeking refunds of IEEPA-based duties. An analysis by University of Pennsylvania economists estimates the total duty refund claims could reach $175 billion. In court filings, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) stated that at least 301,000 importers had been subject to the now-invalid tariffs as of December 10 last year. However, actual refunds are not straightforward. The Trump administration is highly resistant to tariff refunds, and even if legal proceedings move quickly, the process is expected to take several months. It is also uncertain whether all companies will be eligible for refunds. There is particular controversy over whether companies that passed the tariffs on to consumers can receive refunds. Furthermore, some argue that consumers, who actually bore a significant portion of the tariffs, should also be reimbursed.

North American Vessel Dwell Times  

North America–Asia Two-Way BAF Increase & GRI Announcement

Effective April 1st, carriers have fully adjusted the USA→Asia BAF. Increases range from approximately $30 to $378 for dry containers and $80 to $2,078 for reefer containers, varying by carrier and route. Simultaneously, Asia→USA BAFs have also increased significantly, rising to approximately $218 to $1,046 for Dry and $286 to $1,574 for Reefer containers. Furthermore, GRI increases will be applied consecutively on routes from Asia to the US on March 15 and April 1. Most carriers have announced increases of USD 2,000 to 3,000 per 40ft container (see table below). The industry attributes this to the impact of Middle East instability stemming from the US-Iran conflict and the expansion of maritime supply chain risks.

 LA & LGB Ports See January Cargo Volume Decline

The ports of Los Angeles (POLA) and Long Beach (POLB), major ports on the U.S. West Coast, recorded a year-over-year decline in cargo volume for January 2026. The Port of LA's total January cargo volume was approximately 812,000 TEU, a 12% decrease compared to the previous year. Imports fell 13% to 421,594 TEU, while exports decreased 8% to 104,297 TEU. Empty container throughput also declined 12% to 286,110 TEU. The Port of Long Beach also handled a total of 847,765 TEU, down approximately 11% year-over-year. However, it maintained the highest cargo volume among U.S. ports for January. Import cargo volume decreased by 13.1% to 409,418 TEU, while exports increased by 0.8% to 99,478 TEU. Empty container throughput decreased by 11.5% to 338,470 TEU. Port officials explained that last year's abnormal increase in 2025 cargo volumes, driven by companies rushing shipments ahead of tariff concerns, impacted this year's statistics. They analyzed that the aftermath of this has left inventory levels within the U.S. still elevated. However, the outlook for this year's cargo volume is positive. For the Port of Long Beach, annual throughput in 2026 is projected to reach approximately 9.5 million TEUs, marking a strong performance ranking among the top five in its history.

Middle East Conflict Widens Uncertainty in Global Air Cargo Market

According to WorldAcd, the global air cargo market in February showed relatively stable growth, increasing by approximately 7% year-on-year. Notably, significant volume increases in the Asia-Pacific (+14%) and MESA (Middle East and South Asia, +12%) regions drove the recovery in air cargo demand. However, following the U.S. and Israeli attacks on Iran, multiple countries including Iran, Iraq, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Israel have closed their airspace or restricted flights. This has caused a sharp decline in MESA region cargo volumes and significant disruptions to international air transport. As a key aviation hub connecting Europe, Asia, and Africa, the Middle East is estimated to account for approximately 15-18% of global air cargo supply, which is now impacted by this situation. WorldAcd announced that export cargo volumes in the MESA region decreased by -27% on the first day after the war began and by -56% the following day. Airlines are using long-distance detour routes to avoid Middle Eastern airspace, leading to increased flight times, higher fuel costs, and reduced cargo capacity. In some markets, this has not only raised air freight rates but also raised the possibility of cargo backlogs. Freight rates from Asia to the Americas are also rising due to the Middle East war, and fuel surcharge increases are expected to follow soon.

USPS Warns of Financial Crisis – Funds Could Deplete Before 2027

The USPS has warned that its funds could deplete before 2027, drawing attention by hiring an external restructuring advisor. The USPS stated that declining mail volumes and rising costs to maintain its nationwide mandatory delivery network are the core causes of its financial deterioration, declaring, “If no action is taken within 12 months, cash will run out.” While mail volume has declined by billions over the past 15 years due to the rise of email and other alternatives, the USPS still has a legal obligation to deliver to over 170 million addresses. Although package volume has increased due to e-commerce growth, it is insufficient to offset the structural deficit. The USPS is a critical infrastructure for last-mile delivery across the United States, particularly in rural areas. Its financial instability is a serious matter that could impact the entire logistics industry.