US Logistics Update [Jul 25, 2026]-English

As the conflict with Iran appears to be escalating—with Houthi rebels reportedly attacking a Saudi oil tanker and Bahrain and Kuwait, with the help of the UAE, reportedly striking military facilities inside Iran—The Washington Post (WP) reported on the 20th that U.S. intelligence analysts have concluded that, despite President Trump’s willingness to expand airstrikes against Iran, the likelihood of Iran changing its stance and coming to the negotiating table is extremely low. Intelligence officials assessed that a hardline strategy, such as deploying ground troops, would only prolong the stalemate and place a significant political burden on President Trump. The WP reported, “Analysts believe that despite Iran’s loss of a significant number of top leaders and military equipment, the regime’s resilience remains strong, and the influence of hardliners—particularly those centered around the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC)—is growing,” adding that, citing anonymous current and former officials, this intelligence assessment was primarily prepared by the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) and reported to the Trump administration.

As tensions between the U.S. and Iran have flared up again, selling pressure on U.S. Treasury bonds has continued, and Brent crude futures prices have surged by more than 30% this month. Some analysts predict that if hostilities persist, oil prices could remain in the triple digits for the rest of the year. Furthermore, as the rebound in oil prices has reignited inflation concerns, experts are increasingly expecting the U.S. Federal Reserve to raise its benchmark interest rate. Meanwhile, concerns over disruptions to oil supplies are deepening as Iran-backed Houthi rebels launch attacks in the Red Sea. If the Bab el-Mandeb (Bab al-Mandeb), ships would have to take a massive detour around Africa, adding 10 to 15 days to their voyage. Furthermore, because large oil tankers are too deep-drafted to pass through the Suez Canal, they would be forced to sail with only a partial cargo, leading to reduced transport efficiency and a shortage of shipping capacity, which is expected to significantly increase shipping costs.

Ahead of the expiration on the 23rd of the “10% global tariff” introduced by the Trump administration following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in February that mutual tariffs were invalid, the administration is replacing it by imposing “forced labor tariffs” ranging from 10% to 12.5% on 60 countries worldwide under Section 301 of the Trade Act. A 10% tariff is imposed on countries such as India that have laws to eradicate forced labor, while a 12.5% tariff is imposed on countries without such laws. These tariffs took effect at 12:01 a.m. on the 24th (Eastern Time), and goods currently in transit are exempt until 12:01 a.m. on the 28th. Experts analyze that the forced labor tariff has stronger legal standing than the basis for the previous tariff, which the Supreme Court ruled unconstitutional; they predict that the economic ripple effects will be limited since the tax rate is similar to that of existing global tariffs.

North American Vessel Dwell Times  

Gemini Achieves 97% Reliability on TPEB Routes in April–May… Proves Structural Advantage by Leading Competitors by 30 Points

In the global container ship reliability rankings for the two-month period from April to May 2026, Maersk and Hapag’s “Gemini” network ranked among the industry’s top performers, recording approximately 97% on-time performance on both the Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) and Westbound (TPEWB) routes. This figure represents a lead of more than 30 points over competitors during the same period, demonstrating that the two companies’ hub-and-spoke structure is translating into tangible operational results. Across the industry as a whole, the U.S. West Coast (WC) recorded a reliability rate approximately 5.5 points higher than the East Coast (EC). Experts analyzed that “the ECNA (U.S. East Coast) route is structurally characterized by longer sailing distances and prolonged exposure to port congestion and weather variables, resulting in a reliability penalty.” Furthermore, while some alliances maintain high on-time performance, others experience a relatively high frequency of blank sailings; therefore, experts advise that a portfolio strategy utilizing multiple alliances—rather than relying on a single alliance—is essential. Experts emphasized, “2026 is not a year in which route-specific volatility will completely disappear. There is no single ‘best alliance,’ and shippers and forwarders must develop multi-layered transportation strategies that take into account routes, time periods, and seasonality.”

