US Logistics Update [Jun 13, 2026]-English

As the Federal Reserve (Fed) grapples with growing concerns over interest rates, fears are mounting that the Fed may bring forward its rate hike schedule following sharp increases in both the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Producer Price Index (PPI). The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on the 11th that the Producer Price Index (PPI) for May rose 6.5% year-over-year and 1.1% month-over-month. The year-over-year increase marks the highest level since November 2022 (7.4%). The core PPI, excluding food and energy, also rose by 4.9% compared to the same month last year. The U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for May, released the previous day, also rose 4.2% year-over-year, recording the largest increase in over three years since April 2023. Fortunately, the core CPI rose by only 2.9% year-over-year, remaining within the 2% range. Although oil prices have been on a downward trend since June, lending credence to the theory that inflation has peaked, uncertainty persists as the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz remains unresolved. Meanwhile, since the start of 2026, the number of truck drivers has plummeted due to stricter regulations imposed by the Trump administration, and as expected, trucking rates are surging (see graph on the right below). The industry is concerned that a trucking bottleneck will follow the shipping bottleneck.  

The Economist reports that Texas is emerging as a new hub of the U.S. economy. Citing an analysis by CBRE, a real estate services firm, the report notes that approximately 184 companies, including Tesla and Caterpillar, moved their headquarters to Austin, Dallas, and Houston between 2020 and 2025, and that Texas accounted for about 20% of job creation across the United States. In the early 2020s, Texas saw a large influx of remote workers seeking to escape high taxes, expensive housing, and unreasonable policies in major coastal cities like New York and Los Angeles. During the Biden administration, the state benefited from subsidies for green energy projects and semiconductor facilities, and recently, this trend has expanded to include data centers and the battery storage industry. Texas’s lax regulations are attractive, and the state is expected to continue drawing many companies and people in the future. 

North American Vessel Dwell Times

TPEB (Trans-Pacific Eastbound) Trends

The Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) route from Asia to the U.S. has entered the peak season earlier than usual, and a shortage of shipping capacity is rapidly spreading. Since the start of June, major carriers’ services have been fully booked one after another, leading to a significant increase in cases where shippers are forced to wait for space or roll over shipments. Freight rates are also surging. According to the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI), rates for the U.S. West Coast route rose by 30% and those for the East Coast by 20% in the first week of June, with an additional increase of approximately 10% reflected in the second week of June. The industry analyzes that “structural pressure on freight rates has intensified due to simultaneous increases in demand and supply constraints.” Compounded by the Panama Canal’s draft restriction (50 ft → 49.5 ft), shipping capacity to the U.S. East Coast has been further reduced. Carriers are requesting advance bookings from shippers, stating that “scheduling adjustments and cargo volume restrictions are unavoidable.” The market assesses that booking at least 3–4 weeks in advance is virtually mandatory. In particular, for urgent cargo, timely shipment is difficult unless premium services are utilized.

Will AI Shake Up the Forwarding Industry’s ‘Labor Arbitrage Model’? Fundamental Changes in Labor Cost Structures Amid the Spread of Automation

As many people wonder about the ripple effects of artificial intelligence (AI) on various industries, JOC has drawn attention with its analysis of AI’s future impact on the forwarding industry. The forwarding industry, a core pillar of the logistics sector, is also seeing its existing business model shaken by artificial intelligence (AI). JOC analyzes that while forwarders have traditionally generated profits through a labor-intensive operational structure and so-called “labor arbitrage”—exploiting wage disparities between countries—this structure is rapidly weakening as AI-based automation spreads. Labor costs account for the largest portion of the freight forwarding cost structure, primarily because most tasks—such as shipping document processing and operational management—have relied on manual labor. JOC forecasts that if AI adoption gains momentum, these operational costs could be reduced by approximately 15–35% within the next two to three years. J.P. Morgan forecasts that if AI is successfully implemented, forwarders could reduce labor costs by approximately 20% and achieve margins of 30–45% alongside expanded market share. Furthermore, the analysis indicates that automation rates for specific business processes could reach 60–80%, with resulting cost savings potentially increasing by up to three to four times. However, the prevailing view is that AI will not completely replace the forwarding industry as a whole. This is because human involvement remains essential in areas requiring complex decision-making, such as customer service, customs risk management, and claims processing. Industry experts predict that AI automation will eventually become a “basic competitive requirement” rather than a “differentiator.” They anticipate that as cost savings are ultimately reflected in customer prices and spread across the industry, the competitive gap between companies may narrow once again.

