US Logistics Update [Jun 14, 2025]-English

Despite concerns from the Fed and many experts that the U.S. economy will slow down in the aftermath of the Trump administration's tariff policies, prices and employment in the U.S. have remained stable. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year in May, according to the U.S. Department of Labor. Excluding volatile food and energy, the underlying CPI rose 2.8% year-over-year, the same as the previous month's increase. Notably, apparel prices, which were expected to be directly affected by the tariffs, fell 0.4%, while used car prices fell 0.5% and new car prices fell 0.3%. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate remained stable at 4.2% in May, unchanged from the previous month.

Tariffs are absorbed by importers, exporters, consumers, and exchange rates, but Wall Street

analysts believe companies are self-absorbing, minimizing the need to sell inventory stockpiled

before the tariffs went into effect or pass on price increases to consumers. The strong dollar

appears to be playing a particularly large role. The wholesale price index (PPI), a leading indicator of

consumer prices, also showed very limited impact from the tariffs, rising just 2.6% year-over-year in

May (the underlying PPI rose 2.7%). President Trump immediately pressed the Fed again, saying

that “the Fed should cut (the benchmark interest rate) by one percentage point.”

The U.S. and China agreed on a framework to implement the contents of the two sides' agreements, including the Geneva trade talks, at the second round of trade negotiations held in London, U.K., expecting the ‘tariff war’ to end, but there was no disclosure of the details of the agreement, only the extent of easing China's rare earth export controls and U.S. export restrictions on China, and President Trump said on June 11 that the tariffs on China were agreed to be increased from the existing 30% to 55%, further amplifying anxiety and uncertainty.

Meanwhile, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), Trump's tariffs are expected to

reduce the deficit by $2.8 trillion over the next 10 years, bolstering his tariff policy drive. On the other

hand, the CBO estimates that the deficit will be reduced by 2.8 trillion thanks to the tariffs, but the

deficit will increase by 2.4 trillion due to the tax cut bill.

ㅇ Trans Pacific East Bound (TPEB) trends

Demand: Demand continues to be strong. However, the number of new bookings is declining somewhat. On the other hand, if tariffs on China are raised to 55% after the second round of US-China trade talks, demand is expected to increase significantly again if countries under the 90-day moratorium take advantage of this and try to frontload for fear of higher tariffs after the moratorium ends.
Vessel supply: back to 90% of peak levels. Blank sailing has also dropped significantly to around 9% (34% in early May)
Equipment : No major issues with container availability. Chassis supply is also not an issue.
Rates : Freight rates to Western ports decreased slightly. GRI to western ports was canceled on 6/15. East Coast maintains GRI due to slow supply recovery.

Recent reciprocal tariff developments
On June 11, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that it is very likely that the 90-day moratorium on reciprocal tariffs that ends on July 9 will be extended (even if no agreement is reached by then) for "major U.S. trading partners" that are engaged in "good faith" trade negotiations. Chinese goods are subject to reciprocal tariffs of 10% (+20% fentanyl tariff) until August 11, but under the trade agreement reached on June 11, the reciprocal tariff rate could increase to 55%. However, the exact date of implementation is unclear as it requires the approval of the two leaders. Reciprocal tariffs of 10% apply to goods from other countries until July 9th. If an agreement is not reached with the U.S. by July 9, the country-specific tariff rates announced in April will revert back to their original levels.

Meanwhile, on June 10, a federal appeals court issued a long-term stay that keeps President

Trump's IEEPA tariffs in place while the case is litigated. The next round of arguments are due on

July 31. (The trial court had ordered Trump's tariffs to be halted as a violation of the law.)

U.S. retailers significantly raise June-August import volumes
U.S. retailers have significantly raised their June-August import volume forecast due to the Trump administration's temporary tariff relief, JOC reported on June 10. According to the June Global Port Tracker (GPT) from the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, June imports are estimated at 2.1 million twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs), up 17.5% from the May forecast, while July imports are estimated at 2.13 million TEUs, lower than the 2.32 million TEUs in July 2024 but up 20.3% from the May forecast, and May results are also estimated at 1.91 million TEUs, 5.5% above the forecast. August imports are also forecast at 1.98 million TEUs, up 8.8% from the May forecast, but the September (1.78 million TEUs, -21.6% y/y) and October (1.8 million TEUs, -20% y/y) forecasts have been revised downward, suggesting lower volumes in the fourth quarter. With new bookings slowing down, the outlook for key importers, retailers, will be closely watched.