US Logistics Update [Mar 14, 2026]-English

• As market attention focuses on the potential scope and impact of a war between the U.S. and Iran, the March 2026 issue of “Washington Policy Perspectives,” a regular publication by J.P. Morgan Global Research, offers outlooks on the Middle East conflict, U.S. monetary policy, and the U.S. midterm elections.

• Geopolitical Risks: The report assesses that the Iran risk has emerged as a far greater short-term global market variable than tariffs. It analyzes that even if the Middle East conflict ends quickly, it could trigger high oil prices and rising interest rates, dealing a significant blow to the economy. Meanwhile, the Wall Street Journal reported that Israeli government officials do not expect the Iranian regime to collapse anytime soon. The analysis notes that Iranian leaders currently retain power, there are no signs of an impending uprising, the military and political leadership are maintaining their roles, and law enforcement, including the police, is functioning effectively.

• Presidential Trade Authority: Although the Supreme Court recently curbed the president’s unilateral authority to impose tariffs, the analysis suggests that the president’s influence over trade policy has actually grown as Congress fails to fulfill its role. Accordingly, tariff rates are expected to remain at around 9–10%.

• Interest Rates and Liquidity: While the Fed’s independence will be maintained, the large scale of liquidity is expected to make interest rate cuts difficult. In particular, the AI investment boom is expected to keep interest rates higher than anticipated.

• The AI Paradox: While AI will boost productivity in the long run, it is projected to contribute to inflationary pressures during the initial stages of infrastructure deployment and factory construction.

• Fiscal Risks: The U.S. debt problem poses a serious risk, but it is expected that policymakers will not propose clear solutions until the crisis of Social Security fund depletion looms in 2032.

• Political Outlook: The 2026 midterm elections will be held amid discontent over high inflation; the House of Representatives is expected to remain under Democratic control, while the Senate race is projected to be competitive. For the 2028 presidential election, with a crowded field of Democratic candidates, current Vice President Vance is expected to emerge as an early frontrunner for the Republican nomination.

• For details, see here: Washington Policy Perspectives - Research - J.P. Morgan Markets

• U.S. consumer prices in February rose 2.4% compared to the same month last year. The Core Consumer Price Index (CPI), which excludes volatile items such as food and energy, rose 2.5%, with both figures meeting experts’ expectations. Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 13th that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for January—a key indicator closely monitored by the Federal Reserve (Fed)—rose 2.8% year-over-year. This figure fell short of the 2.9% forecast by Dow Jones and represented a 0.3% increase from the previous month. The core PCE price index, excluding energy and food, rose 3.1% year-over-year and 0.4% month-over-month, meeting all expert forecasts (see graph above). Experts point out that while the core PCE inflation rate had dropped to 2.6% in April of last year, it has since shown a gradual rebound, suggesting that U.S. inflation was already under upward pressure even before the outbreak of the U.S.-Iran conflict (February 28). The PCE price index is a measure of the prices paid by U.S. residents for goods and services. When assessing whether it has achieved its monetary policy goal of a “2% inflation rate,” the Federal Reserve uses the PCE price index as a benchmark rather than the more widely known Consumer Price Index (CPI). The PCE price index released today covers January data and does not reflect the impact of the sharp rise in international oil prices following the U.S.-Israel airstrikes on Iran that began on February 28. Meanwhile, the January PCE index was originally scheduled for release on February 26, but its release was delayed due to the aftermath of last year’s U.S. federal government shutdown and was finally released on the 13th.

• North American Vessel Dwell Times         

• CBP Unveils IEEPA Tariff Refund Procedure… “Minimizing Burden on Importers”

  Following a ruling by the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT), U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is preparing a new refund method regarding IEEPA reciprocal tariff refunds. Specifically, CBP is developing a batch refund system called CAPE (Consolidated Administration and Processing of Entries) to replace the existing case-by-case PSC (Post Summary Correction) method. CBP explains that this is intended to minimize the burden on importers and reduce errors in refund calculations, as the existing administrative process requires manual review of 53 million entries—a task that would take over 4 million hours. Development is currently about 70% complete, and the exact go-live date for the CAPE portal is expected to be announced on March 19, CBP’s next official update date. Refunds are expected to be processed after CAPE launches by submitting a CAPE Declaration (consolidated claim). Approximately 330,000 companies are eligible, and the refunds will include interest. Importers of Record (IORs) must register an ACH refund account on the ACE portal, as CBP has discontinued paper check refunds, and must prepare a list of IEEPA duty payment records.

• Aftermath of the Middle East conflict… Middle Eastern and Indian ports ‘saturated’ by early unloading, 200,000 TEU stranded amid concerns over equipment shortages

  As major ports in the Persian Gulf have been closed due to the Middle East conflict, shipping companies have abandoned attempts to reach their original destinations and are proceeding with early unloading at nearby ports. As a result, congestion at Khor Fakkan, Sohar, Karachi, Nhava Sheva, and Mundra, with congestion levels soaring to 80–100%. JOC reports that a “second wave” of cargo—consisting of shipments already departed from Asia—is expected to arrive at these ports shortly. Furthermore, with over 200,000 TEU stranded within the Persian Gulf, the return of empty containers to Asian manufacturing hubs has been halted, and the risk of equipment shortages is rapidly escalating. European hub ports are also already at capacity due to delays caused by the Red Sea detour, creating a structural imbalance across the entire Asia–Middle East–Europe network. Experts are concerned that this situation will go beyond mere route disruptions, leading to a compound shock characterized by increased volatility in oil and LNG prices, which will in turn drive up global shipping costs.

• MSC Air Cargo Takes Delivery of Its 7th 777F

  With the delivery of its seventh Boeing 777-200F, MSC Air Cargo now operates a total of seven 777Fs, including three aircraft it operates directly and four operated by Atlas Air under an ACMI agreement. Along with the addition of this new aircraft, MSC announced plans to add Rome (FCO) Airport as a new gateway and expand connections to major Asian hubs such as Hong Kong, Shanghai, and Yizhou (EHU), in addition to its existing Milan (MXP) hub. With other carriers such as CMA CGM also pursuing the introduction of additional aircraft, the expansion of shipping lines into the air cargo business is accelerating.