US Logistics Update [Feb 14, 2026]-English

• The U.S. Department of Labor announced that the January Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% year-over-year and 0.2% month-over-month, remaining unexpectedly low despite concerns about inflation stemming from President Trump's tariff policies. Core CPI, excluding volatile energy and food prices, rose 2.5%, marking the lowest increase in 4 years and 10 months since March 2021. It rose 0.3% month-over-month. U.S. consumer price inflation surged to over 9% in June 2022 but slowed to 2.3% by April last year due to the Federal Reserve's aggressive tightening monetary policy. However, concerns about rising inflation have significantly heightened due to the Trump administration's tariff policies. However, the deceleration trend has continued into the new year of 2026, easing market concerns about inflation and increasing expectations that the Fed may begin cutting interest rates.

  Meanwhile, the U.S. Department of Labor announced that nonfarm payrolls increased by 130,000 in

January, more than double December's 55,000 gain, while the unemployment rate fell 1 percentage

point month-over-month to 4.3%. As the unemployment rate showed an unexpectedly strong

improvement, market expectations for a benchmark interest rate freeze surged significantly (from

25% to 40%). However, when the subsequently released January Consumer Price Index (CPI) came

in lower than anticipated, expectations for a benchmark rate cut actually grew.

• The Wall Street Journal reports that the share of income going to labor in the U.S. economy has been steadily declining, while the share going to capital—including corporations and shareholders—has been expanding. The share of labor income in total U.S. income fell from 58% in 1980 to 51.4% in the third quarter of 2025. However, corporate profits as a percentage of GDP rose from 7% to 11.7% over the same period, indicating a significant expansion in the share of capital income. According to the WSJ, leading U.S. tech companies generate higher corporate value and profits with far fewer employees than large corporations of the past. For example, Nvidia, the most valuable U.S. company as of 2026, is about 20 times larger than IBM was in 1985 in terms of value and five times larger in terms of profitability, yet employs only about one-tenth as many people as IBM did at that time. Furthermore, analysis shows that while real average hourly wages increased by only 3% since 2019, corporate profits surged by 43% over the same period. Experts point out that economic rewards and profits are increasingly concentrated toward capital—corporations, shareholders, and executives—rather than labor. They anticipate that the spread of artificial intelligence (AI) technology will accelerate this trend, projecting that AI will deepen structural changes in the labor market.

• North American Vessel Dwell Times         

• U.S. Senate Introduces Bill to Repeal ‘First Sale Rule’... Import Industry Faces Increased Tariff Burden

  The U.S. Senate has introduced a new bill that could significantly alter import customs clearance practices, drawing considerable industry attention. Under current U.S. customs law, when identical goods are imported through multiple transaction stages, tariffs can be assessed based on the first sale price. For example, if the price at which goods were sold from the factory to an intermediary was lower than the final price paid by the importer, the importer could calculate tariffs using the lower first sale price to reduce costs. This rule has been widely used in industries with high global sourcing, such as apparel, general merchandise, and electronics, playing a crucial role in maintaining the cost competitiveness of small and medium-sized importers. The proposed ‘Last Sale Valuation Act’ mandates that the customs valuation basis for imported goods be unified to the last transaction price immediately before import (Last Sale), overturning the existing First Sale Rule. If enacted, importers would calculate duties based on the final purchase price in the supply chain, implying higher taxable values compared to the current system and inevitably increasing the customs duty burden. The bill is still at the proposal stage, and its passage and implementation timeline remain uncertain.

• Maersk–Hapag Gemini Achieves Higher Punctuality Than Individual Services

  The ‘Gemini Cooperation’ service jointly operated by Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd has recorded significantly higher punctuality than the industry average in 2025. According to market research firm Xeneta, Gemini's on-time arrival rate stands at 81%, demonstrating a level far superior to the services operated individually by the two carriers. Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd's 2025 on-time performance improved substantially compared to the previous year (37% and 20%, respectively), reaching 56% and 52% respectively. The average delay days were recorded as 2 days for Maersk and 3 days for Hapag-Lloyd.  Conversely, the average delay for the 12 global carriers was 4.5 days, indicating widening disparities between carriers. COSCO performed relatively well with delays of about 3.5 days, while HMM ranked near the bottom with 8.5 days. MSC recorded low on-time performance at 25% and average delays of about 5 days, but Zim rose to 36%, entering the top tier. The Ocean Alliance and Premier Alliance both saw slight year-on-year improvements in overall on-time performance, each at 26%. Xeneta emphasized, “When selecting services, shippers should prioritize verifying the actual operating carrier over the alliance name.”

