US Logistics Update [Jan 10, 2026]-English

• The U.S. Supreme Court has postponed its ruling on the legality of the Trump administration's measures—imposing reciprocal tariffs and fentanyl tariffs globally under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) enacted in 1977—from January 8 to January 14. During oral arguments last November, the justices questioned the administration's “import restriction” argument, focusing on how tariffs could effectively function as a cost (tax) passed on to U.S. consumers and the complexity of refunds. Their questioning appeared critical of the tariff imposition, leading markets to weigh the possibility of an administration defeat. Should the Supreme Court rule the Trump administration's IEEPA tariffs unlawful, CBP would likely immediately cease tariff collection and initiate a large-scale refund process. In this scenario, the Trump administration is expected to likely reintroduce tariffs or impose new ones using other legal avenues, such as Sections 301, 232, 122, and 338 of the Trade Act. If the Supreme Court upholds the tariffs, collection would continue, but the case would be remanded to a lower court for further proceedings. The possibility of a partial remedy, where only some parts are deemed constitutional/unlawful, is also being discussed. Meanwhile, U.S. Treasury Bessent countered, “If refunds happen, it's just a feast for corporations,” asking, “Will Costco, which sued the U.S. government, return that money to its customers?” 

• President Trump declared that the only thing that could limit his authority as commander in chief was “my morality,” effectively stating that he need not adhere to existing legal norms such as international law or congressional notification procedures when exercising his command over the U.S. military, according to a New York Times (NYT) report. In a two-hour interview published by the NYT on the 8th, President Trump responded to the question, “Are there limits to the influence a president has over the world?” by stating, “There is one. It is my own morality, my own mind,” calling this “the only thing that can stop me.” He added, "International law is not necessary. I'm not trying to hurt people.“ When repeatedly asked whether his administration must comply with international law, he answered ”Yes,“ but emphasized that ”I make the final decision on whether international law can constrain the United States." The NYT assessed this as “the most explicit expression of President Trump's worldview,” noting, “He has concluded that as president, he can use military, economic, and political means without limit to solidify American hegemony.”

• North American Vessel Dwell Times         

• The 2026 Pacific trade lane faces its first major test with demand before China's Spring Festival

  JOC reports that whether a surge in U.S. imports occurs before Chinese factories halt operations in mid-February for the Lunar New Year will be the first major test for 2026 Trans-Pacific trade. Whether this seasonal rush actually materializes and how carriers adjust supply accordingly will provide key clues for the industry to gauge demand trends in the first half of the year. This is because it reflects inventory replenishment for post-holiday sales and spring merchandise demand. Historically, the surge in shipments before the significant slowdown in Chinese production ahead of the Spring Festival has driven up short-term spot rates, helping carriers secure a more favorable position when negotiating S/C service contracts for the Pacific route.  The NRF (National Retail Federation) reported January cargo volume at major U.S. ports at 2.11 million TEUs (+6.0% month-on-month, but -5.3% year-on-year) via its ‘Global Port Tracker’. It noted that after a “brief bump” before Asian factory shutdowns, the typical post-holiday slow season is likely to follow. However, freight rates are already reacting proactively. According to Drewry data, as of January 8th, rates surged to $3,132/40ft (+26%) for Shanghai→LA and $3,957/40ft (+20%) for Shanghai→NY. Ultimately, for the Pacific routes in January-February, the tug-of-war between a pre-Lunar New Year short-term rebound and structural demand slowdown is expected to make short-term spot rate volatility and carriers' supply adjustments key variables in first-half contract and rate negotiations.

• Volga-Dnepr ownership structure ‘change’... Return of superjumbo freighter AN-124 remains distant

  Russia's super-heavy cargo carrier Volga-Dnepr Group has been acquired by newly established Evraz Avia Service (EAS), owned by former Russian aviation executive Evgeny Solodilin. This has drawn attention to the company's revival and the potential market return of the super-heavy AN-124 cargo aircraft. EAS has secured 100% stakes in AirBridgeCargo and Volga-Dnepr-Moscow, along with a 67% stake in Atran. However, share pledges remain in place with the former owners, and the existing management team has stayed on, leading to assessments that this falls short of a “complete restructuring.” What matters more to the market than ‘ownership’ is the potential for supply recovery. Due to sanctions, seizures, and operational suspensions, only 3 out of 11 An-124s are currently operational, with 4 reportedly seized overseas. AirBridgeCargo's 14 Boeing freighters are also in storage, and Atran has scaled back to operating only two An-12s. In any case, despite EAS's acquisition of the Volga-Dnepr Group, the ‘supply scarcity’ in super-heavy air cargo transport is expected to persist.