US Logistics Update [Apr 4, 2026]-English

Due to disruptions in crude oil supplies through the Strait of Hormuz caused by the conflict between the U.S. and Iran, U.S. diesel prices have been rising for 13 consecutive weeks. The average diesel price in the U.S. for the month of March was $4.081 per gallon, marking a $1.50 increase in most states compared to pre-war levels. On a daily basis, prices have already surpassed $5 per gallon, with some states, such as Arizona and Nevada, even seeing daily prices exceed $6. Oil prices continue to rise and remain high as expectations that tensions would ease soon have faded following President Trump’s announcement of the most intense attack yet against Iran. The sharp rise in fuel costs, such as diesel and gasoline, is simultaneously increasing President Trump’s political burden and fueling concerns about inflation in the U.S. According to related studies, a $1 increase in gasoline prices causes consumers to view the economic situation 5% more negatively, drawing attention to President Trump’s response ahead of the midterm elections. 

On the 2nd, the Trump administration issued a proclamation strengthening Section 232 measures on steel, aluminum, copper, and related derivative products. Under this measure, effective April 6, 2026, a 25% tariff will be imposed on steel, aluminum, and copper products, as well as certain derivative products, based on the total customs value of the product rather than the 50% metal content threshold. Experts point out that while the tariff rate has decreased, the burden may actually increase due to the tariff being applied based on the total product value. For example, if a washing machine costs $1,000 and the value of its steel components is $200, previously only 50% of the $200 (or $100) was subject to the tariff. Now, however, a 25% tariff ($250) will be imposed on the entire $1,000 washing machine, regardless of the steel content. Meanwhile, the U.S. has established a temporary exemption of around 15% until the end of 2027 for certain industrial equipment, power, and power grid equipment deemed essential, and announced that a lower tariff rate of 10% will apply to overseas-produced goods manufactured exclusively from U.S.-made steel, aluminum, and copper. Additionally, regarding duty drawback for metal products, the administration stated that refunds would be limited to cases where the products were smelted and cast in countries with which the U.S. has a Free Trade Agreement (FTA).

In the pharmaceutical sector, a separate official announcement was made on April 2, 2026, stating that a 100% Section 232 tariff would be imposed on patented drugs and related raw materials. The effective dates were specified as July 31, 2026, for large corporations and September 29, 2026, for other companies. However, pharmaceutical tariffs also include exceptions and differential rates. Companies that have received approval for onshore production plans will be subject to a 20% tariff, while companies that simultaneously conclude onshore production agreements and MFN (Most Favored Nation) drug pricing agreements will be subject to a 0% tariff until January 20, 2029. By country, a 15% tariff applies to products from South Korea, Japan, the EU, and Switzerland/Liechtenstein, while a 10% tariff applies to products from the UK. Generics, biosimilars, and related raw materials are currently excluded from the scope, and tariff drawback is also available.

Nonfarm payrolls rose by 178,000 in March, significantly exceeding the forecast of 59,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% (see graph above) from 4.4% in February, instantly dispelling concerns about a weakening job market due to the Iran conflict. However, the labor force participation rate fell slightly to 61.9% from 62.0% in February, suggesting that the decline in the unemployment rate may have been driven more by a reduction in the labor supply than by an increase in employment. Market attention is now shifting from employment to inflation; immediately following the release of the employment data, the CME Group’s Fed Watch reflected an 81% probability that the Fed will keep the benchmark interest rate at its current level of 3.50–3.75% through December.

North American Vessel Dwell Times

Tighter U.S. DOT and FMCSA Enforcement Expected to Reduce Truck Supply and Drive Up Freight Rates

At the Mid-America Trucking Show (MATS) held last week, U.S. Secretary of Transportation Sean Duffy and the FMCSA clearly outlined their policy of intensifying enforcement in the trucking market. Key measures include stricter English proficiency standards, a reduction in non-domiciled CDLs, the crackdown on substandard CDL training institutions and ghost/fraudulent trucking companies, and the removal of trucking companies that fail to comply with ELD regulations. The DOT reaffirmed its “no English, no license” policy, and the FMCSA’s 2026 non-domiciled CDL regulations will significantly narrow the eligibility of truck drivers to H-2A, H-2B, and E-2 visa holders. The industry anticipates a simultaneous decline in the influx of new drivers and a reduction in existing capacity. Experts estimate that approximately 200,000 CDL holders will be forced out of the market due to these non-domiciled CDL regulations, and the FMCSA has already effectively removed more than 7,000 driver training schools from the market. Additionally, the FMCSA recently revoked the registrations of numerous drivers for non-compliance with ELD regulations. This action is highly likely to lead to a structural contraction in U.S. trucking supply and rising freight rates; Administrator Duffy also noted that eliminating fraudulent and non-compliant carriers could drive up spot rates. Consequently, U.S. trucking rates are expected to rise gradually as the market reorganizes around compliant, legitimate trucking companies.

