US Logistics Update [Apr 18, 2026]-English

Goldman Sachs has analyzed that, despite significantly rising expectations for a ceasefire and an end to the war, the global energy market is poised to undergo fundamental structural changes rather than merely experiencing short-term shocks. Specifically, the firm forecasts that oil prices will remain at around $80 per barrel by the end of this year—a level significantly higher than the pre-war estimate of $62—and expects this to become a “New Normal” in which high oil prices are structurally entrenched, moving beyond a mere short-term price shock. In the long term, the report forecasts that countries vulnerable to future energy supply shocks are likely to consider expanding investment in domestic energy resources and increasing strategic reserves, and that strengthening energy security will emerge as a global policy priority. Meanwhile, disruptions in crude oil supply have reduced oil flows to 5–10% below normal levels, causing the global crude oil market to face a supply shock with a daily shortfall of over 12 million barrels. This energy supply-demand shock is expected to reduce global GDP by 0.4 percentage points. In the natural gas market, while China’s reduced LNG imports temporarily alleviated rising LNG prices in the European market, the European energy market is expected to remain in a state of high prices and tension in the medium term due to increased winter demand and the need to replenish storage levels. Meanwhile, while nuclear power has growth potential as a clean energy source, there are skeptical views regarding it—due to high costs and long construction periods in the U.S., and political opposition in Europe.

The U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP) is scheduled to officially launch CAPE Phase 1 on April 20. This marks the first step toward automating IEEPA duty refunds; system performance and scenario-based refund testing are currently underway, and CBP plans to submit an additional update to the Court of International Trade (CIT) on April 28. Phase 1 will process only unliquidated customs entries and those filed within 80 days of liquidation; Drawback, Reconciliation, and appeals cases are excluded. All refunds will be processed exclusively through the ACE portal, and the Post Summary Correction (PSC) method, which was frequently used in the past, will not be permitted. As of April 9, 56,497 importers and refund recipients have completed electronic refund registration. While the refund processing period was mentioned as approximately 45 days, a specific payment schedule has not yet been finalized. CAPE Phase 1 is expected to cover about 63% of all eligible recipients, but the timing and procedures for the remaining 37% remain unclear. For pre-liquidation refunds under AD/CVD (anti-dumping and countervailing duty) orders, manual processing is still required, which is expected to place a significant burden on CBP operations. While some refunds may be processed quickly, a significant number could face prolonged delays. The industry is concerned that, with the ACE portal already under significant strain, the influx of 53 million customs clearance refund claims from 330,000 importers will inevitably lead to system bottlenecks and delays.

Meanwhile, as the CBP’s refund system (CAPE) prepares to go live, companies are considering three approaches. First, Option A involves applying for immediate refunds by including IEEPA under the existing Drawback program rather than CAPE. While this approach offers an expected recovery rate of approximately 99% and funds are deposited into accounts within 3 to 4 weeks, it has the drawback of potentially being somewhat slower than CAPE refunds. Option B involves processing IEEPA refunds through the CAPE system, which offers a 100% refund rate but results in delayed initial cash inflows and requires verification of system stability. Option C is a hybrid strategy that combines both approaches, recovering a portion immediately through the existing drawback system and processing the remainder via CAPE. While this allows for securing both short-term liquidity and long-term efficiency, it has the drawback of increased administrative complexity.

North American Vessel Dwell Times

Port Tracker Forecasts Decline vs. Descartes Reports Rebound; Demand Remains Strong

According to the recently released National Retail Federation (NRF) Global Port Tracker report, import container volume at major U.S. ports in February was 1.95 million TEUs, down 7.5% month-over-month and 4.2% year-over-year, with further declines of 8.3% and 5.6% expected in March and April, respectively. Total volume for the first half of the year is also projected to decline by 1.8% year-over-year. Since the data is from February, prior to the Iran conflict, the situation in Iran is not a direct cause of the decline in volume; however, it is noted that starting in March, the sharp rise in fuel prices caused by the war will drive up global shipping costs and dampen demand. In contrast, the Descartes Global Shipping Report announced that in its March performance figures, container imports to the U.S. rebounded by 12.4% month-over-month to 2,353,611 TEU. Although this represents a 1.1% decrease year-over-year, it is the fourth-highest monthly record on record, and the report assesses that the rebound in March following February’s decline demonstrates that seasonal patterns are functioning normally. It also noted that U.S. demand remains robust despite policy uncertainty and geopolitical tensions, recording a level 32.3% higher than in 2019, which is still significantly higher than pre-pandemic levels.

