US Logistics Update [Jul 18, 2026]-English

Setting aside the accuracy and reliability of the statistics, with the unemployment rate stabilizing in the low 4% range and the Fed and the markets focusing their attention on inflation, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics announced on the 14th that the U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) for June rose 3.5% year-over-year. The rate of increase slowed compared to May’s 4.2% and fell short of the 3.8% forecast by experts surveyed by Dow Jones. On a month-over-month basis, it fell 0.4%, also falling short of the experts’ forecast of -0.2%. The core CPI, excluding food and energy, rose 2.6% year-over-year. The Producer Price Index (PPI) also rose 5.5% year-over-year, while the core PPI—excluding energy and food—rose 4.5%, falling short of analysts’ expectations. With inflation coming in below expectations, the market reacted with significant relief. Meanwhile, Federal Reserve (Fed) Chairman Kevin Warsh testified before the U.S. House of Representatives on the 14th, expressing his determination not to tolerate persistently high inflation. He reaffirmed the Fed’s long-standing principle of prioritizing price stability and declared his willingness to raise interest rates without hesitation.

The Trump administration’s decision to limit the length of stay for international students coming to the U.S. to study to four years is expected to cause a major uproar. On the 16th, the U.S. Department of Homeland Security (DHS) announced a final regulation limiting the stay of international students holding F visas and exchange visitors holding J visas to a maximum of four years. This measure effectively abolishes the “Duration of Status” system, which has been the standard for approving international student stays for decades. Until now, international students could legally remain in the country through an automatic extension process until they completed their degree programs—regardless of their visa duration—as long as they proved they were enrolled in school. However, once the new regulation takes effect, students who fail to complete their studies within four years will have to apply for a separate extension of stay. DHS has stated that “this will only be possible after a rigorous review,” suggesting that approval for extensions will not be easy. Furthermore, students who have already entered the U.S. on student visas and are currently studying there are expected to be automatically subject to the “four-year stay” rule, which is anticipated to cause significant confusion.

North American Vessel Dwell Times

U.S. Government Expands Comprehensive Crackdown on Tariff Evasion… Following CBP, DOJ Also Strengthens Trade Enforcement Unit

The U.S. government is comprehensively strengthening import clearance and customs enforcement. While the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has recently been stepping up warnings and enforcement against false declarations of origin, transshipment, and customs evasion, the U.S. Department of Justice (DOJ) has now launched a new dedicated trade enforcement unit and issued guidelines for investigating trade fraud. In these guidelines, the DOJ identifies customs evasion, undervaluation of imports, and transshipment through third countries as key enforcement targets. Given that the DOJ is expanding the operation of a separate dedicated unit, the industry views this not as a one-off measure but as a long-term policy to strengthen enforcement, interpreting it as a sign that government oversight is intensifying not only through tariff hikes but also at the actual enforcement stage. Accordingly, companies importing from countries with high tariffs, such as China, are advised to strengthen internal audits regarding proof of origin, HS Code classification, declared value calculations, and customs payment records. Risks are expected to increase not only in future customs clearance processes related to tariffs but also in post-entry audits.

USTR: “Current Tariff System Expected to Persist Long-Term”… Need to Reevaluate Supply Chain Strategies

The Office of the United States Trade Representative (USTR) has stated that the various tariff measures currently in effect are likely to remain in place for a considerable period even after the current administration’s term ends, suggesting that companies should view tariffs not as a temporary policy but as a long-term operating cost. While the U.S. often continues the policies of the previous administration even after a change in leadership (a prime example being the Biden administration’s continuation of the tariffs on China imposed during Trump’s first term), the industry views the USTR’s remarks as serious. It anticipates that tariffs on major importing countries, including China, will have a lasting impact on supply chain strategies and pricing policies, and emphasizes the need for importers to manage costs and diversify their sourcing efforts.

