US Logistics Update [Aug 29, 2026]-English

On the 26th, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) of the U.S. Department of Commerce announced that the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index for July rose 3.7% year-over-year, while the core PCE price index—which excludes volatile food and energy prices to reflect underlying inflationary pressures—rose 3.3% year-over-year. The PCE inflation rate, which the Federal Reserve uses as a benchmark for setting the benchmark interest rate, has consistently exceeded the Fed’s 2% target since peaking at 7.2% in 2022, drawing attention to the Fed’s actions regarding benchmark interest rate adjustments. In this context, Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh—who has long advocated for reduced communication, arguing that “forward guidance,” which signals the interest rate path to the market in advance, can distort market prices—stated in a speech at the economic policy symposium held in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, on the 28th: “My standard is this: We must be confident that underlying inflation is moving toward the target at a clear and sufficient pace,” adding, “Otherwise, we have work to do.” This suggests that interest rates could be raised if inflation does not slow down. Although market concerns over the Fed’s abandonment of “forward guidance” have been alleviated, experts analyze that Chairman Warsh faces a dilemma: raising interest rates could lead to a clash with the Trump administration, while keeping them frozen could cause the market to lose confidence in the Fed’s commitment to combating inflation.

According to the second estimate (preliminary figures) released on the 26th by the U.S. Department of Commerce’s Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. real gross domestic product (GDP) grew at an annualized rate of 1.5 percent. Specifically, personal consumption expenditures—which account for more than two-thirds of the U.S. economy—rose by 3.4 percent on an annualized basis, and business investment in industrial facilities also increased by 8.5 percent, exceeding experts’ expectations. However, growth slowed compared to the 2.1% growth rate recorded in the previous quarter (Q1). The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) analyzed that despite trade conflicts, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and and a sharp rise in Treasury yields, the global economy continues to show resilience, with the AI investment boom at its core. Citing economic experts in its report on the 28th, the WSJ warned that while AI investment is a key driver of U.S. economic growth and is fueling strong exports across Asia, the global economy could suddenly be exposed to vulnerabilities if the AI-driven demand engine cools or loses momentum. Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs, a major U.S. investment bank, reported that even amid the war in the Middle East, crude oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have recovered to two-thirds of pre-war levels (15–16 million barrels per day), thanks to an increase in risky shipments—such as operating tankers with tracking devices turned off or secretly transferring oil in the middle of the ocean. Consequently, Goldman Sachs forecasts that even if the Middle East conflict drags on, the likelihood of oil prices surging again is low. With all eyes on the outcome of the September Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting—where the Fed is expected to make a decision in response to inflationary pressures—there is also intense focus on how oil prices, widely regarded as a key driver of inflation, will trend.

North American Vessel Dwell Times 

U.S. Trucking Market Sees Freight Rates Soar Due to Supply Shortages… Largest Structural Shift Since 1980 Expected

As the U.S. trucking market rapidly tightens due to a contraction in supply, spot freight rates have risen by the largest margin since 2021. According to the latest trucking market outlook report (Curve) released by RXO, a major U.S. logistics company, second-quarter spot trucking rates (excluding fuel) surged 32.4% year-over-year, significantly outpacing the 16.5% increase in the first quarter and marking the largest increase since 2021. During the same period, trucking operating costs (excluding fuel) rose by 29% compared to 2021. The report also forecasts that 20–25% of total transport capacity could disappear from the market as stricter federal regulations accelerate the exit of carriers from the industry. Although demand remains weak, freight rates are surging erratically due to the contraction in supply, with increases of up to 30–50% annually in some states. The report anticipates that the market will tighten further through the third quarter and into year-end, assessing this trend as the most significant structural shift since the industry’s deregulation in 1980 and forecasting that it will have a major impact on the cost structure and contracting practices of the trucking market going forward.

Fuel Surcharges: Beyond Customer Burden, a Source of Revenue for Carriers

Recently, concerns have emerged in the logistics industry that fuel surcharges are being used as a means for companies to boost profits, going beyond their original purpose. A prime example is Union Pacific, which collected more in surcharges than it spent on fuel in the second quarter of this year, recording a whopping $91.1 million in additional revenue. Courier companies also reported significant profits; UPS applied a fuel surcharge of 24.25%, and FedEx applied one of 23.75%, representing a sharp increase from the 2021 average of 9%. The U.S. Postal Service (USPS), unable to withstand rising fuel costs, introduced a fuel surcharge of approximately 8% for the first time starting in April 2026—a rate that stands in stark contrast to the increases seen elsewhere. In the shipping industry, while fuel costs rose by about 30%, surcharges imposed by some container carriers soared as high as 75%, far exceeding the actual rate of increase in fuel costs. As a result, Maersk reported second-quarter earnings excluding special items of $3 billion—a $700 million increase year-over-year—significantly surpassing market expectations. Ultimately, the industry points out that while fuel surcharges were originally intended to offset fluctuations in fuel costs, they are actually serving as an additional source of revenue for carriers.

Blind Spots in Supply Chain Security: The Warning from the $2 Million Nike Theft

The recent theft of $2 million worth of Nike products has once again brought the vulnerabilities in supply chain security to the forefront. According to industry sources, the incident occurred at a major logistics hub in the United States, where a criminal organization reportedly used sophisticated methods to steal a large quantity of high-priced sneakers. This represents a significant loss for a single incident, and given that annual cargo theft in the U.S. amounts to billions of dollars, it is viewed as a case that highlights structural problems across the entire supply chain. This incident has drawn attention because it reveals that “visibility”—a concept the logistics industry has long emphasized—may not be sufficient to prevent actual security incidents. Currently, most supply chains rely on verifying the status of cargo only at specific checkpoints, such as warehouse intake and shipment, terminal transit, and delivery completion. During the time in between, the cargo is effectively out of sight, making it difficult to immediately detect theft or loss even if it occurs. In particular, existing tracking systems focus on locating vehicles or containers. In other words, while it is possible to confirm that a truck is traveling along its scheduled route, it is difficult to verify whether the actual products loaded onto it are still present. As a result, theft is often not discovered until after a delivery failure or inventory discrepancy occurs, and it is not uncommon for a response to begin only hours or even days after the incident. Consequently, experts are proposing “item-level tracking” as a new solution for supply chain security. This is because if the location and movement status can be verified at the individual product level—rather than at the vehicle or container level—anomalies can be detected much more quickly. Industry insiders point out that supply chain security is only truly complete when it goes beyond simply showing a vehicle’s location to verifying where the actual products are and whether they are moving along their normal routes.

The U.S. Postal Service (USPS) is moving to temporarily raise mail and package rates ahead of the year-end holiday peak season. According to the USPS, it plans to raise rates from October 4 through January 17 of next year in preparation for the holiday season, when it handles its highest volume of mail and packages of the year. To this end, the USPS Board of Governors has submitted a rate increase proposal to the Postal Regulatory Commission (PRC), which plans to make a final decision on whether to approve it shortly. Under the proposed plan, rates will vary depending on the type of delivery service, package weight, and shipping distance. For “Priority Mail” and “USPS Ground Advantage,” rates are set to increase by a minimum of 50 cents to a maximum of $3.90, depending on weight. A key feature of this proposed increase is the significant rise in long-distance shipping rates: Priority Mail rates are set to increase from $1 to a maximum of $9.10 depending on weight, while Ground Advantage rates are expected to rise from 75 cents to $7.50. “Priority Mail Express,” a next-day delivery service, is set to increase by a minimum of $1.40 to a maximum of $20.80, depending on the destination and weight.