Uber–Rivian $1.25 Billion Bet… Accelerating the Shift to Urban Autonomous Driving and Last-Mile Logistics

Uber has formalized its collaboration with Rivian on robotaxis and autonomous driving by investing up to $1.25 billion in Rivian. In the first phase, 10,000 fully autonomous vehicles based on the R2 model are scheduled to be deployed in San Francisco and Miami by 2028. Industry analysts note that this investment secures funding for Rivian to expand production, while enabling Uber to establish the foundation for a large-scale autonomous driving network. Going forward, the two companies are expected to combine Uber’s platform with Rivian’s integrated capabilities in electric vehicles, manufacturing, and software to reduce reliance on human labor in cities and improve operational efficiency. In the long term, there is significant potential for autonomous driving to expand beyond passenger transportation to the last-mile sector. Uber’s moves to challenge the last-mile dominance of UPS and FedEx, following in Amazon’s footsteps, are drawing significant attention.

Uncertainty in the Air Cargo Market Deepens Due to Soaring Fuel Costs and Supply Disruptions

JOC reports that since the outbreak of the war in the Middle East, jet fuel prices have nearly doubled, causing the global air cargo market to currently face a situation where supply contraction and rising freight rates are occurring simultaneously. Even before the war, jet fuel was a key cost accounting for over 30% of airlines’ total operating expenses. This surge has sharply worsened the profitability of fuel-inefficient aircraft models, particularly the B747-400F, and if the cost burden persists, there is a high likelihood of flight reductions or route withdrawals on some routes. As the strategic functions of Middle Eastern hubs—such as Dubai and Doha—that connected the Americas, Europe, and Asia have been weakened by the war, air cargo capacity in the region has dropped to about 30% of pre-conflict levels as of the fifth week of the war. Compounded by fuel supply instability, this has led to a further contraction in supply. Specifically, as China and Thailand have halted jet fuel exports, Vietnam—which relied on these two countries for two-thirds of its jet fuel supply—has begun reducing domestic flights. South Korea has also implemented refueling restrictions, and the Philippines has declared a national energy emergency. The current market is facing simultaneous supply pressures from soaring costs, fuel procurement instability, and airspace disruptions. As a result, global air cargo spot rates in March rose to $2.86 per kg, surpassing 2025 peak season levels and reaching their highest point since December 2024. The increase was particularly sharp on routes heavily reliant on Middle Eastern carriers; spot rates for South Asia and Southeast Asia to the Middle East surged by 50–100% as of March 29 compared to just four weeks prior, while rates for South Asia to North America rose by approximately 75%. Routes from Northeast Asia and Southeast Asia to North America also saw double-digit increases. The industry is concerned that if the conflict drags on, the current supply issues could escalate beyond a mere regional problem into a structural cost issue that burdens global air cargo demand.

IATA Launches ‘DG Digital,’ a Solution for Fully Digitizing Dangerous Goods Declarations

IATA (International Air Transport Association) has officially launched ‘DG Digital,’ a new solution that expands upon the existing DG AutoCheck to fully digitize the dangerous goods declaration process. Moving away from the traditional method of filling out forms on paper, scanning them, and uploading PDFs, the entire process—from creation to transmission to verification—is now handled digitally. The solution covers over 3,800 dangerous goods items, including lithium batteries, chemicals, and explosives, and enables pre-verification before airlines accept and approve shipments. In other words, by automatically cross-referencing against the IATA Dangerous Goods Regulations (DGR), errors or omissions in documentation can be identified in advance, before the actual goods are shipped. IATA expects the global average DG rejection rate to improve from 4.5% to 0.5%. For reference, dangerous goods air cargo increased by 17.5% year-over-year as of 2025, with a particularly significant rise in lithium battery shipments.