Fuel Surcharges Soar, Doubt in Surcharge Structure Grows

In April, the average price of diesel in the U.S. soared to $5.64 per gallon, a sharp increase from $3.76 before the war began. In California, prices have exceeded $7, placing a massive burden on the entire transportation industry. This situation is highly likely to lead to rising shipping costs → pressure on consumer prices → and further inflation. This surge in oil prices has led to increases in fuel surcharges by transportation companies, including trucking and rail firms. For example, Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL), a leading LTL carrier, recently set its fuel surcharge rate at 44.32% of freight rates—a significant increase from 26.82% a year ago. In container drayage, the surcharge rate has also risen to 67.9%. The issue lies in distrust of the surcharge structure. Small shippers point out the unfairness, noting that while fuel surcharges are quickly applied when prices spike, adjustments are slow to follow when prices fall. However, small and medium-sized shippers lack bargaining power, making it difficult for them to respond. Experts state that “fuel surcharges have deviated from their original purpose and have effectively become a means of raising freight rates,” assessing that the recent surge in diesel prices is not merely a cost increase but is simultaneously fueling distrust in the fuel surcharge structure and inflationary pressures.

FMC Launches Investigation into Shipping Practices for Dangerous Goods and Radioactive Cargo

The U.S. Federal Maritime Commission (FMC) announced that it is investigating shipping companies’ practices regarding the export of dangerous goods and radioactive materials. The FMC stated that it is launching a non-adjudicatory investigation to determine whether U.S. exporters are being discriminated against by shipping companies. The investigation will cover 11 major shipping lines operating U.S. routes, as well as terminal operators, port authorities, and freight forwarders. In particular, the FMC plans to review whether instances of carriers refusing to transport dangerous goods and radioactive cargo authorized for export by U.S. exporters, as well as the existence of exclusive contracts with specific packers or carriers, constitute “fair and reasonable practices.” In 2025, dangerous goods exports from the U.S. totaled approximately 1.2 million TEUs, a 4.6% increase from the previous year. The FMC’s investigation aims to protect dangerous goods exporters and ensure transparency in carrier practices, and is likely to lead to stricter regulations and changes in shipping contract structures in the future.

FedEx Freight to Spin Off and Go Public on June 1

FedEx Freight will spin off as an independent publicly traded company (FDXF) on June 1, as scheduled. FedEx Freight is the largest player in the North American LTL (less-than-truckload) market, with revenue of $9.1 billion in 2024. Over the past two decades, FedEx Freight surprised the market by rapidly establishing a nationwide network through acquisitions of Viking Freight, American Freightways, and Watkins Motor Lines, and quickly rising to become the industry leader. Following the spin-off, FedEx Freight aims to achieve annual revenue of $8.7 billion and operating income of $1.1 billion (an operating margin of 12%). FedEx Freight announced that it has established a dedicated LTL sales team of 500 members to focus on key high-margin customer segments, including profitable small and medium-sized businesses, healthcare, food, data centers, and energy. The industry anticipates that this move will trigger a competition for customer acquisition rather than price competition, forecasting a “fierce battle for market share to retain profitable customers.”

UPS to Fully Implement RFID… Enhancing Tracking Accuracy and Efficiency

UPS plans to fully roll out an RFID-based cargo tracking system across the United States. Since RFID tags automatically detect a shipment’s location during transit, this is expected to significantly reduce reliance on manual barcode scanning while improving accuracy. UPS plans to embed RFID tags in shipping labels and install sensors at distribution centers, vehicles, and UPS Stores to provide customers with near-real-time package location information. UPS stated that it has been testing RFID technology and noted that this technology has reduced misloads by approximately 70% and is expected to eliminate millions of manual scans per day. UPS’s RFID expansion is the first nationwide commercial deployment of RFID by a major courier company, and it is expected to have a significant impact by reducing shipping delays and misdeliveries while improving tracking reliability. This move is expected to have ripple effects not only on FedEx and DHL but across the entire industry.