US Logistics Update [Jun 20, 2026]-English

The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) is drawing attention with its analysis of five major changes at the Federal Reserve following the results of the first Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting since Kevin Warsh took office as the new Fed chair. First, the WSJ interprets the Fed’s signals regarding the possibility of an interest rate hike as stronger than expected. Wall Street experts had anticipated to some extent that the Fed would tighten its inflation-control policies at this meeting, but they assessed that the message emerging from the meeting was stronger than expected. Second, during his first press conference, Chairman Warsh gave no indication whatsoever of an intention to cut interest rates. Instead, he emphasized that “our primary objective is to achieve price stability, the mandate entrusted to us by Congress,” signaling that he intends to act independently of President Trump. Furthermore, by making no mention of the Fed’s other mandate—maximum employment—he highlighted that curbing inflation is the top priority. He also foreshadowed sweeping changes to the Fed system. Chairman Warsh announced that the Fed would form task forces (TFs) to examine various topics, including communication, the balance sheet, data sources, productivity and employment, and the inflation framework, suggesting that the Fed’s operating methods could change significantly by the end of this year. Finally, Chairman Warsh was assessed to have successfully secured consensus among the committee members. Ultimately, as it became clear that the Fed is focusing on curbing inflation, the likelihood of an interest rate hike within the year increased, causing the value of the dollar to rise sharply. Experts assessed that this announcement by the U.S. Federal Reserve was “a clear signal to anyone watching that interest rates would be raised, and a definite positive factor for the dollar’s value.”

North American Vessel Dwell Times

U.S. Container Imports in May Return to Growth for the First Time in 13 Months

According to an analysis by S&P Global Market Intelligence, U.S. container import volume in May reached 2.58 million TEU, up 13.5% year-over-year and 5.4% month-over-month. This growth significantly exceeded the five-year average growth rate (2.1%) and marked the first year-over-year increase in 13 months. The industry attributes this rebound to the earlier-than-usual start of the peak season and the advance of Amazon Prime Day, as well as a base effect resulting from a 6.3% year-over-year decline in imports in May of last year. However, despite the sharp increase in volume in May, cumulative imports from January through May totaled 12.02 million TEU, a 0.7% year-over-year decrease, remaining slightly in negative territory. By product category, imports of durable goods surged 44%, driving the overall growth, with furniture (65%), leisure goods (18%), and home appliances (13.7%) showing strong performance, while consumer electronics were the only category to decline. S&P Global attributes this to the fact that these items are exempt from tariff hikes, noting that “the possibility of tariff increases is bringing forward the timing of imports.” The firm raised the possibility that future import trends could be distorted, as companies are engaging in preemptive stockpiling (front-loading) ahead of the Section 301 tariff hikes that may take effect in late July.

U.S. Retailers Face Possibility of ‘Double’ Rate Hikes in Service Contracts

Reports indicate that large and mid-sized U.S. retailers are facing the possibility that rates under their 2026–27 service contracts could effectively double. Most retailers signed contracts effective May 1 at rates of $1,700–$1,900 per FEU for shipments to the U.S. West Coast, while rates for shipments to the East Coast were set at a level $1,000 higher. However, effective July 1, the BAF (Bunker Adjustment Factor) has increased by an additional $300–$400 per FEU, and carriers have begun imposing a PSS (Peak Season Surcharge) of $2,000 per FEU, creating a situation where contract rates could rise to around $4,000. Imports from Asia to the U.S. in May totaled 1.68 million TEU, up 13% from the previous month and approximately 20% year-over-year, reflecting very strong demand. As a result, spot rates surged to $5,500 per FEU for the West Coast and $6,500 per FEU for the East Coast. In addition, carriers implemented General Rate Increases (GRIs) twice a month from April through June, and another GRI is scheduled for July 1. Furthermore, retailers are front-loading shipments for the fall and year-end due to concerns over tariff hikes, rising oil prices, and geopolitical risks. The National Retail Federation (NRF) has revised its June import forecast upward, noting that the peak season has started earlier this year. Unlike last year, routes between Asia and Europe, the Mediterranean, and South America are all experiencing strong demand simultaneously this year, making it difficult for carriers to reallocate capacity to the Americas and increasing the likelihood that high freight rates will persist.

U.S. CPSC eFiling to Become Mandatory Starting July 8, 2026

The industry is on edge as the U.S. Consumer Product Safety Commission’s (CPSC) eFiling system—which requires the electronic submission of product certification information through the CBP system during customs clearance for consumer goods subject to CPSC regulations imported into the U.S.—is set to become mandatory on July 8, 2026. Covered items include consumer products subject to CPSC regulations, such as children’s products, toys, and certain electrical and household goods. Companies importing products that require a Children’s Product Certificate (CPC) or a General Certificate of Conformity (GCC) must prepare in advance. There are three main eFiling methods: the “Disclaim” method can be used for products not actually subject to CPSC regulations, and if product information has been registered in advance with the CPSC Product Registry, a simple declaration can be made via “Reference Set Filing.” If the product has not been pre-registered, the “Full PGA Message Set” method must be used to submit detailed information on 20 to 30 items; in this case, there is a higher risk of customs clearance delays, so caution is advised. It is crucial for companies importing products that may be subject to CPSC regulations to verify, prior to the effective date, whether each product is subject to regulation, whether they hold a CPC/GCC, and whether pre-registration in the Product Registry is possible. If preparations are insufficient, there is a risk of additional data requests, customs clearance delays, or increased costs during the U.S. import clearance process after July 8, 2026.

Amazon Opens LTL Freight Service to All U.S. Businesses… Directly Competes with Traditional Carriers

Amazon is making its LTL (less-than-truckload) shipping service available to all U.S. businesses, marking its full-scale entry into the freight market. This expansion extends a service that had previously focused on inbound shipments to Amazon facilities to now handle general freight from external companies. Businesses can now leverage Amazon’s LTL network to access a wider range of shipping options, including transport between their own facilities and deliveries to third-party logistics centers. The service will be provided through Amazon Supply Chain Services, Amazon’s integrated logistics platform. By opening its vast transportation and fulfillment network—built over the past 30 years—to external customers, Amazon has created a direct competitive landscape with traditional LTL carriers. Industry experts assess that Amazon’s technology-driven operational model could offer small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) an alternative for cost savings and improved delivery speeds. Experts believe this decision is highly likely to reshape the competitive landscape of the U.S. LTL market.

Freight Rates Have Peaked, but… High Costs and Supply Shortages Expected to Persist Through the Third Quarter

With the June 14 ceasefire agreement between the U.S. and Iran, the most significant rate inflection point for the 2026 air cargo market has arrived. In other words, while the resumption of operations by Gulf carriers is gaining momentum, paving the way for supply chain recovery, experts are warning that “rate declines will not be as rapid as the previous surge.” Xeneta’s Chief Air Cargo Officer stated, “Full normalization of operations will only be possible once mine clearance in the Strait of Hormuz and port restoration are complete,” and, anticipating a 4- to 8-week transitional adjustment period, expects high freight rates and limited capacity to persist through the third quarter. In other words, while the market has welcomed signs of structural recovery following the ceasefire, cost burdens and supply constraints remain unresolved, leading the industry to forecast that “the high-freight-rate environment is likely to persist until the second half of 2026.”