US Logistics Update [Apr 11, 2026]-English

The U.S. Department of Labor announced that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for March rose 3.3% compared to March of last year, driven by a sharp increase in gasoline prices. This is significantly higher than the 2.4% recorded in February before the war and more than 1.3 percentage points above the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) inflation target of 2%. Fortunately, core inflation in March—excluding food and energy prices—rose by 2.6%, lower than the initial forecast of 2.7%, indicating that prices excluding energy remained stable. Meanwhile, tariff pressures eased for some items following the U.S. Supreme Court’s ruling invalidating tariffs imposed by the Trump administration. Specifically, prices for household furniture fell 0.2% month-over-month, and prices for video and audio products dropped 0.8%. Although the consumer price index rose at its fastest pace since 2022, causing market anxiety, core inflation—which the Fed closely monitors—remained relatively stable. Experts noted, “There are no signs yet that high oil prices have translated into core inflation,” but expressed concern about inflationary pressures should the war drag on, adding, “While companies may absorb much of the initial shock, they could be gradually affected over time.”

The University of Michigan, a leading U.S. consumer sentiment research institution, reported that its April Consumer Sentiment Index—surveyed from March 24 to April 7—fell from 53.3 in March to 47.6, marking the lowest level since the pandemic began in 2022 (see graph below). In particular, consumers expect prices to rise by an annualized rate of 4.8% over the next year—a 1 percentage point increase from March and the largest jump since President Trump announced massive tariffs a year ago—indicating that U.S. consumers are deeply concerned about rising inflation caused by the war in Iran. Meanwhile, according to the minutes of the March Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting released on the 8th, the Fed maintained its outlook for interest rate cuts this year during the March meeting, despite uncertainties surrounding the Iran conflict and tariffs. Most committee members believed that the need for accommodative monetary policy could increase if rising oil prices put pressure on employment and consumption, and emphasized the need for a flexible response given that inflation remains above target while employment has stalled. They were assessed as taking a cautious stance regarding the potential for consumption to contract due to a weakening labor market and high oil prices, while judging that interest rate cuts could be appropriate if inflation slows as expected.

Key Updates on IEEPA Tariff Refunds

Judge Richard Eaton of the U.S. Court of International Trade (CIT) has substituted Euro-Notions Florida as the plaintiff following the voluntary dismissal of the original plaintiff in the IEEPA tariff refund class action lawsuit, and has reissued the existing tariff refund order to make it more specific and clear. The key provision of this order is that it requires CBP to process refunds for the entire range of entries, including those that are pending, in the process of finalization, and those that have already been finalized. However, actual enforcement is currently suspended until the completion of CAPE, CBP’s automated refund system. CBP is scheduled to submit an additional report on the progress of CAPE development on April 14, and the content of this report is expected to serve as a key indicator for determining the actual start date and scope of the refund process.

Carrier Schedule Reliability

* Sea Intelligence data

Movement to Halt Data Center Construction in the U.S. Deals a Direct Blow to the Project Cargo Market

Concerns are mounting that the project cargo market will be severely impacted as movements to temporarily suspend the construction of large-scale data centers spread across the United States. Currently, federal, state, and local governments across the U.S. are pushing for moratoriums (construction halts) citing power consumption and environmental concerns. Maine has introduced a bill banning the construction of facilities consuming 20MW or more of power until 2027, while some states, including New Orleans, North Carolina, and Wisconsin, have already implemented temporary bans. At the federal level, Senator Bernie Sanders and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez have introduced a bill to halt the construction of AI data centers. While the likelihood of congressional passage is considered low, public opposition to data center construction is growing, and the issue is escalating. A halt in data center construction is expected to cause direct disruptions to project cargo transportation. Most critical equipment, such as transformers, switchgear, and batteries, is supplied from China. Due to tariffs and long lead times (24–30 months), nearly half of U.S. data centers are expected to face delays or cancellations. Additional costs, such as storage and relocation, are inevitable for equipment already in production or in transit. Global data center investment is expected to reach $7 trillion by 2030. There are currently 4,088 data centers in the U.S., with Virginia (579) and Texas (411) being the largest clusters. Meanwhile, DHL has announced plans to expand its operations in North America by adding 10 new warehouses totaling 7 million square feet to address this uncertainty.

U.S. Consumer Electronics Imports Face Risk of Slowing Growth

The JOC reported that the U.S. consumer electronics import market in 2026 is expected to have a significant impact on the logistics industry due to rising energy costs and soaring memory prices. According to PIERS data, U.S. electronics imports this year have already declined by 2.2% year-over-year due to shrinking consumer spending caused by a decrease in household disposable income. In particular, memory prices have surged by 400% year-over-year in recent months due to soaring demand from data centers. This has led to price increases not only for laptops and tablets but for most electronics, resulting in a growing number of shippers renegotiating shipping contracts or delaying shipments. Meanwhile, China’s share of U.S. electronics imports has decreased from 56.6% in 2020 to 40.7% in 2025, while Vietnam’s share has expanded from 10.1% to 18.1% over the same period. For large TVs, production has become increasingly concentrated in Mexico, driving up demand for overland transport within North America, while small products still rely primarily on sea freight from China and Southeast Asia, indicating significant shifts in sourcing patterns by country. U.S. electronics imports have declined in three of the past four years. With rising prices due to the Iran conflict driving up spending on essentials like food, concerns are mounting about a structural slowdown in electronics demand, fueled by delayed purchases and a sharp surge in memory prices.

U.S.-Iran Ceasefire Insufficient to Normalize Middle East Air Cargo

Despite the two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the United States and Iran, international airlines remain hesitant to resume flights to the Middle East. Experts view this ceasefire as a “temporary easing” rather than a “resumption of operations” and predict that instability in the air cargo market will persist for the time being. Major carriers such as Cathay Pacific, Lufthansa, and British Airways have suspended flights to Dubai until the end of May. While Air France plans to resume service on April 19 and KLM on May 17, the return of non-Gulf carriers is expected to be limited unless long-term stability is confirmed. Amid worsening supply shortages, freight rates continue to rise. Rates on the South Asia→Europe route have risen 105% over five weeks, South Asia→Middle East by 84%, and China→Middle East by 43%. Rates to the U.S. have also risen sharply, with Hong Kong-to-U.S. rates settling at $6.07, Vietnam-to-U.S. at $6.63, and China-to-U.S. at $6.22 as of last week. The industry assesses that this truce is insufficient to bring about an immediate recovery in the air cargo market, and that rising rates and supply chain instability are unlikely to be resolved in the short term.