Food and Beverage Company PepsiCo Operates 35 Autonomous Trucks in Arizona

PepsiCo, a global food and beverage company based in the U.S., is introducing driverless trucks that require no human drivers into its logistics operations and is pushing for the commercialization of next-generation autonomous trucks. According to the Wall Street Journal, PepsiCo is currently operating 35 fully autonomous trucks in Arizona. PepsiCo’s driverless trucks utilize “Level 4” technology, which refers to a technical level where vehicles can operate “100% autonomously” without human monitoring. PepsiCo’s large-scale deployment of Level 4 trucks marks the first such initiative among major U.S. consumer goods companies. In addition to Arizona, PepsiCo is currently operating five driverless trucks in Texas and one in Arkansas. The growth of autonomous trucks is expected to accelerate as it addresses the recent driver shortage issue.

USMCA Review: Uncertain Whether an Agreement Can Be Reached by the 2026 Deadline… Automotive ROO Is the Main Point of Contention

With the US, Mexico, and Canada failing to find common ground on key issues regarding the 2026 USMCA review, expectations are growing that it will be difficult to reach a renewal agreement by the July 1, 2026 deadline. According to industry sources familiar with the negotiations, while a tentative agreement with Mexico is possible this fall, negotiations with Canada are likely to be delayed until July 2027. The reason is the U.S. demand for stricter rules of origin (ROO) for automobiles. It is reported that the U.S. is seeking to raise the current Regional Value Content (RVC) requirement from 75% to 82% and, in addition, is demanding a mandatory 50% use of U.S.-made parts and materials; however, Mexico and Canada are strongly opposing this, arguing that it amounts to “effectively forcing production within the U.S.” In addition, adjustments to tariffs on steel, aluminum, and automobiles are also on the negotiating table, but analysts assess that any substantial easing will likely only be possible at the very end of the negotiations. The industry warns that “if the automotive ROO is not resolved, the entire negotiation schedule could face a domino effect of delays,” and is closely monitoring the risk of a restructuring of the North American supply chain in 2026–2027.

Surge in Demand for AI Data Center Components… Pacific Air Cargo Market Overheating to ‘All-Time High’ Levels

Air cargo shipments from Asia to the U.S. are recording record-high volumes, driven by surging demand for AI data center infrastructure. In recent months, demand has soared to the point where 46 cargo planes’ worth of cargo are fully loaded each day, driven by a concentration of high-value high-tech goods such as servers, semiconductors, and power equipment. From January to April, high-tech cargo shipments from Asia to North America increased by 70% year-over-year. By country, major production hubs such as Taiwan (276%), Thailand (223%), and Vietnam (110%) saw triple-digit growth. In contrast, general cargo increased by only 3%, while e-commerce cargo actually decreased by 12%. Freight rates have also skyrocketed due to the surge in demand. Spot rates for Shanghai to North America reached a record high of $7.23/kg this year. Given the high-value and sensitive nature of these shipments, there is a growing preference for direct cargo flights over transshipments, further exacerbating the supply shortage. The industry notes that “demand from Asia is likely to remain strong for the time being” and is advising shippers to secure lead times and adopt early booking strategies. In contrast, rates on routes from Europe to the U.S. are falling as belly capacity expands due to increased passenger flight operations driven by the summer vacation season.