U.S. Trucking Market Enters Phase of Rising Freight Rates Due to Structural Supply Decline

The U.S. trucking market is emerging from a prolonged slump and entering a new growth cycle as freight demand recovers and the supply of trucks decreases simultaneously, and pressure for freight rate increases is gaining momentum. In particular, this shift is viewed as a structural change rather than a short-term market fluctuation and is expected to persist for a considerable period. The U.S. trucking market is currently exhibiting patterns different from the past: while demand is gradually recovering, the number of carriers and drivers participating in the market is actually declining. Coupled with stricter regulations and rising operating costs, this is exacerbating the supply shortage. The primary cause of these market changes is the recently tightened regulatory environment for trucking. Following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling in “Montgomery v. Caribe Transport,” the liability of freight brokers in selecting carriers has expanded, forcing truck brokers to scrutinize carriers’ safety records and operational histories more rigorously. Consequently, it has become more difficult for new or small carriers to enter the market. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration’s (FMCSA) intensified crackdown on fraud is also contributing to the supply shortage. This year, the FMCSA introduced the “MODUS” system to implement carrier verification procedures using government-issued IDs and facial recognition technology, thereby strengthening enforcement against fraudulent carriers, carriers using stolen identities, and so-called “zombie carriers.” Driver qualification management has also been significantly tightened; the U.S. government is actively enforcing English proficiency requirements for Commercial Driver’s License (CDL) holders and is expanding the suspension of operating privileges for violations. Furthermore, there is a rising trend in the revocation of visas for CDL holders from Mexico. Since June 2025, approximately 20,000 carriers have been suspended for violations such as failing to meet English proficiency requirements, and with an additional 20,000 visas for Mexican CDL holders being revoked, the contraction in the driver supply is accelerating. The actual decline in the number of truck drivers is also confirmed by statistics. According to data from the Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), part of the U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT), the number of CDL drivers in the United States decreased by approximately 850,000 from December 2024 to May 2026 (see table below). This represents approximately 15% of the total number of drivers; specifically, the number of CDL renewals in California—a major logistics hub—decreased by 26% year-over-year, while in Texas, the decline was 31%.

The decline in supply is leading to higher freight rates. While winter storms and severe weather at the beginning of the year, followed by soaring fuel costs, were initially cited as the main causes of the rate increases, the upward trend has continued even after fuel prices stabilized following the recent ceasefire in the Iran conflict, confirming a structural supply shortage in the market. These high freight rates are expected to persist into the second half of the year. The reason is, first, that unlike in the past, even if freight rates rise, new carriers are unlikely to enter the market quickly due to stricter regulations and higher operating costs. Furthermore, even if oil prices fall, it is expected to be difficult to reverse the upward trend in freight rates itself. Although the rise in fuel costs has slowed in recent months, freight rates continue to climb, demonstrating that the key driver of the market is not fuel costs but rather a supply shortage. The impact of adverse weather or natural disasters on the market is also expected to last for weeks rather than just a few days, as supply capacity has significantly diminished. In summary, the U.S. trucking market is entering a classic supply shortage phase characterized by simultaneous demand recovery and supply contraction. A decline in the number of drivers, stricter regulations, and carrier exits are reshaping the market structure; consequently, upward pressure on freight rates is highly likely to persist not only through the second half of 2026 but also into 2027.

U.S. Retail Sales Rise for Ninth Consecutive Month

The U.S. Census Bureau announced that U.S. retail sales in June 2026 reached $768.6 billion, up 0.2% from the previous month and 6.7% from the same period last year, marking the ninth consecutive month of growth. According to the statistics, total retail sales for the second quarter (April–June) rose 6.4% year-over-year. Online sales (non-store retail, including e-commerce) showed the strongest growth, up 1.9% month-over-month and 14.2% year-over-year, while general merchandise sales also increased by 3.5% year-over-year. The National Retail Federation’s (NRF) NRF Retail Monitor also assessed consumer spending as robust, noting that total retail sales rose 0.33% month-over-month and core retail sales increased 0.36% month-over-month, with annual growth rates of approximately 9–10% for each category. NRF President Matthew Shay noted that consumers started summer sales and back-to-school shopping early, and that the job market remains strong, supporting consumer spending. By sector, nearly all categories showed growth, including Sports, Hobbies, and Bookstores: +18.5%; Electronics: +14.2%; Apparel: +13.7%; Digital Goods: +13.6%; Health and Personal Care: +12.9%; and General Merchandise Stores: +9.9%.

