US Logistics Update [Mar 21, 2026]-English

Global markets are in turmoil as international energy prices surge in retaliation against attacks on energy facilities following the outbreak of the Iran war. With international crude oil prices having risen 40% since the war began, U.S. gasoline prices have also climbed to $3.91 per gallon [as of March 20, according to the American Automobile Association (AAA)] due to the rise in crude oil prices, marking an increase of $0.98 per gallon compared to pre-war levels. AAA forecasts that prices will exceed $4 per gallon within days. In the U.S., $3.50 per gallon is generally considered a threshold price, and experts analyze that this could solidify the perception among voters—who have been struggling with the cost of living since the Trump administration took office—that inflation has worsened. In the U.S., where the former Biden administration’s election defeat is attributed to high post-pandemic inflation, soaring oil prices are placing significant pressure on the Trump administration ahead of the November midterm elections. Experts expect the Trump administration, which is well aware of this situation, to do whatever it can to minimize the fallout from the war in Iran, but the reality is far from straightforward. Fatih Birol, head of the International Energy Agency (IEA), warned that the war in Iran has caused the most severe energy shock in history and that “it could take at least six months for oil and gas supplies in the Gulf region to fully recover,” describing the conflict as “the greatest global energy security threat in history.”

The Wall Street Journal reported on the 19th that while international oil prices have risen sharply due to the war in the Middle East, economists still believe the likelihood of the U.S. falling into a recession is low. The report noted that economists have raised the probability of a recession within the next 12 months to 32%, and estimate that oil prices would need to reach an average of $138 per barrel for that probability to exceed 50%. Meanwhile, the Federal Reserve (Fed) kept the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 3.50–3.75% at the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting held on the 18th. The Fed projects one rate cut in 2026, consistent with its forecast from last December. Experts interpret this as the Fed assessing that inflationary pressures are mounting due to surging oil prices, as the war in Iran enters its third week and shows signs of prolonging. 

USTR Adds 60 Countries to Section 301 Investigation… Tariff Risks Expand Across the Board

The USTR has included an additional 60 countries in its Section 301 investigation, in addition to the existing 16, bringing the total number of countries under investigation to over 70 and once again exposing the entire world to tariff risks.(see map below) This investigation focuses primarily on whether countries are complying with prohibitions related to overproduction and forced labor. Experts predict that the burden of risk management for companies will increase, as the structure of Section 301 tariffs makes legal challenges particularly difficult.

Progress on the IEEPA Duty Refund System (CBP)

Pursuant to an order from the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), CBP’s development of the IEEPA Automated Duty Refund System (CAPE) is proceeding at a “satisfactory pace.” CBP has announced that the Claim Portal module is 70% complete, the Duty Recalculation module is 40% complete, the Review and Re-clearance Processing module is 80% complete, and the Refund Processing module is 60% complete, and that claims will be accepted within approximately 45 days. Please note the following to ensure early refunds:

•    Open an ACE account and register an ACH refund account

•    Pre-calculate the estimated refund amount and audit entries

•    Submit protests early to mitigate risks associated with system delays or policy changes

U.S. February Imports Down 5.3%, but Signs of ‘Front-loading’ Amid Tariff Uncertainty

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that container imports to the U.S. in February totaled 2.19 million TEUs, a 5.3% year-over-year decline, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline. By product category, industrial imports—primarily industrial and capital goods—plummeted (–28.6%, –16.9%), driving the overall decline in volume. In contrast, seasonal consumer goods such as electronics and leisure products showed signs of recovery with a +5.4% increase, while automobiles and parts maintained strength with a +6.6% rise. By country, imports from China fell by –12.4%, while imports from ASEAN rose by +21.8%, reflecting a clear trend toward supply chain diversification. The industry assessed the figures as better than expected, despite factors such as the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday in February (which fell in January in 2025). Meanwhile, the industry is closely monitoring ongoing tariff uncertainties—such as the IEEPA tariff invalidation ruling and the 10% Section 122 tariff applied for 150 days—as well as signs of front-loading by some importers due to dwindling inventory.

