US Logistics Update [Feb 21, 2026]-English

On the 20th, as the world plunged into chaos following the U.S. Supreme Court's ruling that the Trump administration's tariffs were illegal, President Trump immediately imposed a 10% tariff (later changed to 15%) based on Section 122, as expected. The measures President Trump can take are summarized below in four points, and attention is focused on what methods he might employ beyond Section 122 going forward.

① Section 122

•    Aims to address a “serious international balance of payments crisis” caused by excessive

imports. Allows for tariffs up to 15% or import quotas. No congressional approval required.

•    Drawbacks: Automatically expires after 150 days; extension may violate the law's intent. Never

used in earnest historically.

② Section 338

•    Allows tariffs of up to 50% on countries implementing discriminatory trade policies against the

U.S. Though largely obsolete, theoretically usable.

③ Section 301

•    Tariffs imposed following investigations into unfair trade practices. Served as the basis for large-

scale tariffs on China during Trump's first term.

④ Section 232 (National Security)

•    Allows tariffs imposed under the pretext of national security. Currently used for steel and

aluminum tariffs.

Of course, the ‘item-specific tariffs’ on automobiles, steel, and other goods remain valid under this ruling. However, there are concerns that uncertainty has arisen regarding the large-scale investment attraction and domestic job creation that President Trump has touted as achievements of his tariff policy. In the U.S., setting aside debates over the effectiveness and legitimacy of reciprocal tariffs, distrust is rampant regarding a tariff policy that is unilateral and even inconsistent. In the “tariff war” waged against China, there have been repeated suspensions and reversals based on circumstances. The administration has applied elastic standards to different countries, and when concerns poured in about rising prices for imported daily necessities, it lowered tariffs on some items, demonstrating erratic behavior. The Supreme Court ruling further fuels this, likely intensifying opposition among anti-Trump voters and spreading disappointment even among his supporters. Despite this, President Trump expressed confidence, stating, “The entire Supreme Court that made this terrible ruling, and Congress, recognize that there are stronger tools, methods, laws, and authorities than IEEPA tariffs.” Attention is focused on President Trump's next moves ahead of the November midterm elections, which hold his political fate. 

Meanwhile, as U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) must refund hundreds of billions of dollars in tariffs paid by U.S. importers over the past nine months, the tariff refund process has emerged as a key issue. However, the Supreme Court did not provide specific guidance on the refund method. The Court of International Trade (CIT) is expected to make the final determination on the refund procedure. Therefore, at present, importers cannot take immediate reporting actions or file refund claims. CBP has also not yet announced “Next Steps” or specific implementation guidelines. However, customs brokers have been conducting comprehensive audits of all customs entries declared after April 2025 and have been preparing to respond immediately once the refund process begins. Once the refund process is finalized, refunds are expected to proceed through procedures such as “Protest” or “Post-Summary Correction (PSC)”. To ensure smooth refund processing, importers should verify that their ACH (electronic refund) information is up-to-date within the ACE Portal, considering that CBP has discontinued paper check issuance and transitioned to electronic refunds (ACH).

(Visit https://www.cbp.gov/trade/automated/ach/refund to verify and update ACH information)

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University economists announced on the 12th that 90% of the tariff burden imposed by the Trump administration through November last year was passed on to U.S. companies and consumers. This result matches the findings released by Germany's Kiel Institute last January. The study's significance is heightened as it comes from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York and Columbia University. When goods are imported into the U.S. from abroad, the importer (a U.S. company) must first pay the tariff to the U.S. government. The importer then passes on this cost to others by either raising the price charged to customers or negotiating lower prices with suppliers. President Trump has repeatedly claimed that foreign exporters would bear the tariff costs. According to him, foreign exporters would lower supply prices to maintain access to the vast U.S. market, meaning exporters would ultimately shoulder the tariff burden while U.S. importers would be compensated. However, researchers announced findings on the ‘incidence’ of new import taxes—revealing who actually pays them—that directly contradicted President Trump's claims.

