US Logistics Update [Dec 6, 2025]-English

• Despite concerns from the retail industry that consumption would slow due to the Trump administration's tariff policies, high inflation, and economic uncertainty, Adobe's analysis shows that total sales for the entire Cyber Week period, including Black Friday, reached a record $44.2 billion this year, a 7.7% increase from the previous year. The National Retail Federation (NRF) had predicted holiday season sales would reach $1.02 trillion, a 3.7% to 4.2% increase over last year, but the actual results significantly exceeded these expectations. Meanwhile, the biggest change this Cyber Week was the explosive surge in AI-driven shopping traffic, which increased by 670%. Video-centric platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and YouTube also played a decisive role in boosting sales. Mobile payments exceeded 60% of transactions, cementing mobile as the most common shopping channel. Offline store sales also increased year-over-year. For example, Macy's, a major offline department store, announced its sales this year would reach $21.1 billion, the highest level in the past three years. However, some negative analysis suggests the increase in Black Friday and Cyber Monday sales was due to average 7% higher product prices caused by tariffs, meaning people actually reduced the number of items they purchased. Furthermore, according to a survey conducted by Flexport on November 20th, approximately 83% of companies responded that they still have sufficient inventory (see graph below). Consequently, a recovery in cargo demand is expected to be difficult for the time being.

• The OECD has revised its forecast for U.S. economic growth upward to 2% this year, higher than its initial projection, and to 1.7% next year, up from its previous estimates of 1.8% and 1.5%. U.S. inflation is projected to remain at 3% next year due to high tariffs, while government debt is expected to reach 128.4% of total GDP by 2027. Meanwhile, after President Trump announced U.S. tariffs in April, economists initially anticipated a decline in U.S. jobs and exports. However, they now predict U.S. economic growth. The primary factor is that the U.S. government has offset the tariff costs by making massive investments in artificial intelligence. Indeed, this year's capital expenditures by Amazon, Google, Meta, and Microsoft total approximately $400 billion, primarily focused on AI investments. However, despite this investment, economists analyze that the benefits returned by AI are not evenly distributed, meaning some countries could suffer greater pain. In other words, it primarily benefits only a few nations, excluding major AI investment powerhouses like the US and China. For example, Taiwan, a hub for AI chip manufacturing, has seen its GDP growth forecast for this year revised upward from 4.4% in the previous quarter to 7%.  

• U.S. companies cut the most jobs in November since early 2023, heightening concerns that labor market weakness is becoming pronounced. According to payroll services provider ADP, which released its report on December 3rd, 32,000 jobs were lost in November. This stands in stark contrast to the 10,000 job gains forecasted by experts. With the November labor report delayed due to the government shutdown, this ADP report is expected to significantly influence the Fed's interest rate decision ahead of its policy announcement next week.

• “The era of easy money is gone, and competition is intensifying,” the Wall Street Journal assessed the reality global brands now face in the Chinese market. The Chinese market, with its 1.4 billion people, was a cash cow for global brands. However, as China's economic growth slows, Chinese consumers are spending less than before, and the rise of local companies is forcing global brands into fierce competition. Tensions between the U.S. and China are also posing challenges for Western companies. The Wall Street Journal reported on the 29th that for years, as China’s economy rapidly expanded and millions entered the middle and upper classes, the country had been a “cash cow” for companies like LVMH (the parent company of Louis Vuitton), Starbucks, Nike, Apple, Tesla, and Volkswagen. However, it noted that now local Chinese competitors are surpassing Western brands across many industries.

• North American Vessel Dwell Times            

• Expectations for a U.S. Nuclear Power Renaissance Explode

  President Trump signed the “Genesis Mission” executive order on the 24th, dubbed the “AI Manhattan Project.” President Trump declared he would “go all in” on AI industry investment, stating, “To achieve a dramatic acceleration in AI development and utilization, we will combine the efforts of leading American companies, world-renowned universities, existing infrastructure research, data repositories, production facilities, and national security facilities, including national laboratories, with the outstanding talents of American scientists.” To power this critical growth, the plan includes investing at least $92 billion to build new nuclear power plants, expanding nuclear generation capacity from the current 100GW to 400GW by 2050. Although the U.S. is the pioneer of nuclear power, only two large reactors have been built in the past 40 years: the Vogtle reactors in Georgia. U.S. Commerce Secretary Howard Luttnick stated on the 2nd that the $750 billion investment Korea and Japan have committed to the U.S. will be prioritized for nuclear power investment. 

• Korean Cosmetics Sales Surge in the U.S.

  CNBC reported on the 27th that Korean cosmetics are rapidly penetrating mainstream U.S. retailers' shelves, fueled by word-of-mouth buzz on social media platforms like TikTok. According to Nielsen IQ analysis cited by CNBC, K-beauty sales are projected to reach $2 billion this year, a 37% surge from last year. Driven by the high popularity of Korean cosmetics, retailers like ULTA and Sephora are operating dedicated K-beauty sections. Major supermarkets such as Walmart and Costco are also expanding their shelves with product lines like essences, serums, and mask packs, responding to growing consumer demand for Korean cosmetics. While there was a ‘first wave’ of K-beauty products entering the US market in the 2010s, sales channels were then limited to niche markets like small retailers or Amazon sellers, and marketing focused on skin-brightening products. The recent ‘second wave’, however, is growing much faster and features a broader product range including color cosmetics, hair/scalp care, body care, and skincare devices, while also expanding its target customer base. CNBC reports.

• Peak Season Persists for Asia-to-North America Market

  The Asia-to-North America air cargo market continues to see high freight rates due to strong demand coupled with supply constraints. Supply shortages are intensifying across major regions including China, Southeast Asia, South Korea, and Taiwan, particularly for e-commerce and high-tech cargo. Industry analysts predict this peak season phenomenon will persist through late December, sustaining strong freight rates. Consequently, they recommend establishing flexible shipping strategies: booking at least 1-2 weeks in advance, considering premium services for urgent shipments, and utilizing alternative routes to reduce costs.