US Logistics Update [Apr 25, 2026]-English

JP Morgan, one of the world’s largest investment banks, released a report summarizing key global macroeconomic issues discussed at the 2026 IMF/World Bank Spring Meetings held last week. The IMF and World Bank Spring Meetings, where finance ministers, central bank governors, international organizations, and corporate leaders from around the world gather, are among the most important events shaping global economic policy and market outlook. JP Morgan’s analysis is highly trusted in international financial markets and serves as an authoritative reference for institutional investors and policymakers. Below is a summary of the key points; please refer to the attached “JP Morgan Report” for the full text.

The report’s central theme is what it calls “The Great Disconnect.” It notes that while a complex crisis—including geopolitical conflicts, energy supply instability, U.S.-China strategic competition, and U.S. fiscal risks—is escalating, financial markets continue to favor risky assets. The IMF assessed that global uncertainty has doubled, yet the report points out that markets are repeating a pattern of rebounding rapidly after short-term corrections.

The biggest short-term risk factor is, as expected, the situation in Iran and the Strait of Hormuz. The report warns that if the normalization of the Strait of Hormuz is delayed, OECD crude oil inventories could reach operational minimum levels between May 9 and 30. In this scenario, the analysis suggests that oil price increases could lead not to a gradual rise but to a sharp spike. In particular, the fact that Iran is attempting to prioritize passage by demanding a “security fee” of around $2 million from some vessels is cited as a factor that could drive up future shipping costs and insurance premiums.

The AI investment boom is still considered a key driver of growth in the global market. The report forecasts that global data center investment could expand to over $5 trillion by 2030. However, power infrastructure was identified as the biggest bottleneck; connecting to power grids in major regions could take up to seven years, and power infrastructure costs could account for 40–50% of the total data center project budget. Furthermore, capital expenditures by the top 30 AI companies are expected to reach approximately $750 billion by the end of 2026, surpassing the $630 billion projected for the remaining 470 S&P companies. 

Analysts note that energy security has also emerged as a key investment theme. China currently holds about 120 days’ worth of energy reserves, and to expand this to 365 days’ worth, it would need to nearly double its storage capacity. In the Middle East, more than 60 processing facilities, terminals, and oil and gas installations have been damaged, with reconstruction costs estimated at up to $60 billion; analysis also suggests that it could take 3 to 5 years for Qatar to fully restore its production capacity.

Regarding U.S.-China relations, the report assesses the current situation as a temporary and unstable strategic truce rather than a full-scale conflict. It explains that a short-term period of stability has emerged following expectations of negotiations and summit meetings, after U.S.-China tariff rates had previously been discussed at levels as high as 145%. However, the report analyzes that China still holds strong leverage in key supply chains—such as rare earths, magnets, and active pharmaceutical ingredients (APIs)—while the U.S.’s actual leverage is limited to the dollar and advanced computing.

Regarding the dollar and U.S. Treasuries, “gradual diversification” is cited as a more accurate description than “de-dollarization.” The report assesses that the dollar’s status as a reserve currency remains intact, noting that approximately 95% of stablecoins are still dollar-backed.

In an investor survey regarding the U.S. midterm elections, 45% of respondents predicted a simultaneous Democratic victory in both the House and Senate, while 38% forecast a scenario with a Democratic House and a Republican Senate. Only 6% of respondents believed the Republicans would maintain their majority. However, the report predicts that, regardless of the election results, fiscal spending on defense, energy infrastructure, and trade agreements is likely to increase.

Regarding the private credit market, the report notes that while it is difficult to view it as a systemic risk at this time, opacity, liquidity mismatches, and interconnectedness with financial institutions could amplify risks. The private credit market, in the narrow sense, was cited as being worth approximately $1 trillion, with the current default rate estimated at 2–3% and projected to rise to 5–6% under stress scenarios.