North American Vessel Dwell Times  

Delays in 2026–27 Service Contract Negotiations

On the Trans-Pacific route, shipping lines and U.S. importers (including retailers) are mutually delaying the conclusion of annual service contracts for the 2026–27 season. Shippers are delaying contracts because spot rates have continued to fall over recent weeks. Retailers believe “waiting just a little longer will bring rates down further,” adopting a strategy to delay annual contract signing as long as possible. Carriers (shipping lines) believe “the current rate decline is temporary and the market will strengthen again soon,” and thus do not want early contracts. In other words, both sides think ‘signing now would be a loss,’ causing negotiations to proceed very slowly. The current market situation is weak demand and ample supply (vessel capacity) → pressure on spot rates to fall. Expectations that market rates will fall further (shippers) clash with carriers' hopes for a market rebound, causing 2026–27 service contract negotiations for the Pacific route to stall as each side watches the other. Consequently, the spot market share is expected to expand for the time being. Long-term, there is a risk that annual contract rate levels will decline further.

U.S. Department of Transportation (DOT) Strengthens Regulations on Issuing Commercial Driver's Licenses (CDL) to Nonresident Foreign Nationals

U.S. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy has announced a final rule to prevent nonresident (ineligible) foreign nationals from obtaining commercial driver's licenses (CDLs) for operating large trucks and buses in the United States. and buses in the U.S. is scheduled to take effect on the 16th of next month. Meanwhile, several state governments, including New York, have suspended the issuance and renewal of nonresident commercial driver's licenses (CDLs) for foreign nationals, raising concerns about disruptions not only in truck operations but also in public transportation like buses and school bus services. Last September, the federal Department of Transportation significantly restricted nonresident CDL eligibility to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders through an emergency rule change. With the federal government pressuring states using subsidies as leverage, many states have moved to implement the rule early. The Federal Motor Carrier Safety Administration (FMCSA), a commercial vehicle oversight agency under the DOT, estimates that over 90% of the approximately 194,000 existing non-resident CDL drivers will exit the market within about five years due to this rule. The resulting driver shortage and reduced truck supply are likely to significantly increase pressure for higher freight rates.

Amazon Finally Overtakes Walmart to Become World's Top-Selling Company

Bloomberg reports that Amazon recorded total sales of $716.9 billion in 2025, surpassing Walmart's $713.2 billion to become the world's top-selling company. This marks the end of Walmart's decade-long reign at the top. Amazon's surge is attributed primarily to the rapid growth of its cloud business, AWS, along with expanding demand for AI and data centers. Analysts note that its online-centric business structure has secured a structural advantage over Walmart, which relies heavily on brick-and-mortar stores. The market views Amazon's rise to the top as the moment when the generational shift from offline to online was officially “complete.”

Package Market Realignment: FedEx's Strategic Shift, UPS's Amazon Reduction, USPS's Expanded Role

At its 2026 Investor Day last week, FedEx announced it would prioritize premium B2B and high-value e-commerce in its future strategy, stating it would reorganize its network around high-quality services rather than low-cost competition. FedEx identified key target industries requiring precision and reliability—such as healthcare, automotive, aerospace, and data centers—to achieve this goal. Earlier, UPS disclosed plans to reduce its Amazon volume by more than half by 2026. Amazon shipments accounted for 20-25% of UPS's total volume but were reportedly low-margin. UPS is consequently pursuing a shift to a higher-margin structure by closing over 90 facilities, implementing large-scale workforce reductions, and restructuring its network. It is also strengthening its Ground Saver program with the USPS, transferring some low-margin shipments to the USPS. Due to UPS and FedEx's strategic shifts, the USPS is assuming a larger role in last-mile delivery, expanding its presence. Amazon is also expanding its own delivery network (AMZN) to gradually reduce its reliance on external carriers. Coupled with the strengthening of its internal delivery network and the reduced dependence of UPS and FedEx on Amazon, a structure is forming where Amazon handles more deliveries itself.