IEEPA / CAPE Update

As U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) gradually expands the IEEPA tariff refund process, a large-scale refund effort is underway across the entire import industry. As of July 2026, Phases 1 and 2 of the CAPE program have already been implemented, and Phase 3 is pending the release of guidelines. In Phases 1 and 2, IEEPA duties totaling $166 billion were assessed across 330,000 importers and 53 million import entries; of this amount, approximately $121.7 billion has been approved for refund, meaning nearly 80% of the total amount collected has entered the settlement process. In Phase 3, which is to be announced in the future, final determinations involving IORs (importers of record) who have filed lawsuits will be eligible for CAPE, and the process is expected to proceed with importers and their legal representatives submitting CAPE applications in accordance with the procedures outlined by CBP. The industry anticipates a processing period of 60 to 90 days, similar to Phases 1 and 2. While experts note that “filing a lawsuit is currently the only way to receive a refund for final assessments,” they leave open the possibility that the program may be expanded to include all IORs’ final assessments in future phases. However, they point out that lawsuits are subject to a two-year statute of limitations, requiring companies to make strategic decisions on a case-by-case basis.

 Wing and Walmart Expand Drone Delivery Service to 7 U.S. Cities

Wing, a drone delivery specialist, and Walmart, a major U.S. retailer, announced that they are accelerating the widespread adoption of drone delivery by adding seven new metropolitan areas in the U.S. to their service coverage. The newly included areas are Memphis, New Orleans, Philadelphia, Phoenix, San Diego, San Francisco, and Salt Lake City. The two companies are already operating services in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, and Atlanta areas and plan to provide ultra-fast delivery services to more consumers through this expansion. Wing explained that it has completed over 1 million commercial drone deliveries to date and is establishing drone delivery as an everyday retail service through its partnership with Walmart. Wing’s drones can fly at speeds of up to 60 miles per hour (approximately 97 km/h) and deliver packages by suspending them from a line and safely lowering them onto customers’ yards or driveways. Delivery times are as fast as 30 minutes after an order is placed, and the service is currently being used to deliver items with urgent demand, such as groceries, household goods, and electronics. Through this service expansion, the two companies aim to provide drone delivery services to approximately 40 million residents across the United States. Industry observers note that the combination of Walmart’s extensive network of brick-and-mortar stores and Wing’s drone operation technology and FAA approval system is enabling drone delivery to move beyond the experimental stage and establish itself as a practical last-mile logistics infrastructure.

Air Cargo Market to Face Ongoing Cost Pressures in the Second Half of 2026… Spot Rates Enter a Phase of Gradual Adjustment

Xeneta analyzes that as volatility in the air cargo market increases, more cargo is being directed to the spot market to test prices, creating an environment where shippers find it difficult to lock in current rate levels for the long term. Xeneta notes that both airlines and shippers are reluctant to enter into long-term contracts and predicts that the expansion of short-term contracts will further increase cost volatility in the second half of the year. Changes in contract structures are also evident, with the share of one-month short-term contracts surging from 9% in the second quarter of 2025 to 22% in the second quarter of 2026 (see table below). Experts advise, “In the second half of 2026, the air cargo market will continue to experience structural tension characterized by ‘freight rates falling gradually while costs remain stubbornly high,’” adding, “Shippers must respond to this volatility through a portfolio strategy that combines spot, short-term, and medium-term contracts.”

MSC Air Cargo Places New Order for 5 Boeing 777-8F Freighters; DHL Orders 13 777-200LRMF (Modified Freighters)

MSC Air Cargo announced that it has placed a new order for five Boeing 777-8F next-generation freighters. Since its launch in 2022, MSC Air Cargo has continued to expand its global cargo network. The company currently operates seven Boeing 777-200F aircraft. Due to certification delays for the 777-9, the development schedule for the newly ordered aircraft has been pushed back to 2028 or later, and they are scheduled to be delivered sequentially starting in the early 2030s. Along with forecasts of growing air cargo demand in the medium to long term and a surge in demand for fleet replacement, demand for large cargo aircraft has been steadily increasing recently. China Southern Airlines has signed a contract for five 777-8Fs with options for three additional aircraft, and China Airlines has also expanded its fleet of the same model to a total of eight aircraft, as competition to secure long-haul aircraft continues across the air cargo industry. Unable to secure new aircraft models, DHL decided to acquire 777-200LRMF (modified cargo aircraft) from Mammoth Freighters, a Florida-based cargo aircraft modification company. The company unveiled the first aircraft at the Farnborough Airshow in the UK this week and placed an order for 13 additional units. Qatar Airways Cargo has also signed a contract for five Mammoth-modified aircraft.