US Logistics Update [Dec 13, 2025]-English

The Federal Reserve (Fed) cut its benchmark interest rate by 0.25 percentage points on the 10th, lowering it from the previous range of 3.75–4.00% to 3.50–3.75%. This marks the third rate cut this year and the third consecutive reduction. Meanwhile, the Fed projected the median expected federal funds rate at the end of next year to be 3.4%, unchanged from its September forecast. Considering this year-end projection and the current rate, one more 0.25 percentage point cut next year appears possible. However, significant disagreement among FOMC members makes predicting whether and by how much rates will be cut next year difficult. Regarding future benchmark rate decisions, the Fed used the phrasing “in considering the extent and timing of further adjustments.” Experts observe that the terms “extent and timing” were not used in October, suggesting the Fed may delay or even halt future rate cuts. Following the Fed's rate cut, the Dow and S&P 500 indices closed at 48,704.01 and 6,901.00 respectively on the 11th, setting new all-time highs.

The U.S. trade deficit fell to its lowest level since March 2020 in September this year, the U.S. Commerce Department announced on the 10th. According to the data, the goods and services trade deficit recorded $52.8 billion, a decrease of about 11% from the previous month. This figure is significantly below the $63.1 billion forecast by experts. U.S. exports rose 3%, driven by strong increases in gold and pharmaceutical exports, marking the second-highest growth rate on record.

The Wall Street Journal reports that U.S. manufacturers are cutting back on orders for parts and raw materials due to uncertainty surrounding President Trump's tariffs ahead of the Supreme Court's tariff ruling. The U.S. purchasing activity index for November also showed its lowest reading since May. As the Supreme Court prepares to rule on the constitutionality of President Trump's tariff policy, Supreme Court justices expressed negative views on tariffs in November. It is observed that U.S. companies are anticipating changes in U.S. tariff policy ahead of the Supreme Court ruling.

U.S. Ports Projected to See ‘2026 Cargo Volume Decline’ Amid Tariff Uncertainty... Rebound Expected After 2027
S&P Global forecasts that while the U.S. economy (growth and employment) will remain relatively stable, tariff policy uncertainty will cause U.S. port container cargo volume to decline by 2% in 2026. It analyzed that tariffs on China and major trading partners remain high, potentially prolonging shippers' conservative shipping stance. However, it projected that cargo volumes could reignite if the Supreme Court rules against tariffs, anticipating a rebound with a 6% increase in 2027. Meanwhile, the National Retail Federation (NRF) warned that first-quarter 2026 cargo volumes could see double-digit declines year-over-year, while Moody's also noted that 2026 import volumes could remain flat to decline by up to 2%. Port operators across the U.S. are also setting conservative budgets for next year: The Port Authority of New York and New Jersey projects 8.5 million TEUs for 2026 (a 2% decrease compared to 2024), while the Port of Houston forecasts 4.4 million TEUs for 2026 (a 4.7% increase, though slower than the 7% average growth over the past decade).

COSCO places record-breaking $7 billion order for 87 vessels amid container ship oversupply concerns
China's COSCO Shipping Group announced a newbuilding contract worth approximately $7 billion for 87 vessels (including container ships and multipurpose vessels) with China State Shipbuilding Corporation (CSSC), causing significant market ripples. According to Sea-web, COSCO Shipping Holdings currently operates a fleet of 3.45 million TEU (ranking 4th globally). Including the additional 722,000 TEU ordered, its market presence is poised to grow significantly. Furthermore, this large-scale order comes at a time when “global container ship order backlog stands at 10.4 million TEU, representing about 32% of existing fleet capacity,” reigniting debate over the risk of oversupply.

CargoWise ‘Value Pack’ billing transition reignites debate over forwarder cost burdens and market dominance
Forwarders are strongly protesting as WiseTech Global, owner of CargoWise—widely used software for freight operations, accounting, and customer management—introduces a new ‘Value Pack’ pricing model. Observers predict CargoWise usage costs could rise 20-50% compared to previous rates. The backlash stems from CargoWise's high ‘lock-in’ rate. Industry estimates place CargoWise's market share at 70%, and WiseTech itself states that “24 of the world's top 25 global forwarders are customers.” WiseTech holds a market capitalization of $16 billion and is assessed to wield relatively stronger dominance than its largest client, DSV. Its unrivaled position makes it extremely difficult for forwarders to switch from CargoWise to other systems. Competitors like Descartes, Softlink, Magaya, GoFreight, and regional players such as Riege are unable to pose a significant challenge to WiseTech. WiseTech acquired E2open for $2.1 billion in May, expanding into the shipper market and putting additional pressure on forwarders. It remains highly noteworthy whether WiseTech can maintain its customer base despite the backlash.

Air freight rates from Asia to the Americas rise in first week of December... China→US hits highest level this year (WorldAcd)
Global air freight spot rates rose 3% week-on-week for Week 49 (December 1-7), with Asian-origin routes to the US showing particularly strong gains. China→US spot rates hit a yearly high of $6.82/kg, up 8% week-on-week and exceeding last year's levels. Overall Asia-Pacific→US spot rates also rose 6% week-on-week to $6.32/kg, driven by a sharp 26% surge in rates from Japan. Volume for Asia-Pacific→US routes was flat (0%) week-on-week, with increases from China, Hong Kong, Japan, and Korea, but an 8% decrease from Thailand and Malaysia. Meanwhile, India→US routes have maintained a high year-on-year growth rate over recent weeks, showing signs of gradual recovery from the slowdown following tariff hikes.

Meanwhile, according to sources at major Asian airlines, e-commerce volumes from China have

now fully recovered to pre-tariff levels imposed by President Trump. AI-related shipments like

semiconductors, servers, and telecommunications equipment, along with beauty products like

cosmetics, are surging significantly, driving the peak air cargo season. This trend is expected to

continue into 2026.

Amazon Pursues ‘One-Hour’ Pickup Service
Amazon announced it is preparing a ‘one-hour’ pickup service, allowing customers to collect orders in-store within an hour of placing them. Major retailers are investing in rapid delivery models to immediately respond to rising customer demand. Amazon aims to secure customers through this pickup service and plans to pilot it by early 2026.