In conclusion, the report identifies energy and maritime shipping risks stemming from the Middle East, increased investment in AI power infrastructure, and the diversification of dollar-denominated assets—along with the possibility of fiscal expansion following the U.S. midterm elections—as key monitoring points for the global market in the second half of 2026. Meanwhile, while financial markets continue to favor risk assets, the report warns that geopolitical risks and supply chain shocks may not yet be fully reflected in actual prices.

Kevin Warsh, President Trump’s nominee for the next Federal Reserve Chair, dismissed concerns about undermining the Fed’s independence during his confirmation hearing, emphasizing that he is “not Trump’s puppet.” While Warsh drew a clear line, stating he would not set interest rates based on political pressure, he simultaneously argued that the Fed’s current methods of measuring inflation and its policy communication framework require major changes. In particular, he raised concerns about the Fed’s inflation assessment method centered on the PCE price index, which the Fed has prioritized since the 2000s. He argued that simple average-based price indicators do not sufficiently reflect the burden actually felt by consumers. Warsh asserted that the Fed must utilize trimmed mean, median, and AI/big data-based analysis to gain a more sophisticated understanding of price trends. Regarding interest rate policy, he also takes a critical stance toward the existing practice of providing forward guidance. Specifically, he argues that the Fed’s practice of signaling future interest rate directions in advance can actually create market confusion and should effectively be abolished. Consequently, if Warsh were to become Fed Chair, significant changes are expected across the Fed’s entire operational framework—going beyond the simple debate over rate cuts or hikes to encompass price measurement methods, policy judgment criteria, and communication with the market. Furthermore, reiterating previous criticism that the Fed has acted beyond its mandate, he emphasized, “The Fed must remain true to its core responsibilities; its independence is most severely threatened when it intervenes in areas where it lacks authority and expertise, such as fiscal or social policy, rather than monetary policy.”

Container Imports to the U.S. Decline for 7th Consecutive Month…‘Frontloading’ Intensifies Amid Tariff Uncertainty

S&P Global Market Intelligence reported that U.S. container imports in March totaled 2.46 million TEUs, a 0.5% decrease from the same month last year, marking the seventh consecutive month of decline. However, this figure represents an increase from February’s 2.19 million TEUs. Cumulative imports to the U.S. for the first quarter of this year totaled 7.35 million TEU, a 3.8% decrease from the previous year. S&P assessed that since the second half of last year, U.S. import volumes have been gradually normalizing from the levels that surged following the pandemic. By product category, the analysis noted that imports of auto parts increased by 10.8% year-over-year and durable consumer goods rose by 16.4%, while imports of capital goods remain sluggish. Meanwhile, while the average tariff rate on U.S. imports fell to 9.0% in February, uncertainty regarding supply chain decisions persists due to the possibility that the tariff regime may be tightened again in the future. In particular, as there is speculation that the current Section 122 tariffs may be replaced by Section 301 tariffs in the future, importers are maintaining a strategy of bringing in shipments ahead of schedule to avoid potential tariff hikes. In other words, the report identifies preemptive importation of goods in anticipation of potential tariff reductions—so-called “Front-loading 2.0”—as the reason why the decline in March imports was smaller than expected. It explains that distributors with low margins, in particular, have a strong tendency to bring forward shipments to coincide with any brief period of lower tariffs. The outlook for the future is assessed as somewhat negative. As import volumes, which had been distorted by the pandemic, tariffs, and geopolitical conflicts, normalize to historical average levels, U.S.-bound import volumes are expected to decrease by 12.9% year-over-year in 2026, with a gradual recovery not anticipated until 2027.

82% of Small and Medium-Sized Businesses Pass Tariff Burden onto Customers… Price Hikes the Overwhelming Response

Market research firm Netstock announced that 82% of small and medium-sized businesses (SMBs) in the U.S. have been passing on tariff costs to customers since the start of 2026. This stands in stark contrast to the situation up until last year, when a significant number of companies had been absorbing costs internally to maintain customer prices. Key survey findings are as follows:

• 82%: Percentage of SMBs passing on tariff costs to customers

• 92%: Percentage of those companies that opted for direct price increases

• 57% → 21%: Sharp decline in the percentage of companies maintaining a “wait-and-see” strategy

• Over 70%: Percentage of companies citing cost-related issues as their top priority

• 33%: Percentage of companies that switched suppliers in the past year

• 73%: Percentage of companies establishing inventory plans with a longer-term horizon than in the past

The report analyzes that as tariff pressures persist, a simple cost-absorption strategy is no longer feasible; most companies are responding by raising prices, while some are employing supplementary measures such as reducing discounts, adjusting product mixes, and imposing surcharges.

