US Logistics Update [Jun 28, 2025]-English
- chullee2
- Jun 29
- 4 min read
Amid growing pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed) from President Trump to cut interest rates amid low inflation and solid employment data, Fed Chairman Powell reaffirmed his wait-and-see stance, saying “we don't see a need to rush,” during his semi-annual monetary policy report hearing before the House Financial Services Committee on Thursday. Citing the same reasons as President Trump that the “labor market and economy remain strong,” Powell noted that the Fed is “well positioned” to wait for the impact of tariffs on the economy to become clearer. Meanwhile, the U.S. economy was finally confirmed to have contracted in the first quarter of the year, after a temporary surge in imports (graph below, left). The Commerce Department's final estimate of U.S. GDP growth for the first quarter came in at -0.5%, down -0.3 percentage points from last month's preliminary estimate of -0.2%. This is the first time in three years that the lone booming U.S. economy has contracted on a quarterly basis since the first quarter of 2022 (-1.0%). It appears that the U.S. economy was not as robust as first thought, as personal consumption expenditure growth, which accounts for 70% of GDP, was revised down to 0.5% from a preliminary 1.2%.
Meanwhile, the value of the U.S. dollar also hit its lowest level since 2023 last week (graph above,
right). As the dollar depreciates, the ability of the exchange rate to absorb upward pressure on
prices from tariffs is likely to weaken. In addition, as the July 9 expiration date of the tariff
moratorium approaches and anxiety among countries is growing, Treasury Secretary Scott
Bessent reaffirmed the possibility of extending the moratorium by stating on June 26 that the
conclusion of tariff negotiations with major countries will be delayed until around September 1.
U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is reportedly tightening up its review of Electronic System for Travel Authorization (ESTA) approvals for 90-day visa-free visits to the U.S. and has significantly increased inspections of cargo imported into the U.S., amid frustrating delays. According to industry sources, CBP has recently increased its electronic and on-site inspections, focusing on the potential for duty evasion through country of origin shifting and item alteration. As a result, delays and delays in customs clearance, tariff corrections, and penalties are occurring one after another.
Trans Pacific East Bound (TPEB) Trends
Demand: Demand continues to decline ahead of the expiration of the temporary tariff
moratorium(July 9).
Vessel supply: recovered to 96% of normal level. Demand decreased but not oversupplied.
(supply and demand stable)
Equipment : Containers and chassis are not in short supply.
Rates : Stabilizing trend after price decline.
North America Vessel Dwell Times
Import surge at U.S. West Coast ports in wake of tariffs
The JOC reports that US West Coast ports will see a significant increase in cargo volumes as importers frontload ahead of the expiration of the Trump administration's temporary tariff moratorium, but notes that the surge will be short-lived, starting this week and lasting through the end of July, and whether it will continue will not be known until after July 9 (90-day tariff moratorium on all countries) and August 14 (tariff moratorium on China). Western ports are considered to be import heavy when they reach 100,000 TEUs per week, and the Port of Los Angeles totaled 138,519 TEUs this week, with 124,713 TEUs expected next week and 101,003 TEUs for the week of July 6, according to the port's website. The Port of Long Beach expects imports to total 84,109 TEUs this week, before surging to 125,286 TEUs the following week and 116,947 TEUs the week of July 6th. After that, 93,797 TEUs are expected for the week of July 13, before rising again to 114,073 TEUs for the week of July 20. Many experts do not believe that this surge in container imports will cause significant congestion, but rather that the traditional peak shipping season of August through October has come a little early this year. For reference, the Port of Los Angeles totaled 320,878 TEUs in May, or about 71,000 TEUs per week, while the Port of Long Beach totaled 296,348 TEUs, or about 66,000 TEUs per week (by Piers)
Meanwhile, according to the Global Port Tracker recently released by the National Retail
Federation and Hackett Associates, U.S. imports are expected to decline by 8.1% in July, 14.7% in
August, 21.8% in September, and 19.8% in October compared to the same months in 2024.
DHL Canada to Resume Normal Operations on Monday, June 30, following Labor Agreement
DHL Express Canada announced today that it will resume normal operations on Monday, June 30, following a labor agreement with its union, Unifor. The agreement will resume parcel deliveries that were suspended on June 20th.
Delta Air Lines Launches Parcel Delivery Service in the U.S.
Delta Air Lines has launched a new parcel delivery service called Delta Cargo Deliver Direct, the WSJ reported today. Delta is working with its SmartKargo platform and trucking companies to provide door-to-door delivery services and aims to deliver hundreds of thousands of packages a day in the U.S., according to the company. According to GoBolt, Delta's shipping costs are 20 to 25 percent lower than FedEx and UPS, and its on-time performance is comparable to those companies, with tens of thousands of shipments a day of products like Arezzo shoes.
FedEx Founder Fred Smith Dies at 80
Fred Smith, the founder of FedEx who invented the "hub-and-spoke" system, a revolutionary model that changed the paradigm of package delivery, died on Saturday, June 21 at the age of 80. Fred Smith was born in Memphis, and after leaving the Marine Corps, he founded Federal Express in Little Rock, Arkansas in 1971, and two years later grew the company from less than 400 employees serving 25 cities in Memphis to a global behemoth with more than 500,000 employees and offices in more than 210 countries and territories. His hub-and-spoke model was famously dismissed by his college professors at the time. Recognizing the importance of documents and parcels and inventing the hub-and-spoke model, current FedEx CEO Raj Subramaniam calls him "more than just a pioneer and founder" and remembers him as "the heart and soul of FedEx."