US Logistics Update [Jul 4, 2026]-English

U.S. media outlets are reporting that, as of this week, the U.S. economy appears to be entering a phase of overall deceleration, with a slowdown in the labor market, a decline in leading economic indicators, and increased volatility in tech stocks all occurring simultaneously. First, the U.S. Department of Labor reported that nonfarm payrolls (NFP) for June fell from 272,000 in May to 175,000 in June, a decrease of 97,000, indicating a slowdown in the labor market. The June unemployment rate improved to 4.2% from 4.3% in May, but the labor force participation rate fell by 0.3 percentage points to 61.5%, marking its lowest level since 2021. In other words, while the unemployment rate fell, this was not due to improved employment but rather to a significant drop in the labor force participation rate. The ISM (Institute for Supply Management) PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index), which combines manufacturing and services, also declined: the manufacturing PMI fell from 55.1 to 53.9 (–1.2 points), and the services PMI dropped from 54.8 to 54.0 (–0.8 points). The PMI is a key leading indicator where a reading above 50 signals economic expansion and below 50 indicates contraction; this decline signals that “while the economy hasn’t turned down, the pace of expansion has slowed.” Additionally, with major Big Tech companies such as Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, and Meta set to begin reporting earnings next week, volatility centered on tech stocks is increasing. Experts assess that, with the slowdown in the labor market, weakening economic momentum, and uncertainty surrounding Big Tech companies’ earnings all converging in a single week, the U.S. economy has entered a phase of “adjusting its pace” and “searching for direction” in the short term. The earnings reports from Big Tech companies are expected to have a significant impact not only on logistics but also on the global economy.

Supply Chain Uncertainty Rises Amid Review of the USMCA

It has been reported that the U.S. government plans to reject the automatic extension of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) and instead transition to an annual review of the agreement’s implementation over the next 10 years, which is expected to add new uncertainty to North American supply chains as a whole. Although this decision was to some extent anticipated by the market, it is expected to have significant repercussions once implemented, particularly posing major challenges for companies in formulating medium- to long-term investment plans. This is because, while automotive, electronics, and consumer goods companies have previously operated their production and logistics networks based on the USMCA, they will now have to factor in the possibility of annual changes to tariffs, rules of origin, and customs clearance procedures. In particular, the industry analyzes that companies utilizing cross-border logistics between the U.S., Mexico, and Canada must prepare for the possibility of increased transportation and supply chain operating costs due to future regulatory changes.

North American Vessel Dwell Times

TPEB (Trans-Pacific Eastbound) Trends

Demand on the TPEB route is surging as U.S. wholesale inventories have fallen to their lowest level in 12 years and the inventory-to-sales ratio is declining at its fastest pace in 34 years. Carrier blank sailings in Week 27 were virtually zero, and despite total July capacity reaching its highest level in the past 3.5 years, supply shortages are intensifying across all segments. With Section 122 tariffs expiring on July 24, shippers’ frontloading efforts accelerated, and SCFI rates for the West Coast and East Coast rose by 7%. Carriers began implementing rate increases and imposing PSS and BAF charges on all routes effective July 1. The industry forecasts that upward pressure on rates will continue as demand remains stronger than supply, despite an increase in supply.

CMA CGM Acquires FedEx Supply Chain for $1.4 Billion

French shipping and logistics company CMA CGM announced that it has signed an agreement to acquire FedEx Supply Chain, FedEx’s contract logistics division, for $1.4 billion. The transaction is expected to be finalized by the end of this year, pending approval from relevant regulatory authorities. The acquired business will be integrated into CEVA Logistics, a logistics subsidiary of the CMA CGM Group. Through this acquisition, CEVA Logistics will grow into a major contract logistics provider in North America, operating approximately 20,000 employees, 240 locations, and 150 warehouses. FedEx stated that this divestiture is part of its strategy to focus on its core businesses. Raj Subramaniam, CEO of FedEx, announced, “By simplifying our business portfolio, we are now able to strengthen our services for customers in high-value-added industries such as healthcare, automotive, aerospace, and data centers, and pursue our long-term growth strategy.” However, FedEx Logistics (formerly FedEx Trade Networks), FedEx’s freight forwarding division, will continue to operate as is. While the industry views this transaction as an extension of CMA CGM’s strategy to strengthen its integrated logistics business, there is some skepticism regarding FedEx’s decision to divest core logistics operations, such as its warehouses.

