US Logistics Update [Jul 12, 2025]-English

Updated: Jul 20

President Trump issued an executive order on July 7 delaying the suspension of reciprocal tariffs from July 9 to August 1. This means that all US trading partners will be subject to the existing reciprocal tariffs until August 1, except China, whose 10% reciprocal tariff rate expires on August 12. Meanwhile, Trump's last-minute intervention proved to be very upsetting for Vietnam, which was notified of the 20% tariffs, Bloomberg reported. Vietnam had initially sought a 10% to 15% tariff and was reportedly in agreement with 11%, but Trump's last-minute intervention led to the 20% tariff. Vietnam is the 7th largest importer of US goods, with an import share of 4.5% (Graph below, first), and is expected to have a significant impact on the tariff rates of Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, and other countries with similar trade volumes. In particular, it is highly likely that the tariff rate will be higher than the current 10% temporary tariff.

In addition, trade policy changes are pushing the U.S. warehouse vacancy rate to an 11-year high of

7.1% in the second quarter of this year, the WSJ reported (graph above, second). Despite the high

vacancy rate, warehouse rents are rising at a 3% annualized rate, as companies are delaying lease

signings and maximizing the use of existing warehouses due to tariff policy uncertainty.

Automakers are stepping up their promotion of electric vehicle purchases ahead of the expiration of a $7,500 tax credit in September, Reuters reports. Tesla's homepage says, "$7,500 Federal Tax Credit Ends. Take delivery by September 30, 2025," and Ford is extending its free home charger and installation offer through the end of September to attract EV buyers. Some analysts believe that consumers who have been putting off purchases may be more likely to do so in early Q3. Meanwhile, research from Berkeley and other universities suggests that the end of the tax credit could lead to a 27% drop in electric vehicle registrations.

FDA-Regulated De Minimis Must Go Through FDA Review (July 9)
On July 9, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) announced that all de minimis shipments subject to FDA regulations must now go through FDA Review, effective immediately. Previously, many de minimis shipments subject to FDA regulations were exempt from FDA Review. With this action, FDA-regulated De Minimis shipments must now include Partner Government Agency (PGA) data. Meanwhile, De Minimis will be completely repealed on July 1, 2027 under the BBB Act, which was passed last week.

US Bank Completes First Digital Bill of Lading (eBL) Transaction, Accelerating Digital Transformation of Trade Finance
US Bank has completed its first trade finance transaction utilizing digital bills of lading (eBL), taking a step closer to its goal of 100% digital BoL by 2030. The transaction was facilitated through WaveBL software, with MSC as the carrier. The digital BoL replaces the traditional document delivery process, reducing days of document delivery to minutes, increasing security and efficiency, while the adoption of eBLs will reduce the need for letters of credit (LCs) in the long term, which is expected to change the structure of finance and logistics.

Dockworkers' Unions from Around the World to Gather in Lisbon in November to Stop Port Automation
Dockworkers' unions from around the world will meet in Lisbon on November 5 for an “Anti-Automation Conference” to explore joint action against port automation. Led by the International Longshoremen's Association (ILA), representing the US East and Gulf region, and the International Dockworkers Council (IDC), representing Europe and South America, the meeting will discuss strategies to protect labor rights and preserve jobs under the theme “People over Profit.” While the proliferation of AI-5G-based automation in container terminals has sparked strikes and conflicts in the U.S., Europe is wary of automation but is gradually embracing it as a competitive advantage. The meeting will focus on the possibility of cross-border solidarity strikes and establishing a joint response roadmap.

Air Cargo Market Impact of Delayed Tariffs
WorldACD notes that the Trump administration's announcement that it will further delay the imposition of reciprocal tariffs until August 1 could lead to a resurgence in frontloading by major trading partners such as Japan and South Korea. This is because tariff rates similar to those imposed on Vietnam, the EU, and Mexico are expected to be imposed on these countries, with the current temporary rate of 10% being much lower.

In the long term, the repeal of De Minimis will have a significant impact on the future air cargo

market and air cargo growth rates, as it is expected to weaken U.S.-Asia trade after the tariff

negotiations are completed, causing a significant amount of Pacific freighter capacity to be

diverted to other routes. However, although there is a great concern that the abolition of De Minimis

will lead to a contraction in air cargo demand, the air cargo market has always faced a new turning

point with the emergence of new growth engines, so it is necessary to observe the market flow and

flexibly respond to changes.