U.S. Trucking Costs Showing Clear Uptrend… Cost Pressures Confirmed Across Freight Rate Indicators

Signs of a tightening market are becoming increasingly evident in the U.S. trucking market, with both freight volumes and rates rising simultaneously. According to the March Truckload Volume Index released by DAT Freight & Analytics, spot rates have risen to their highest levels in the past two years as fuel costs have surged following the Iran conflict. First, regarding March freight volumes, the Van Volume Index rose 12% month-over-month to 253, the Reefer Index rose 7% to 196, and the Flatbed Index rose 18% to 314, showing significant increases compared to the previous month. In March, the national average spot rates rose to $2.52 per mile for Van, $2.97 for Reefer, and $3.09 for Flatbed. Contract rates also increased month-over-month, reaching $2.72 for Van, $3.10 for Reefer, and $3.43 for Flatbed. According to the TD Cowen/AFS Index, the per-load line-haul cost for U.S. trucking in the first quarter of this year rose 10.2% year-over-year. This trend of rising freight rates is also reflected in the U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI), which stood at 177.8 in March—a 4.3% increase from the previous year—marking the first year-over-year increase since February 2025.

Industry observers interpret these indicators as a sign of a cost rebound in the U.S. trucking market. In particular, with upward pressure emerging in both contract and spot rates, they anticipate that additional costs will need to be factored into future quotes for U.S. inland transportation and long-term logistics cost calculations. 

Walmart Tests In-Store Storage of Marketplace Inventory in Dallas

Walmart has launched a new pilot project to store inventory from third-party sellers (i.e., Marketplace sellers) directly in its stores to speed up delivery. This trial is being conducted at stores in the Dallas area, utilizing backrooms to store seller inventory. Sellers retain ownership of the inventory and pay Walmart a commission and shipping-related costs only when a sale is made. Walmart has already converted thousands of stores into regional logistics hubs to handle pickups and deliveries; the goal of this pilot is to verify whether same-day delivery is feasible for Walmart Marketplace products. If successful, Walmart expects to significantly narrow the delivery speed gap with competitors like Amazon by leveraging the advantages of its existing brick-and-mortar store network.

U.S. Department of Justice Pursues Antitrust Lawsuit Against Major Egg Producers Over Skyrocketing Egg Prices

The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Department of Justice is investigating whether some major egg producers colluded to raise egg prices during the 2024–2025 period, when egg supplies were reduced due to the spread of avian influenza. The investigation reportedly includes major U.S. egg producers such as Cal-Maine Foods and Versova. While the egg industry attributed the price surge at the time to supply shortages caused by avian influenza and high demand, the Department of Justice suspects that the companies may have influenced prices by sharing price information through price analysis services like Expana and setting benchmark prices. In the U.S., the average retail price for a dozen eggs surged to over $6 last spring, but as avian influenza outbreaks have since subsided, recent retail egg prices have fallen by about 45% compared to the same period last year.

UPS Shifts Focus from Low-Profit Deliveries to ‘High-Profit Returns’

Global logistics giant UPS is drawing industry attention by scaling back low-margin e-commerce deliveries and focusing on the $760 billion annual U.S. returns market. Through its subsidiary “Happy Returns,” UPS recently added 1,700 return drop-off locations, establishing a nationwide network of 10,000 return points. The company is increasing its market share by creating a system where consumers can return items simply by bringing them in, without needing to repackage them. UPS’s focus on returns is driven by profitability. While standard deliveries require individual visits to each household, returns allow for “consolidation”—where items collected at hubs are bundled together and sent to processing facilities—resulting in significantly higher margins.