U.S. Diesel Prices Surpass $5, Highest Since 2023

The national average price of diesel in the U.S. has risen to $5.071 per gallon, surpassing the $5 mark for the first time since 2023. This marks the 11th consecutive week of increases, representing a rise of $1.522 compared to the previous year. The surge in diesel prices, driven by instability in the crude oil and refined product markets due to escalating tensions in the Middle East, is placing significant cost pressure on the U.S. trucking industry.

Middle East Crisis Update

o   Countries with closed airspace: Iran, Israel, Iraq, Kuwait, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia (Dammam region). The UAE and Qatar have partially reopened their airspace.

o   Airport and airline operations status: DXB, AUH, and DOH airports are open with restrictions (Emirates at 60% capacity, Etihad at 15%, Qatar Airways at 10%). However, most EU and US airlines (Lufthansa, Cargolux, United, AFKLM, etc.) have suspended operations.

* The above information is as of March 11; there have been no updates since then, and the situation is subject to frequent changes.

The Hidden Costs of U.S. E-commerce Revealed by an $8 Item (by Logistics Management)

As the U.S. Postal Service (USPS) faces concerns over financial depletion (see U.S. Logistics News, March 7), the underlying vulnerabilities of the U.S. e-commerce delivery structure are once again drawing attention. The USPS delivers to more than 170 million addresses across the United States six days a week, handling approximately 7 billion packages annually. It is virtually the only organization with a “universal service obligation” to deliver at the same rate even to areas that private carriers like UPS and FedEx avoid, such as rural or low-density regions. As a result, a significant number of small and medium-sized brands and B2C sellers have relied on USPS as their de facto sole last-mile delivery option. The issue lies in the economic viability of this delivery network. According to industry analysis, the actual cost of delivering a single package ranges from approximately $4 to $12, depending on route density, distance, and weight. However, the selling price of small household goods or accessories—items consumers frequently purchase through e-commerce—is often only around $8. With free shipping or next-day delivery becoming the standard expectation, shipping costs have been absorbed and distributed across sellers, logistics companies, platforms, and the entire USPS structure. In the past, the financial issues of the USPS were not prominent because large volumes of letters and high-margin mail supported the national delivery network and subsidized the cost of package delivery. However, with the digital transition, the volume of First-Class Mail has plummeted, while the proportion of package delivery—which requires more labor and space—has rapidly increased. Although the cost burden has grown significantly, the USPS has been unable to pass these costs on. Furthermore, as UPS and FedEx gradually withdraw from low-profit, low-cost, and low-density delivery areas and restructure their businesses to focus on high-cost, high-margin freight, the burden of the most inefficient delivery segments is becoming increasingly concentrated on the USPS.

If the USPS were to reduce its delivery coverage or lower service levels, the impact is expected to extend far beyond mere inconvenience in mail delivery. It is highly likely that delivery fee increases, reductions in free shipping, and the scaling back of next-day delivery services will become a reality, particularly in rural and suburban areas. This will inevitably lead to increased costs for e-commerce companies and ultimately affect consumer prices and demand. Experts view the USPS’s financial problems not as “the failure of a poorly managed agency” but rather as “the limitations of a universal delivery model that the market itself struggles to sustain.” Ultimately, the future of the USPS is emerging as a key variable in assessing the sustainability of the entire U.S. e-commerce and supply chain ecosystem, transcending policy debates within the U.S. administration. In other words, the core issue boils down not to whether the USPS should survive, but to the question of who should bear the last-mile costs in U.S. e-commerce. It is a choice between whether this is social infrastructure that the government should subsidize, a cost that businesses should reflect in their prices, or a burden that consumers must bear through longer delivery times and higher prices.

* Parcel Market Share by Carrier (2025, by ShipMatrix)

Carrier	Volume (Billion)	Market Share (%)
USPS	6.7B	28.0%
Amazon Logistics	6.7B	28.0%
UPS	4.4B	18.4%
FedEx	3.6B	15.1%
Other carriers	2.5B	10.5%
Total	23.9B	100%