Concerns Over Supply Glut in the Container Shipping Industry Grow Beyond 2027

While there were concerns about oversupply in the global container shipping industry due to the massive influx of new vessels, it appears that the impact of these new vessels will be limited through 2026 due to the Red Sea crisis and route diversions. Specifically, of the 44 new vessels of 8,000 TEU or more delivered this year, 37 vessels totaling 328,584 TEU (more than 54% of the total) have been absorbed by demand for rerouted voyages on the Europe–Middle East–India routes; notably, only 7 vessels (88,000 TEU) have been deployed on U.S. routes. However, the industry is projected to face a severe supply glut starting in 2027 due to the large-scale delivery of new vessels. The global order backlog stands at 12.3 million TEU (37% of the existing fleet), of which 2.3 million TEU are scheduled for delivery in 2027, 3.8 million TEU in 2028. Concerns are mounting that the oversupply could worsen if the capacity absorbed by vessels rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope due to the Red Sea crisis returns to the market following the normalization of Suez Canal operations. According to analysis, the scale of the oversupply could expand to as much as 20–25% or more. Industry experts predict that the increase in new shipping capacity and geopolitical risks will serve as key variables in the shipping market over the next two to three years.

Supply Chain Demand Volatility on the Rise… Expert: “Enhancing Responsiveness Is More Important Than Forecasting”

On the 13th, Supply Chain 24/7, a U.S. media outlet specializing in supply chains, introduced five strategies for addressing “Demand Whiplash” in an op-ed by Kendrick Hair, Chief Evangelist at Fishbowl Inventory. Hair explained that, unlike in the past, the current supply chain environment is exposed to various variables—such as changes in tariff policies, increased supplier lead times, logistics disruptions, and unexpected surges in orders—and that traditional demand forecasting methods based solely on historical sales data are showing their limitations. As the first response strategy, he proposed comprehensively analyzing sales data from recent years while assigning greater weight to the most recent data. He explained that historical data serves only as a reference and may not fully reflect current market conditions (Step 1: Map Real Demand Curves). Second, he emphasized that rather than maintaining a fixed level of safety stock, it should be continuously adjusted to reflect product-specific demand volatility and changes in supplier lead times, noting that this approach allows companies to reduce unnecessary inventory burdens while maintaining customer service levels (Step 2: Make Safety Stock Dynamic). They also highlighted the importance of preparing in advance for supply chain risks, advising that response scenarios should be established in advance to address potential crises such as supply disruptions or tariff increases, and that verified alternative suppliers should be secured beforehand to reduce reliance on a single supplier (Step 3: Run Sourcing Scenarios Before You Need Them / Step 4: Diversify Before the Disruption, Not During It). He also explained that it is essential to establish an early-warning system to continuously monitor changes in supplier delivery times, customer order patterns, and trends in freight rates and raw material prices (Step 5: Build Early-Warning Signals). Hair emphasized, “Supply chain resilience is not about getting every prediction exactly right, but rather the ability to make decisions quickly and confidently even in a changing environment.”

Xeneta: Air Freight Rates to Rise 5–15% in 2026… Pacific Routes to Be Most Affected

Xeneta, a global freight rate data platform that analyzes air and ocean freight rates in real time, has announced that air freight rates in 2026 will rise by 5–15%—contrary to previous forecasts—due to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Xeneta attributes this primarily to the conflict in Iran that began on February 28, which caused 12% of the global cargo aircraft supply to disappear overnight, resulting in global supply growth of just 1% in the first half of the year, while demand rose by 4%. As a result, global air freight rates (spot + long-term) rose 17% year-over-year in the first half of the year, with spot rates surging approximately 40% in May to reach a peak. The report explains that while shipments of AI-related semiconductors and hardware are driving strong demand, global semiconductor sales in April increased by 106% to reach an all-time high. Although AI-related cargo accounts for less than 10% of the total, it is concentrated on routes to the U.S., exerting a direct and significant impact on the U.S. market, according to the analysis.