US Logistics Update [Jan 17, 2026]-English

• The U.S. Department of Labor announced on the 13th that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.7% year-over-year in December. This matches November's rate (2.7%) and aligns with expert forecasts. The core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose 2.6% year-on-year, matching November's increase (2.6%) and falling below expert forecasts (2.8%). Meanwhile, the December unemployment rate fell to 4.4% from November (4.5%, revised down 0.1 percentage points from the initial 4.6%). Recently, the so-called “no hire, no fire” labor market pattern has persisted, while inflation remains near 3%, still above the Fed's 2% target. Many experts anticipate the Fed will keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at the upcoming January FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting. Many Fed members also support a rate freeze, taking the position that the Fed does not need to rush to change its interest rate policy.

• The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 14th that U.S. retail sales rose 0.6% month-on-month to $735.9 billion in November last year. This figure exceeded expert forecasts (+0.4%) and marked the largest increase since July. The monthly retail sales indicator is a key statistic that primarily tracks goods sales performance within overall consumption, serving as a gauge for changes in consumer spending, the backbone of the U.S. economy. In the U.S., major discount events run from ‘Black Friday’ (the day after Thanksgiving, the fourth Thursday in November) through ‘Cyber Monday’ (the following Monday), considered the peak annual spending period. 

•  The U.S. Supreme Court has yet to rule on the legality of President Trump's reciprocal tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) as of the 14th, drawing global attention. The lawsuit, filed by U.S. small businesses arguing that the authority to impose tariffs lies with Congress, not the President, saw the plaintiffs prevail in both the May trial court ruling and the August appeals court decision. Major investment banks like JPMorgan and UBS assess that the plaintiffs have a high probability of winning either partially or entirely. They note that “IEEPA is a sanctions-focused law that does not explicitly permit the President to impose tariffs, and tariffs are a matter of significant national economic importance requiring clear congressional authorization for the President to exercise such authority.” In U.S. betting markets, the probability of the Trump administration losing the case once soared to 77%.

Meanwhile, analysis indicates that the Trump administration's tariff policy is actually impacting

employment and investment sectors more than the initially feared inflation. Specifically, while price

indicators show relatively stable trends, the unemployment rate is surging, revealing that the side

effects of tariffs are manifesting first as employment slowdown rather than inflation. This trend is

clearly reflected in corporate decision-making processes. Companies are slowing new hiring,

reevaluating investment plans, and maintaining a cautious stance on business expansion, citing

rising supply chain costs and tariff uncertainty. For instance, multinational corporations like Procter

& Gamble are responding by cutting marketing, facility, and personnel expenditures rather than

immediately passing tariff burdens onto consumer prices. While this temporarily suppresses

inflation, it is assessed to generate hidden costs in the form of reduced employment and

investment. In essence, “the greatest cost created by tariffs is not visible inflation, but the

uncertainty paralyzing corporate decision-making.”

• North American Vessel Dwell Times         

• U.S. CBP Refunds to Go Fully Electronic Starting February Next Year…ACE Portal Account Required

  As the Supreme Court ruling on the Trump administration's tariff policy approaches, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has announced new guidelines to fully transition refund payments to electronic methods. Specifically, CBP stated that starting February 6, 2026, all refunds will be paid electronically (via ACH), and the issuance of paper checks will be discontinued as a rule. This measure is being implemented based on the ‘Electronic Refunds’ Interim Final Rule published in the Federal Register. This rule broadly applies not only to importers but also to brokers, filers, sureties, service providers, FTZ operators, carriers, and third parties registered on CBP Form 4811. CBP emphasizes that holding an ACE (Automated Commercial Environment) portal account is a prerequisite for receiving electronic refunds.

• FMC uncovers 2,629 cases of MSC's excessive reefer container charges... fines raised from $16 million to $22 million

  The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) has increased the civil penalty imposed on MSC in a case involving excessive detention/demurrage charges for non-operational refrigerated containers (NOR) from $16 million to over $22 million. The FMC determined that the overcharges constituted a frequent and persistent ‘practice’ rather than mere billing errors, partially overturning an Administrative Law Judge (ALJ) decision from February 2025. According to the FMC investigation, MSC applied high rates equivalent to operating reefer containers to some cargo for NOR in 2021, even though the tariff did not have separate criteria for such cases. MSC attributed this to a software error in its billing system that failed to distinguish between operating and non-operating reefers, stating it refunded customers approximately $2 million. However, the FMC found 2,629 instances of overcharging, recurring at an average of 10 cases per day for over eight months, concluding it was “difficult to view as an error” and increased the penalty level.

• STB Halts Union Pacific's $85 Billion Acquisition of Norfolk Southern... Citing “Incomplete Application”

  The U.S. Surface Transportation Board (STB) has rejected Union Pacific's ($85 billion) application to acquire Norfolk Southern (NS) at the filing stage, deeming it “incomplete.” The STB cited key deficiencies including: insufficient traffic (cargo volume) analysis reflecting only 2023 market share, failure to disclose the ‘Schedule 5.8’ document, and incorrect classification of the St. Louis Terminal Railroad (TRRA) transaction (‘significant’ instead of ‘minor’). UP must notify its intent to resubmit a revised application by February 17. However, even if a supplemental application is resubmitted, the final approval decision is likely to be delayed until the second half of 2027 or later, significantly postponing the merger beyond the original timeline.

• TPEB (Trans-Pacific Eastbound) Market Trends

  The Trans-Pacific Eastbound (TPEB) route maintained capacity at 80-85% of normal levels in January, remaining relatively ample relative to demand. Cargo volumes showed stable shipments. Capacity for the first half of February is expected to increase slightly to around 90%, but blank sailings for Lunar New Year adjustments are anticipated to continue through late February to the first week of March. Due to weak demand, many carriers withdrew or postponed their General Rate Increases (GRIs) on January 15th, with some suggesting the possibility of extending current rates through February. Peak Season Surcharges (PSS) are also being delayed until February or March, leading to industry assessments that ‘peak season pressure’ remains low even ahead of the Spring Festival.

• Market Trends for Asia-to-US Destination

  The Asia-to-US air cargo market is showing signs of a modest rebound after the holidays, with increased inquiries for e-commerce and general cargo bound for major US gateways (LA, NY). However, overall demand levels remain near their annual lows. Weak demand continues to pressure freight rates downward. This weakness is expected to gradually recover starting late this month, as demand ahead of the Chinese Lunar New Year holiday begins shipping.