US Logistics Update [Jan 3, 2026]-English

• President Trump held a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago residence in Florida on the 3rd, announcing that Venezuelan President Maduro had been ousted and stating, “We will run the country (Venezuela) until a safe, proper, and wise (power) transition can be made.” Additionally, President Trump mentioned that alongside the Venezuelan regime transition, U.S. oil companies would enter the country to increase crude oil production, thereby funding the interim government and national reconstruction. He also stated that U.S. military forces would play a physical role. President Trump also formalized that strengthening and maintaining U.S. influence in the Western Hemisphere is one of the goals of this offensive, warning that other anti-American regimes in Latin America, such as Colombia and Cuba, could be the next targets. Following last year, a major global upheaval orchestrated by President Trump is anticipated for 2026.

  Meanwhile, U.S. Senator Andy Kim stated, “This attack does not represent American strength, nor is

it sound foreign policy,” adding, “It sends a terrible and confusing signal to other powerful leaders

around the world that endangering Americans in Venezuela and the region, and targeting heads of

state, is a policy tolerated by the U.S. government.”

• Despite significant concerns that the Trump administration's tariff hikes would deal a direct blow to Mexico's economy, Mexico's exports to the U.S. actually increased. According to Mexican government data, Mexico's manufacturing exports to the U.S. from January to November this year rose by approximately 9% compared to the same period last year. By sector, while automotive exports fell by about 6%, other manufacturing exports excluding automobiles surged by 17%, driving the overall growth (see graph below). The scale of goods trade between the U.S. and Mexico is also expanding, with bilateral trade approaching approximately $900 billion annually and expected to reach a record high. Markets cite Mexico's relatively low tariff burden as a key factor maintaining its export competitiveness to the U.S. According to the Penn Wharton Budget Model, Mexico's effective tariff rate is 4.7%, compared to China's effective tariff rate of 37.1%. The effects of the USMCA free trade agreement also persist. Currently, about 85% of Mexico's total exports enter the U.S. market duty-free under the USMCA framework.

Following Mexico, Vietnam is another winner in Trump's tariff war, reports the WSJ. According to the

U.S. Census Bureau, Vietnam's exports to the U.S. from January to September this year increased

by 42% compared to the same period last year.

  Meanwhile, industry sources point out that a significant portion of goods produced in China will

likely be shipped to Mexico, Vietnam, and other countries, undergo so-called “label switching” to

launder their origin, and then be exported to the United States (see the graph on the right above;

analysis suggests Vietnam's export surge starting in 2025 is unrealistic given manufacturing's

inherent need for long-term investments in production facilities and workforce hiring). Reflecting

this, the Mexican government announced on January 1st that it would raise tariffs by up to 50% on

1,463 imported items designated as ‘strategic items’—including shoes, textiles, clothing,

automobiles, and machinery parts—from countries without a Free Trade Agreement (FTA), such as

China, South Korea, India, Vietnam, and Taiwan.

• According to data released on the 31st of last month by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Mastercard, nationwide holiday retail sales from November to December last year are estimated to have reached $1.02 trillion (compared to $976.1 billion in 2024), marking an all-time high. In the U.S., the holiday shopping season begins with Black Friday, the day after Thanksgiving, followed by Cyber Monday and Christmas. Major discount events occur around Black Friday, with retailers often generating anywhere from a quarter to over a third of their annual sales during this period. Experts note that while concerns about slowing consumption grew due to rising prices stemming from the Trump administration's tariff policies, consumers still flocked to both online and offline shopping during last year's end-of-year sales period. Meanwhile, generative AI chatbot features, which recommend ‘hot deals’ and help customers easily find preferred products, are credited with contributing to expanded holiday shopping season sales. Adobe analyzed that traffic to retailer sites linked with AI surged by a staggering 600% compared to the previous year.