CBP Warns of Intensified Crackdown on Anti-Dumping Duty Evasion Related to Cabinet Imports

U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has urged CTPAT member companies to exercise caution, noting an increase in anti-dumping and countervailing duty (AD/CVD) evasion during the importation of cabinets and vanities. CBP identified key violations, including the transshipment of Chinese products through third countries with false declarations of origin, undervaluation, misclassification of goods, and failure to declare AD/CVD duties. It noted that such duty evasion undermines U.S. trade laws and hinders fair competition, and announced it would take strong enforcement actions, including administrative, civil, and criminal measures. CBP also urged CTPAT member companies to strengthen supplier audits and risk assessments and to report suspicious cases immediately, warning that suspension or expulsion from the CTPAT program could result if a company is found to be involved in AD/CVD evasion.

Calls Grow for Improvements in How Shipping Lines Notify Customers of Rates and Surcharges

AgTC (Agriculture Transportation Coalition), a U.S. agricultural industry group, recently issued a statement pointing out that “shipping lines are not directly notifying customers of rate increases or new surcharges, but are instead handling these matters solely by posting them on third-party websites,” and officially called for improvements in how shipping lines notify customers of changes to rates and surcharges. Under current U.S. shipping law, carriers are only required to provide 30 days’ advance notice to the Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) when applying new rates or charges; they have no obligation to notify customers directly. As a result, exporters have repeatedly complained that they often receive only a message stating “rates are about to increase,” only to discover the actual amounts belatedly buried deep within complex tariff websites. The AgTC has requested that the FMC establish new regulations or amend the Shipping Act, arguing that carriers should be required to notify customers directly and free of charge of changes to rates and surcharges via electronic means such as email. Furthermore, AgTC emphasizes that the current notification system is inadequate for protecting customers, stating, “Unless you constantly monitor the website, you cannot find out about new charges in a timely manner.” If this request leads to regulatory changes, shipping companies’ methods for announcing rates and surcharges are likely to shift toward direct customer notification.

USPS to Significantly Revise Package Regulations and Rates Effective July 12… Tighter Volume-Weight Standards

The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) plans to implement adjustments to measurement regulations and rates for all parcel services effective July 12. The key changes include a requirement to accurately report the length, width, and height of packages; failure to provide these measurements or providing incorrect measurements will result in a $3 “dimension discrepancy fee.” Additionally, for large, lightweight shipments of 1 cubic foot or more, the DIM divisor will be lowered from 166 to 139, applying the same dimensional weight standards as UPS and FedEx. Consequently, shipping costs for lightweight, bulky items are expected to rise. For the Ground Advantage service, which is a ground shipping service, the per-ounce rate for shipments weighing less than 1 pound has been eliminated, and all small shipments will be consolidated under the 15.999-ounce rate. Dangerous goods regulations have also been tightened; a $7.50 handling fee will be charged for Priority Mail and Express dangerous goods, and a new $50 fine has been introduced for undeclared or misdeclared dangerous goods. The industry notes that the USPS is adjusting its rates and volumetric weight rules to align with those of major competitors such as FedEx and UPS, and forecasts that e-commerce companies and shippers of lightweight and large packages will be most significantly affected.

Air Cargo Market from Asia to the U.S. Sees Continued Strong Demand… Freight Rates Show Signs of Stabilization

The air cargo market from Asia to the U.S. appears to be maintaining robust growth through the first half of 2026. According to a report by WorldAcd, air cargo volume originating from the Asia-Pacific region increased by 10% year-over-year as of June, and cumulative volume for the first half of the year also grew by 8%. While market demand remains steady, freight rates are still at high levels; current spot rates for shipments originating in the Asia-Pacific region are 47% higher than last year. However, rates have recently shown a gradual trend toward stabilization. The industry attributes this stabilization to the normalization of air routes and the recovery of supply capacity following the easing of tensions in the Middle East. In fact, global air cargo supply has recently been on the rise, and as major airlines have announced reductions in fuel surcharges following the drop in oil prices, upward pressure on freight rates is gradually easing. Experts expect the market for shipments from Asia to the U.S. to maintain robust cargo demand in the second half of the year, but they forecast that, due to increased supply and reduced cost burdens, freight rates are likely to enter a phase of gradual stabilization rather than the sharp spikes seen in the first half.

Air Cargo Market Trends