• Trump Administration Announces Roadmap to Rebuild U.S. Shipping and Shipbuilding Industries

  The Trump administration unveiled its ‘Maritime Action Plan’ to restore the competitiveness of the U.S. shipping and shipbuilding industries. The core strategy involves imposing tonnage-based infrastructure and security fees on foreign-built vessels to secure long-term funding. Scenarios suggest this approach could establish a Maritime Security Trust Fund (MSTF) ranging from a minimum of $66 billion to a maximum of $1.5 trillion over ten years, depending on the fee level. The plan includes modernizing domestic shipyard facilities, expanding large vessel construction capacity, and establishing a Strategic Commercial Fleet (SCF) composed of U.S.-built and U.S.-flagged merchant ships. It also proposes a separate 0.125% Land Port Maintenance Tax on imports entering via land borders to fund improvements to land logistics infrastructure. This plan is expected to be submitted to Congress shortly for the legislative process.

• U.S. Import Decline Forecast for First Half of 2026

  The Global Port Tracker, a joint market research report recently released by the National Retail Federation (NRF) and Hackett Associates, forecasts a year-over-year decline in U.S.-bound retail container imports for the first half of 2026. (See below for detailed monthly volume projections)

•    January, at 2.11 million TEU, down 5.2% annually

•    February, at 1.97 million TEU, down 3.1% annually

•    March, at 1.89 million TEU, down 12% annually

•    April, at 2.05 million TEU, down 7.1% annually

•    May, at 2.13 million TEU, up 9.3%, which would mark the first annual gain since August 2025

•    June, at 2.12 million TEU, up 8% annually

The first half of the year is projected to see a total cargo volume of 12.27 million TEU (-2%), a

decrease of 2.3% compared to the previous year. The report emphasizes that tariff uncertainty is

directly impacting import flows and underscores the need for clear and predictable trade policies.

The U.S. Supreme Court is currently awaiting a ruling on the legality of IEEPA tariffs. Depending on

the outcome, the White House may attempt alternative tariff measures, prolonging the uncertainty.

• FedEx: Visibility Alone Is Insufficient; AI and Analytics-Based Logistics Intelligence Is the Competitive Edge

  According to FedEx's recently released report, “Future of Logistics Intelligence Report,” only 18% of companies stated that their internal teams ‘always’ intervene to minimize the impact when delivery delays occur. This highlights that while many companies can “see” the delay itself (visibility/tracking), they lack the capability to determine what action to take next and actually intervene before the delay escalates. The report emphasizes that the recognition is spreading that simple visibility alone is insufficient for competitiveness, noting that 97% of leaders stated “visibility alone is no longer enough.” FedEx proposes “logistics intelligence (predictive, decision-making, and execution capabilities)” as the solution, explaining that this requires analytics, AI, and close partnerships with carriers.

• U.S. to Apply Duty-Free Status to Imported Clothing from Bangladesh

  The U.S. announced it will apply duty-free status to clothing products imported from Bangladesh. The U.S. exports fabric made at its own farms or factories to labor-cheap Bangladesh, then imports the finished garments processed locally. This duty-free measure is expected to boost air cargo demand.

• USPS posts $1.3 billion Q1 loss... Express demand linked to air freight also shakes as parcel volumes plummet

  The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) reported a net loss of $1.3 billion for the first quarter of fiscal year 2026 (fiscal year basis), shifting from a $144 million profit in the same period last year. Revenue for the same period decreased by 1.2% to $22.2 billion. USPS cited volume declines in First-Class Mail, Marketing Mail, and Shipping & Packages as the primary reasons for the poor performance. While rate increases partially offset the impact, they were insufficient to reverse the overall decline in volume. By segment, First-Class Mail revenue increased 1.0%, but volume decreased 6.1%. Marketing Mail saw a significant decline with revenue down 2.7% and volume down 10.9%. Shipping & Packages experienced revenue down 0.2% and volume down 12.1%, highlighting the package segment's weakness. USPS attributes the core factors behind the package segment's weakness to intensifying competition and major customers expanding their own delivery networks (insourcing). Industry analysts note that in a structure where maintaining market share directly impacts revenue and volume, continued delivery insourcing by large shippers could further weaken the revenue base. These results also offer indirect implications for the air cargo market. Since USPS's premium and express services typically rely heavily on time competitiveness, they have a high degree of air cargo linkage. Indeed, within USPS's internal service portfolio, the slump in Priority services is particularly evident. Conversely, the ground-based Ground Advantage service saw a 17.5% volume increase despite a 17% revenue decline. Some experts point to USPS's service issues, noting that high-value, urgent shipments increasingly go to UPS and FedEx, while low-value, non-urgent shipments use USPS more frequently. They cite USPS's service competitiveness as the root cause of its poor performance. USPS acknowledges structural cost burdens and limitations in its business model but proposes solutions like expanding new businesses using its last-mile network and improving operational efficiency. Meanwhile, as part of its last-mile expansion strategy, USPS launched a bidding platform to open 18,000 DDU (Delivery Point) locations. This aims to broaden its last-mile access model, previously focused on large customers, enabling small and medium-sized shippers to combine volume, price, and drop-off time conditions to utilize the USPS network for same-day or next-day delivery.