• Deepening oversupply… Container shipping companies forecast ‘massive losses’ in 2026

  The Journal of Commerce (JOC) reports that the global container shipping industry will enter a full-fledged loss phase in 2026 as the ‘supply-demand imbalance’ worsens, with cargo demand recovery lagging behind capacity growth. Shipping consultancy Drewry estimates the container shipping industry will incur annual losses of approximately $10 billion in 2026. While shipping lines are expected to earn about $20 billion in profits in 2025 due to the Red Sea crisis effectively tying up supply as vessels diverted around the Suez Canal, analysts suggest attempts to raise freight rates will likely be limited if demand slows through 2026. Particularly on the Pacific routes, cargo volume pressure is expected to be greater as U.S. retailers manage inventory conservatively and tariff policy uncertainty persists. Moody's projects that U.S. container cargo volume in 2026 could remain flat or decline by up to 2% compared to 2025. Conversely, shipping capacity is expected to increase by 2.2% in 2026 (33.7 million TEU), leading to an assessment that supply-demand pressures will intensify. However, some observers suggest that if the Red Sea risk eases and vessels return to the Suez Canal, the shortened transit time could cause congestion at European ports (vessel crowding). This temporary supply bottleneck could enable freight rate increases, potentially providing some buffer for carrier profitability.

• Concerns Mount Over Disappearing Lunar New Year Boom in US-Pacific Freight Volumes Amid Tariff and Economic Uncertainty

  The Journal of Commerce (JOC) reports that cargo volumes on the Pacific route (Asia-US) are expected to remain weak until early 2026 due to US tariff uncertainties and economic slowdown. While front-loading of imports ahead of potential tariff hikes boosted early 2025 volumes, shipments plunged 8.8% year-on-year from September to November, clearly signaling weakening demand. Consequently, spot rates for Asia-US West Coast fell to $1,270 per FEU in mid-December, hitting their lowest level since July 2023. While the industry anticipates a rebound due to the usual pre-Lunar New Year (Spring Festival) shipment surge, the prevailing outlook is that the ‘Spring Festival boom’ will be limited due to weak consumer sentiment and policy uncertainty. Carriers are expected to review additional GRIs early next year, but the focus will likely be on defending against rate declines (maintaining the floor) rather than pursuing rate increases.

• President Trump Postpones Tariffs on Furniture and Kitchen Cabinets for One Year... U.S. Tariff Rates Expected to Remain High Through 2026

  The Trump administration announced it will postpone tariffs on certain items like furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for the next year, citing the need to ease the cost of living burden. Tariffs on kitchen cabinets and vanities were originally slated to increase from 25% to 50%, and a 30% tariff on wooden sofas was also anticipated. This measure is expected to alleviate short-term price pressures. U.S. consumer prices for furniture rose 4.6% year-on-year as of November last year. However, the prevailing view is that the overall tariff stance is unlikely to ease significantly. Yahoo Finance reported that the average tariff rate was around 2.5% in early 2025 but surged to over 15% after the start of Trump's second term. Experts anticipate that tariff reductions in 2026 will be limited. Even with exceptional easing, such as the removal of tariffs on some coffee and cocoa items in November, high tariffs are likely to remain in other sectors. The Tax Foundation estimates the average applied tariff rate at 15.8%, while the Yale Budget Lab estimates the average effective tariff rate from the consumer perspective at 16.8%, both describing it as “the highest level in about 80 years.”

• Year-end surge in ‘return agency’ services... Paying others to return unwanted gifts

  The Wall Street Journal reports a rise in using ‘return proxy’ services that handle unwanted holiday gift returns. The WSJ reports that consumers seeking to avoid busy or cumbersome return processes are increasingly using platforms like Taskrabbit and ReturnQueen to have return items picked up from their homes. These services handle transport to stores or distribution centers, affixing return labels, and even waiting in lines. According to industry sources, bookings for these services surged in November and December, with ReturnQueen expecting an additional 15-20% increase in demand during January and February. The National Retail Federation (NRF) projects that approximately 17% of all purchases made during this year's holiday season will result in returns. It analyzes that these agency services, aimed at reducing the burden and cost of returns, are emerging as a new consumer trend and a market opportunity for the retail industry.

• Air cargo market boom projected for 2026; airlines' responses draw attention

  Semiconductors and advanced components required for large-scale AI data center construction demand fast delivery times, boosting air transport's share. E-commerce volumes are also expected to structurally support air demand, leading to projections of continued air cargo market prosperity in 2026. Airlines' responses to this situation are drawing attention. Generally, airlines are reducing long-term fixed-fare contracts and strengthening ‘yield-focused’ strategies through shorter, more flexible contracts. However, some airlines are instead increasing or strengthening long-term fixed-fare contracts, such as Block Space Agreements (BSA), making their future moves a point of interest.