US Logistics Update [Dec 27, 2025]-English

• The U.S. Department of Commerce announced on the 23rd that the U.S. third-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) growth rate recorded 4.3% (annualized rate compared to the previous quarter - a figure converted from quarter-over-quarter growth to an annual growth rate). This significantly exceeded the second quarter's 3.8% and the forecast of 3.2%, marking the highest level in two years since the third quarter of 2023 (4.7%). Contrary to concerns that tariffs and a cooling job market could slow the economy, the data confirmed sustained strong growth into the third quarter, dampening expectations for further interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve (Fed) next year. The CME Group's FedWatch Tool now projects a 54% probability that the Fed will keep its benchmark rate unchanged at the current 3.50-3.75% range through March next year, up from 47% before the GDP release. While consumer spending, accounting for 70% of the economy (+3.5%, contributing 2.39 percentage points to the 4.3% GDP growth rate), was the primary driver of this record growth, Bloomberg noted that the consumption gap between income groups has widened further. The Wall Street Journal also pointed out pointed to the polarization of consumption, stating, “Most of the growth momentum is coming from the top 20% of wealthy households.”

Meanwhile, the Consumer Confidence Index, which quantifies U.S. consumers' perceptions of the

economic situation and outlook, continued its downward trend in December. According to the

Conference Board, the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index for December stood at 89.1 (base

1985=100), a 3.8-point decline from the previous month. The Dow Jones forecast (91.0) also fell

below 100. Notably, the Present Situation Index, reflecting current business and labor market

conditions, plunged 9.5 points to 116.8 compared to the previous month, marking its lowest level

since February 2021 during the pandemic. The expectations index, reflecting consumers' outlook

for the near future, was 70.7, similar to the previous month. An expectations index below 80 is

generally seen as signaling an impending recession. The expectations index has now been below

80 for 11 consecutive months through December.

• CNBC reports that approximately 55,000 jobs were lost in the U.S. this year due to workforce reductions caused by artificial intelligence (AI). According to a survey by consulting firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, approximately 1.17 million jobs were lost in the U.S. from January to November this year, with AI cited as the reason in 54,694 of those cases, the report stated on the 21st. CNBC projected that as cost pressures intensify due to inflation and tariffs, companies increasingly replacing human labor with AI to reduce labor costs will continue to rise and accelerate further.

• 2026–27 maritime contracts: Service issues take center stage

  JOC reports that service reliability, rather than freight rates, will emerge as the key issue in 2026–27 maritime transport contract negotiations. Amid global supply surpluses and low import growth forecasts, shippers are strongly demanding the following in contracts with carriers: ▲schedule reliability ▲Flexibility in handling allocated volumes ▲Securing new port capacity. The report highlights that the Minimum Quantity Commitment (MQC) clause has become a key negotiation point to minimize logistics disruptions during both peak and off-peak seasons. Industry insiders pointed out that “an increase in blank sailings or route suspensions risks failing to secure contractually guaranteed volumes,” emphasizing that securing supply chain predictability is the key to this year's negotiations. Meanwhile, the risk of spot rates falling below contract rates is growing due to forecasts of oversupply, including new vessel deliveries in 2026 and the potential resumption of Suez Canal operations. This raises the possibility of shippers shifting to forwarders' Freight All Kinds (FAK) rates.

• Trump Administration Abruptly Halts East Coast Offshore Wind Projects Citing ‘National Security Risk’

  The U.S. Department of the Interior abruptly halted leases for five major offshore wind projects (Vineyard Wind 1, Revolution Wind, Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind, Sunrise Wind, Empire Wind 1) located along the East Coast, citing ‘national security risks’. This is expected to significantly impact the growing demand for heavy cargo (Project Cargo) shipments at major ports like the Port of Virginia. The Port of Virginia, in particular, had seen a surge in demand for transporting large turbine blades due to the CVOW (Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind) project. This suspension is expected to inevitably disrupt logistics flows. The Department of the Interior stated in a release that “large offshore wind farms located near densely populated areas pose risks of radar interference and jamming.” However, the industry views this as aligning with President Trump's longstanding energy policy stance, which opposes wind power and supports oil and gas pipeline construction.

• Korea Invests $3 Billion to Expand Overseas Logistics and Terminal Network

  The Korean government has announced a $3 billion investment plan to expand its overseas logistics and terminal network, drawing industry attention. The Ministry of Oceans and Fisheries unveiled three major plans: ▲Expanding overseas logistics facilities from 9 to 40 locations ▲Investing in 10 overseas port terminals ▲Fostering three major global logistics companies by 2030. The investment targets warehouses and container yards in 11 major trading nations including the US, Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, Indonesia, Thailand, Germany, and Poland. The investment will be led by the government-affiliated Korea Ocean Business Corporation (KOBC), with plans to establish an overseas terminal investment group and a $670 million container terminal fund. Industry experts assess this investment as a long-term strategy to secure leadership in the global supply chain, not merely infrastructure expansion. Meanwhile, it is known that among the overseas logistics centers currently operated by major Korean companies, only 9% are self-owned facilities, and only seven companies—HMM, CJ Logistics, Lotte Global Logistics, etc.—hold stakes in overseas container terminals.

• Heavy Rain in West, Blizzard in East... U.S. Logistics Disruptions Warned

  Extreme weather across the U.S. is threatening logistics disruptions. In California, heavy rain since Christmas Eve has continued for three days, causing flooding, power outages, and road submersion. Thousands of power outages and hundreds of traffic accidents have been reported in LA. The New York area in the East has seen 20-30cm of heavy snowfall, expected to severely disrupt air and road transport. Meanwhile, the South Central region, including the Texas-Tennessee Valley, is experiencing unusually warm conditions, necessitating preparedness for logistics disruptions due to unstable weather. The western region is entering its full rainy season, increasing the risk of port and road transport delays. The eastern region is starting its winter storm season, with disruptions expected in air, rail, and truck transport. Experts caution that “this is a period of recurring supply chain instability due to worsening weather” and urge industry professionals to take preemptive action.

• CBP·FDA customs regulations tighten… Packages discarded or delayed in succession

  The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) reported on the 26th that since the start of the Trump administration's second term, the introduction of sweeping new tariffs has made U.S. customs procedures more stringent, leading to a series of incidents involving damaged, discarded, or delayed packages. Goods imported into the U.S. must undergo inspection by Customs and Border Protection (CBP) and the Food and Drug Administration (FDA). Due to the Trump administration's tariffs, fees, and stricter country-of-origin rules, documentation requirements have become more stringent, leading to increased instances of goods being damaged, returned, or destroyed. A prime example cited is Texas resident Matthew Gallo, who had $1,600 worth of auto parts ordered from the UK destroyed by CBP due to unclear country of origin. Furthermore, the Trump administration's full abolition of the De minimis exemption (duty-free for small parcels under $800) effective August 29 has amplified the damage. For instance, Swedish entrepreneur Annie Sernea suffered a $6,000 loss due to shipping delays and disposal, while Amin Shah from Indonesia also experienced his wooden frame samples being held up at customs for months. For fiscal year 2025, CBP generated $33 billion in revenue from customs document reviews alone, a 50-fold increase from the previous year. The FDA blocked the import of 32,900 items, a 60% increase year-over-year. New tariffs and stringent customs clearance procedures are causing a sharp rise in logistics delays and disposal risks, demanding heightened caution from industry professionals.